This article is part of our Starting Eleven series.
MATCHES (EDT)
9:00 a.m: Chelsea v. Watford
9:00 a.m: Huddersfield v. Manchester United
11:30 a.m: Arsenal v. Brighton
FORWARDS
With three decent favorites, there should be a good variety in Sunday's rosters. Top forward is still a toss up because none of these teams are playing well. Arsenal are trying to claw out of a hole after losing their last three, and face a Brighton team who have allowed just two goals in their last three matches. The good news is that Brighton no longer have to play for draws so they could open things up, which should help Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. At the least, the Gunners are a much better home team, so they should perform better than recent losses at Wolverhampton and Leicester.
Gonzalo Higuain may be the best choice since he's at least consistently getting opportunities with eight shots (four on target) in his last two starts. He's averaging 3.97 shots per 90 minutes and could be near that number against Watford, who have given up 11 goals in their last four away matches. He's somewhat easier to trust than the Manchester United guys even though they play Huddersfield. Romelu Lukaku hasn't done anything, with two shots in his last four starts, and it doesn't help that Marcus Rashford left last match with a shoulder injury. I'm not willing to bet on Alexis Sanchez if he takes Rashford's spot.
Troy Deeney should return to the squad for Watford, but similar to Glenn Murray and Karlan Grant, he shouldn't be trusted. Arsenal, Chelsea and Man United are all in a funk, but they're still playing for something and I wouldn't bet on their opponents.
MIDFIELDERS
Midfield is a little easier to trust, with Eden Hazard at the top of the list. His floor should hit around 15 fantasy points, and it doesn't hurt that he scored a brace in the previous meeting. He's had at least 13 points in his last six starts and Watford won't stop that from happening again. There isn't much upside outside of him, but guys like Granit Xhaka and Paul Pogba should have similar floors. Xhaka had a down performance last match but still managed 9.20 fantasy points, and usually when Arsenal are favored at home, he surpasses 15 points via corners and completed passes. Pogba has a lower floor around 12 points, but this is also a good spot for him to end the season on a high note. Huddersfield have allowed multiple goals in their last seven matches, and while Pogba hasn't made the scoresheet in his last four, he has seven shots and nine chances created in that period.
Mesut Ozil doesn't have much of a floor, but he's a sneaky option to make the scoresheet, while N'Golo Kante is the opposite in that he has a floor just above 10 points with little upside. Unlike forward, you can take a swing at some of the underdogs, with Etienne Capoue and Will Hughes having decent floors. Capoue already surpassed 13 fantasy points in recent matches against the two Manchester clubs. There aren't many more worth considering, though Juninho Bacuna had 10 fantasy points at Liverpool last match and could easily surpass that total against Man United. He's had a decent floor in central midfield with higher passing and defensive numbers.
DEFENDERS AND GOALKEEPERS
The best bet for defense is to focus on Chelsea because their defenders control more possession than others on the slate. Marcos Alonso provides upside if he starts again, with Cesar Azpilicueta slightly behind him. David Luiz's floor hasn't been as safe in recent starts, but in a favorable match, he could reach the 16 points he had against Burnley two starts ago. Sokratis Papastathopoulos has the highest floor of the Arsenal defenders, and it should hit double digits with plenty of possession expected against Brighton. Even against Huddersfield, Man United's defensive usage is uncertain since they don't control much possession from the back. Ashley Young at least has some upside on the wing, but the others have floors below 10 points.
Bernd Leno has good odds for a clean sheet, and while he made nine saves last match, there's a chance he isn't forced to make any against Brighton. David de Gea and Kepa Arrizabalaga are in a similar situation, with Kepa having lower odds to secure a clean sheet. Huddersfield have scored only 20 goals this season, while Kepa should get more save opportunities against Watford with a clean sheet possible at Stamford Bridge. If you want to bank on saves alone, Mathew Ryan is the guy, though hoping for a clean sheet at the Emirates is a stretch no matter how much the Gunners are struggling.
