This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Canadian Open begins Monday with first-round action. While the ATP Masters 1000 in Montreal and WTA 1000 in Toronto will feature the top healthy contenders in the men's and women's games, respectively, the best of the best won't have to play until the second round, as the top eight seeds in both draws have byes. Monday's matchups include a high-profile underdog and a slumping fan favorite on the men's side, as well as a clash between American Grand Slam champions on the women's side. All match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
All the matches at this high-profile hard court event will be best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Andy Murray (+195) vs. Taylor Fritz
Fritz is coming off a disappointing loss to Murray's British countryman Daniel Evans at the Citi Open, in which the American let multiple opportunities to close out the match slip away in the second set before being overwhelmed by the heat and retiring at 4-1 down in the third. While Murray's no longer the player he was in his prime, he still knows how to move his opponent around the court and will make sure to challenge Fritz physically in what will be their first career meeting. If Fritz is still feeling the aftereffects of the loss to Evans, be it physically or mentally, Murray has the skill and experience necessary to capitalize and pull off the upset.
Honorable Mention:
Francisco Cerundolo (+205) vs. Karen Khachanov
Lock It In
Sloane Stephens (-175) vs. Sofia Kenin
Neither of these former Grand Slam champions have played their best tennis lately, but Kenin has been a whole different level of bad from Stephens. While Stephens comes in on a four-match losing streak, she has at least shown flashes of the form that helped her win the 2017 US Open in 2022, capturing her seventh career title in Guadalajara and making it to the quarterfinals of the French Open. Kenin, on the other hand, has been a shell of her former self all year, and she recently returned from a lengthy absence due to an ankle injury. The 2020 Australian Open champion won her first two matches of 2022 in Adelaide but has dropped all seven of her matches since, while winning just one set over that stretch. Until Kenin shows that she can at least be competitive, it's safe to keep betting against her.
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-450) vs. Martina Trevisan
Haddad Maia's having a breakout season, having climbed to a career-high 25th in the rankings and taken home the first two titles of her career en route to a 36-14 overall record. Meanwhile, Trevisan has struggled outside of a semifinal run at the French Open. The 5-foot-3 Italian's a tough out on the slow clay, but Trevisan's lack of offensive ability tends to sink her against quality competition on faster surfaces, as she's 0-4 against players ranked in the top 120 on hard and grass courts this season and has multiple losses to players ranked outside that range as well.
Honorable Mention:
Yulia Putintseva (-600) vs. Katherine Sebov
Value Bet
Alex de Minaur (-145) vs. Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov has gone into a tailspin recently, with a putrid 1-8 record in his last nine matches. The 23-year-old Canadian has fond memories at this tournament, bursting onto the scene with a semifinal run in 2017, but Shapovalov's recent form suggests he'll be fighting an uphill battle against a tough opponent in de Minaur. The Australian won a hard-court title in Atlanta in July to move to No. 21 in the rankings, one spot ahead of Shapovalov. De Minaur also leads their career head-to-head 2-0, with both meetings coming on hard courts, so he should be viewed as the clear favorite here, even with the crowd against him.
Diego Schwartzman (-105) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
It's surprising that Davidovich Fokina is the slight favorite in this match considering Schwartzman has a 20-spot edge in the rankings and a 3-0 advantage in their head to head, all on hard courts. Davidovich Fokina has picked up numerous quality victories in 2022, knocking off Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz in Monte Carlo and Hubert Hurkacz at Wimbledon, but this should still be viewed as Schwartzman's match to lose. The 12th-seeded Argentine is just 4-4 on hard courts in 2022, but that's still markedly better than Davidovich Fokina's 4-8 record on what looks to be the Spaniard's least favorite surface.
Honorable Mention:
Mackenzie McDonald (-145) vs. Alex Molcan
