This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Wednesday at Wimbledon will feature mostly second-round matches, with a few first-round clashes that weren't wrapped up over the first two days also on the docket. On the men's side, an American underdog will try to put some unfavorable history behind him on Centre Court, while another American is poised to capitalize on a favorable draw. Meanwhile, a pair of up-and-coming young women who have outplayed their rankings recently will look to build on impressive first-round victories. A few of the players in action Wednesday were the beneficiaries of injuries to their first-round opponents, but their luck's likely to run out in Round 2 on the grass courts of the All England Club. All match odds below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
Grass-court form can be notoriously hard to judge given the rapid transition from the slower clay to the faster grass, but recent results on all surfaces coupled with historic grass-court results and a look at playing style can usually provide an accurate approximation of a player's ability on this surface. On top of those data points, we now have another big one, having seen these players in action already in the first round. The stakes are highest at the Grand Slams, and the men play best-of-five set matches rather than the best-of-three seen at other ATP Tour events. Conditions vary from tournament to tournament, and even from day to day, but the fast pace and low bounces of grass generally favor more aggressive players, and especially those that possess big serves. Using this context can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
John Isner (+200) vs. Andy Murray
Most of Isner's matches come down to a few key points, especially on grass. While the big-serving American has struggled against Murray in the past, the current 52nd-ranked Murray with a replaced hip is a far cry from the prime Murray with elite defense and returning skills that was competing for major titles and racked up the Brit's career 8-0 head-to-head edge. Isner will face a hostile Centre Court crowd against the local favorite as these two meet for the first time since 2016, but the No. 20 seed certainly has the tools to emerge victorious and won't be intimidated by the big stage as a former Wimbledon semifinalist.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto (+200) vs. Irina-Camelia Begu
Cocciaretto's still establishing herself on the WTA Tour, but the 21-year-old Italian is quietly enjoying a strong season. She has won two ITF events in 2022 while making the final of another, and Cocciaretto just reached the final of a WTA 125-level event in her most recent action before Wimbledon. Any doubt that she belongs at the top-level tournaments was erased by Cocciaretto's 6-2, 6-0 first-round rout of French Open semifinalist Martina Trevisan. The 119th-ranked Cocciaretto will look to back up that signature win by upsetting the 43rd-ranked veteran Begu, who is just 7-9 in her career at Wimbledon.
Honorable Mention:
Magda Linette (+235) vs. Angelique Kerber
Lock It In
Frances Tiafoe (-390) vs. Maximilian Marterer
Tiafoe has a comfortable second-round draw against the 172nd-ranked Marterer. The German qualifier has already won four matches here, but all of those wins came against players ranked outside the top 100. The 28th-ranked Tiafoe presents a significant step up compared to Marterer's recent competition, and the American has proven to be a competent grass-court player. Tiafoe's seeking to reach the third round here for the third time in five main draw appearances, and he defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas at last year's Wimbledon.
Alexander Bublik (-360) vs. Dusan Lajovic
Bublik is one of the more temperamental players on the ATP Tour, but the world No. 38 has many reasons to feel good at the moment. Because he represents Kazakhstan, Bublik was able to avoid the Wimbledon ban enforced upon the Russian-born players that play under their home country's flag, allowing him to participate in the Grand Slam played on his favorite surface. Bublik's big serve and attacking style are tailor-made for grass, and he just demolished Marton Fucsovics 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 in the first round. Lajovic is an easier opponent on paper, as he's ranked five spots behind Fucsovics at No. 64 and is just 8-17 this year, including a first-round win here that came as a result of No. 16 seed Pablo Carreno Busta retiring at a set all due to a leg injury.
Honorable Mention:
Carlos Alcaraz (-295) vs. Tallon Griekspoor
Value Bet
Diane Parry (-150) vs. Mai Hontama
Parry's rapidly ascending the women's singles rankings. The 19-year-old Frenchwoman burst onto the scene at Roland Garros by beating Barbora Krejcikova en route to the third round there, and she's coming off another quality first-round win, this time taking care of No. 31 seed Kaia Kanepi 6-4, 6-4. Parry's a former junior world No. 1, and her best junior Grand Slam result was a semifinal run at Wimbledon, suggesting she's comfortable on grass. Her recent success should continue against the 139th-ranked Hontama, who got a free pass into the second round when Clara Tauson retired five games into their first-round match.
Nikoloz Basilashvili (-145) vs. Quentin Halys
Halys defeated slumping countryman Benoit Paire in the first round, but the 25-year-old Frenchman has never been past the second round at a Grand Slam, and that's unlikely to change here. The big-hitting Basilashvili has never made a signature Grand Slam run, but he's usually a tough out, having made the third round or better at every major in his career. Given the 56-spot rankings gap between Basilashvili at No. 26 and Halys at No. 82, the far more accomplished player should be viewed as a comfortable favorite.
Honorable Mention:
Ryan Peniston (-160) vs. Steve Johnson
