The World Cup is the biggest sports betting event in the world and the countdown is on for North America in 2026.
The United States, Canada and Mexico will co-host the men's soccer tournament, which has expanded to 48 teams for the first time, from June 11 to July 19.
At RotoWire.com, we asked AI tool Gemini to produce 100 simulations of the World Cup to see how often each team would win the tournament, make the knockout stages and so on. Here are the results in an interactive graphic:
These projections are exclusive to RotoWire.com, where we'll provide more soccer betting insight as the world's most popular sporting event draws closer.
Which Teams Top World Cup Simulations
After 100 AI simulations, the usual favorites rise most often. However, there are some interesting permutations for the 2026 World Cup.
France, the new No. 1 in FIFA world rankings this week, captures the tournament most often in our projections, 20% of the time. Defending World Cup champion Argentina was second at 18% and reigning European champion Spain came in third at 14%, followed by England at 12%.
Those projections share some similarities with current tournament odds at bet365 Sportsbook as of April 2, two days after the last of the team in the 48-team field were decided in elimination qualifiers. But with that operator, the favorites are in a different order. Spain is atop the board at +450 odds, followed by England (+550), France (+600) then Argentina and eternal rival Brazil at +800.
Projections have Argentina reaching the Round of 32 most frequently (90%) and Spain losing the final 16 times, the most of any nation.
Can The USA Win The World Cup?
Most analysts will say that the United States brings its most talented team ever to a World Cup, and certainly the squad that has the most players with top-level experience in Europe's toughest domestic leagues.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the USMNT has +6500 odds to win the World Cup. That's a fair price considering that the Americans have never gone beyond the semifinals (and that run was in the inaugural 1930 event).
The simulations did give a glimmer of hope – not even the "one in a million" type but one out of 100.
The path that the Americans took to win the trophy once went like this: First place in Group D with seven points, including victories over Paraguay and Australia, then a draw against Türkiye. In the knockout rounds, that one perfect simulation had the USA defeating Iran 3-1, Belgium 1-0 in extra time, Portugal in penalties after a 2-2 tie, France 2-1 and finally Argentina 1-0 in the final.
The far more frequent simulated result was that the Americans were eliminated in the Round of 16 or the quarterfinals, which has been typical over the past 30 years. Our projections peg Iran as the most frequent Round of 32 opponent for the USA, which would be a matchup resonating far beyond the playing field.
Sports betting apps have props galore for the World Cup and will offer more before and during the tournament.
Are Any Underdogs Worth Watching?
In 100 projected tournaments, Uzbekistan frequently finished in front of higher-ranked Democratic Republic of the Congo in Group K, advancing to the knockout stages 41% of the time.
Also, Egypt (Group G) reached the Round of 16 in 22% of simulations despite a tough draw with Belgium and a possible Round of 32 matchup with Türkiye or the USA.
The best eight third-place teams go to the knockout stages as the World Cup includes a Round of 32 for the first time. Algeria is our "bubble team" projected for the last spot in the knockout phase, advancing at the expense of fellow third-place teams Scotland, Saudi Arabia, Ghana and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
The longest shot on the board at Caesars Sportsbook to advance out of the group stages is tournament debutant Curacao. The CONCACAF minnows have +800 odds to reach the Round of 32.
Odds of a First-Time World Cup Winner
Only eight nations have won the World Cup. And one of those, Italy, failed to qualify for the third time in a row.
Those seven previous champions who will be in North America this summer dominate our projections, but some first-time winners emerged. Assuming Cristiano Ronaldo, at age 41, is healthy enough to play in his record sixth World Cup, we give him and Portugal a 9% of winning their first title. FanDuel Sportsbook gives Portugal +1100 odds to give Ronaldo the best possible farewell to his international career.
Perennial bridesmaids the Netherlands are next at 6% as the Dutch, three-time World Cup runnersup, seek to shake their label as best nation never to win the big trophy.
Belgium has a 5% chance in our projections, Morocco (3%) seeks to become the first African team to win the World Cup and Croatia, the USA and co-host Mexico won once each out of 100 tries.
At Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, you can wager on -300 odds for there not to be a first-time World Cup winner, against +200 odds that there will be.
