This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Women begin third-round singles play Saturday at the Miami Open, while men wrap up second-round action. A couple of Americans are on upset alert, while a talented teenager has a chance to continue her resurgence and men's seeds from the top half of the draw take the court for the first time.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Lorenzo Sonego (+475) vs. Taylor Fritz
Fritz has struggled with the pressure of carrying a top-five ranking in 2025. The third-seeded American has a 6-4 record since the start of the Australian Open, and just a 2-4 mark against top-60 opponents, with three of those losses against players ranked outside the top 40. Sonego hasn't done much since reaching his first career Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open, but the 38th-ranked Italian has a solid all-court game and plenty of big-match experience. Fritz leads their head-to-head 4-2, including 3-0 on hard courts, but Sonego's a nice value as a significant underdog with all the pressure on the American here.
Matteo Arnaldi (+150) vs. Tomas Machac
Machac was dealing with an illness a couple weeks ago which forced him to retire mid-match against Yosuke Watanuki in Indian Wells, so it's fair to wonder where the 21st-ranked Czech's fitness is. Playing in the South Florida heat and humidity likely won't help in that regard, and Arnaldi isn't an easy opponent on top of that. The 35th-ranked Italian just missed being seeded here, but that's arguably an advantage now as he got a chance to acclimate to the conditions in a 7-6 (3), 4-6, 6-3 first-round win over Yibing Wu, while this will be Machac's first action of the tournament. This is a rematch of last year's Round of 16 encounter in Miami, which a fully fit Machac won 6-3, 6-3.
Honorable Mention
Rebeka Masarova (+260) vs. Danielle Collins
Miami Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Arthur Fils (-240) vs. Gabriel Diallo
Diallo shocked Fils at the U.S. Open last year, but the 20-year-old Frenchman has raised his floor substantially since then by improving his consistency and shot selection. That improvement was on display when these two met at Indian Wells earlier this month, as Fils dominated 6-2, 6-2. The 6-foot-8 Diallo should get more free points on serve here than he did in Indian Wells since the courts play faster in Miami, but Fils should dominate the rallies against the Canadian lucky loser.
Andrey Rublev (-330) vs. Zizou Bergs
Rublev has had a few uncharacteristic losses to begin the season, but the ninth-ranked Russian has a nice opportunity to get on track at this tournament, starting with a relatively comfortable second-round draw. The former Miami Open semifinalist has made plenty of deep Masters 1000 runs in his career, reaching six Masters 1000 finals and winning two of them. Rublev's significant edge in power off the ground should allow him to dictate play with his forehand against the 51st-ranked Bergs, whom Rublev defeated in straight sets last year on hard court in their only previous encounter. The 25-year-old Bergs has never advanced past the second round of a Masters 1000 event in his career.
Honorable Mention
Matteo Berrettini (-525) vs. Hugo Gaston
Miami Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Jasmine Paolini (+120) vs. Ons Jabeur
Paolini has had much better hard-court results than Jabeur since the Italian broke out at the start of last season. This is only the second time Jabeur has been past the second round of a hard-court WTA 1000 event since the start of 2024, having also made the quarterfinals of Doha last month. The Tunisian's just 6-5 in her career at the Miami Open, as her tricky slices and spins aren't quite as effective on hard courts as they are on grass or clay. Meanwhile, Paolini is into the third round in an 11th consecutive hard-court WTA 1000 event, including her title in Dubai last year. The tenacious Italian has more of an all-court game, and at 5-foot-4, Paolini won't have much trouble getting low for Jabeur's slices. Paolini has a 23-spot edge in the rankings at No. 7, and while Jabeur leads their head-to-head 2-1, Paolini won their only matchup within the last calendar year. This will be their first hard-court encounter.
Linda Fruhvirtova (+120) vs. Magda Linette
Fruhvirtova has been overshadowed by some other prominent teenagers on the WTA Tour, but it wasn't that long ago that she was considered among the best of the bunch, as the now 19-year-old Czech was the youngest player ranked in the top 50 in March of 2023 after a fourth-round showing at the Australian Open. She went through some growing pains after that and has slipped to No. 215 in the rankings but has reemerged here playing arguably the best tennis of her young career. After breezing through two qualifying matches, Fruhvirtova beat American Claire Liu in the first round, then obliterated No. 16 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia, 6-0, 6-2 in the second round. If the talented youngster plays up to her capabilities, she can certainly get by the 34th-ranked Linette, who came into this tournament with a sub-.500 record of 7-8 in 2025. These two have actually played twice before, with Fruhvirtova winning their most recent matchup in September of 2022 after losing to Linette as a 16-year-old.
Honorable Mention
Alexei Popyrin (-120) vs. Roman Safiullin
