Turkiye vs USA Preview: Predicted Lineups, Team News & Tactical Analysis | 2026 World Cup Group D

The stakes here are lopsided. The USA have been the story of Group D, winning both games and all but locking up top spot, so this is about momentum and seeding more than survival. Turkiye, on the other hand, are the big disappointment of the group, out after losing to Australia and Paraguay, and now playing only for pride in front of what will feel like a USA home crowd at SoFi Stadium.

Turkiye are the real talking point here. How does a side with Arda Guler, Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz lose to Australia and Paraguay and go home after two games? A dead rubber is exactly the kind of game where all that talent finally clicks with the pressure off. The USA are deservedly favored, but Turkiye making this awkward would not be a surprise.

This preview covers predicted lineups, injury news, head-to-head history, the tactical matchup and a score prediction for Thursday's Group D finale in Los Angeles.

When & Where to Watch (USA)

Thursday, June 25 at 10:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. PT

Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California

US Coverage (English):

• TV: FOX
• Streaming: Tubi (free), FOX Sports app

US Coverage (Spanish):

• TV: Telemundo / Universo
• Streaming: Peacock

Turkiye vs USA Lineups & Injury News

Predicted Lineups & Starting XIs

The predicted starting XIs are listed below and update automatically in the widget above as confirmed lineups drop. Lineups via RotoWire.

Predicted lineups: Turkiye are projected in a 4-2-3-1 under coach Vincenzo Montella, with Deniz Gul up top and Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz and Baris Yilmaz behind him, Hakan Calhanoglu and Orkun Kokcu screening the defense. The USA set up in a 4-2-3-1 under manager Mauricio Pochettino, with Haji Wright leading the line and Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie and Sergino Dest in support. Turkiye have only Yunus Akgun as doubtful due to a minor injury, while the USA list Christian Pulisic (calf) and Cristian Roldan (strain) as questionable, with the captain not in the projected XI.

Turkiye predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Ugurcan Cakir (GK); Mert Muldur, Merih Demiral, Abdulkerim Bardakci, Ferdi Kadioglu (DEF); Hakan Calhanoglu, Orkun Kokcu (DM); Baris Yilmaz, Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz (AM); Deniz Gul (FW).

USA predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Matt Freese (GK); Alex Freeman, Mark McKenzie, Miles Robinson, Auston Trusty (DEF); Sebastian Berhalter, Malik Tillman (DM); Sergino Dest, Weston McKennie, Giovanni Reyna (AM); Haji Wright (FW).

Turkiye Lineup Notes

Turkiye have only Yunus Akgun as doubtful on the World Cup injury table but wasn't expected to start this game. Coach Vincenzo Montella will still have plenty of choice to end the competition with a positive result and still has the quality and creativity, with Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz either side of Baris Yilmaz behind Deniz Gul. Check RotoWire's player news for the confirmed lineup.

The talent was never the problem for Turkiye, the results were. Two defeats from two and a tournament already over is a serious underachievement for this group of players, and a free hit against the USA is a chance to at least leave with some dignity and show what should have been.

USA Lineup Notes

The USA list Christian Pulisic (calf) and Cristian Roldan (strain) as questionable on the World Cup injury table, and both are not in the projected XI. Manager Mauricio Pochettino still names a strong group, with Weston McKennie, Giovanni Reyna and Sergino Dest behind Haji Wright and Malick Tillman anchoring midfield. Check RotoWire's player news for the confirmed lineup.

The USA have been excellent, scoring six and conceding once across wins over Paraguay and Australia, and with top spot in hand they can play with freedom. Pulisic sitting out is worth monitoring, but the depth on show, with Reyna and McKennie pulling the strings, means this is still a dangerous attacking side.

Turkiye vs USA Head-to-Head Record

The teams have met three times, splitting two wins each with one draw and an even aggregate, so there is no clear edge in the history. The meetings have been competitive, which fits a game where Turkiye's quality and the USA's form make this closer than the group table might suggest.

Tactical Analysis & Formations

Turkiye finally have license to attack, and coach Montella will lean on Guler and Yildiz to create through the middle with Calhanoglu spraying it from deep. The talent to carve anyone open is there, the question all tournament has been whether they defend well enough to back it up. Against a USA side that breaks quickly, the same vulnerability could show.

The USA will press and play on the front foot at home, using the energy of McKennie and the dribbling of Reyna and Dest to get at Turkiye in transition. Manager Pochettino's team has been clinical, and with the crowd behind them they will fancy finishing the group with a flourish. The space Turkiye leave when they commit forward is exactly where the USA thrive.

The USA get the edge, but lightly. They are the better-run team right now, they are effectively at home, and they have momentum. But Turkiye have the individual quality to win any game when it clicks, and with nothing to lose they may finally show it. The USA should edge it, while Turkiye remain capable of spoiling the party.

Turkiye vs USA Odds

The USA are favorites with home advantage and form on their side, while Turkiye are priced as live underdogs whose talent keeps them dangerous. The market is closer than Turkiye's results suggest, and the over is in play given both teams can score.

Odds as of June 23 and likely to move. Shop the best lines at RotoWire's soccer betting odds page and claim bonuses using the best sportsbook promos.

Key Matchups

Arda Guler vs USA's Double Pivot

Turkiye's game runs through whether Arda Guler can find space between the lines to dictate. Sebastian Berhalter and Malik Tillman will try to deny him time, but if Guler gets on the ball in those pockets, his passing can unlock the USA, and how that battle goes will shape whether Turkiye's talent finally translates into a performance.

Giovanni Reyna vs Turkiye's Defense

With Pulisic likely out, the creative spark for the USA falls to Giovanni Reyna. Against a Turkiye back line that has looked shaky, his ability to combine in tight areas and pick a final pass is the USA's clearest route to goal, and a strong night from him would underline the depth manager Pochettino has to call on.

Set-Piece Takers

For a full breakdown of corner, free kick and penalty takers for all 48 teams, see RotoWire's 2026 World Cup Set-Piece Takers guide.

Turkiye

• Corners & free kicks: Hakan Calhanoglu (8), Arda Guler (10), Orkun Kokcu (1), Irfan Can Kahveci, Can Uzun, Zeki Celik (1)
• Penalties: Hakan Calhanoglu, Kerem Akturkoglu

USA

• Corners & free kicks: Christian Pulisic, Malik Tillman (7), Sebastian Berhalter (1), Giovanni Reyna, Antonee Robinson (2), Alejandro Zendejas
• Penalties: Folarin Balogun (if Christian Pulisic out)

Turkiye vs USA Prediction

The USA are the in-form team, effectively at home, and have looked the part all group, so they are the rightful favorites. But Turkiye have the talent to make any dead rubber dangerous, and with the handbrake off they could finally play to their level. The USA should have enough, though Turkiye grabbing a goal or more in a lively one would not be a shock.

Score Prediction: Turkiye 1-2 USA

Upcoming Fixtures

Group D concludes after this match. The USA have qualified and are chasing top spot, Turkiye are eliminated.

For the full Group D tactical breakdown and odds, see RotoWire's 2026 World Cup group previews.

For more coverage, visit RotoWire's World Cup hub for predicted lineups, fantasy rankings, set pieces, betting picks, odds and daily recaps throughout the tournament.