Paraguay vs Australia Preview: Predicted Lineups, Team News & Tactical Analysis | 2026 World Cup Group D
This is a straight shootout for second place. Paraguay and Australia both sit on three points behind the runaway USA, and with the Americans all but certain of top spot, the winner at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara takes the other qualifying place. A draw keeps both alive on four points and leaning on the best third-placed math, so neither side can afford to be timid.
This one is genuinely hard to call. Australia have never lost to Paraguay and have edged this kind of grind-it-out game before, but Paraguay have more in the final third with Julio Enciso and Antonio Sanabria, even without the suspended Miguel Almiron. Two cautious teams with everything on the line often produces a tight, nervy night.
This preview covers predicted lineups, injury news, head-to-head history, the tactical matchup and a score prediction for Thursday's Group D finale in the Bay Area.
When & Where to Watch (USA)
Thursday, June 25 at 10:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. PT
Venue: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
US Coverage (English):
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: Fubo, FOX Sports app
US Coverage (Spanish):
- TV: Telemundo / Universo
- Streaming: Peacock
Paraguay vs Australia Lineups & Injury News
Predicted Lineups & Starting XIs
AustraliaAUS
ParaguayPARAustraliaPredictedParaguayPredictedThe predicted starting XIs are listed below and update automatically in the widget above as confirmed lineups drop. Lineups via RotoWire.
Predicted lineups: Paraguay are projected in a 4-4-2 under coach Gustavo Alfaro, with Gabriel Avalos and Julio Enciso up top and Diego Gomez and Mauricio Magalhaes Prado wide in midfield. Australia set up in a 5-4-1 under manager Tony Popovic, packing the back line with Mohamed Toure as the lone striker and Nestory Irankunda the outlet on the left. Paraguay are without the suspended Miguel Almiron and list Ramon Sosa and Gustavo Caballero as doubtful, none of whom is in the projected XI. Australia's Mathew Leckie and Jacob Italiano are also out for this game due to injuries.
Paraguay predicted starting XI (4-4-2): Orlando Gill (GK); Junior Alonso, Omar Alderete, Gustavo Gomez, Juan Jose Caceres (DEF); Mauricio Magalhaes Prado, Matias Galarza, Andres Cubas, Diego Gomez (MID); Gabriel Avalos, Julio Enciso (FW).
Australia predicted starting XI (5-4-1): Patrick Beach (GK); Jordan Bos, Cameron Burgess, Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar, Jason Geria (DEF); Nestory Irankunda, Aiden O'Neill, Paul Okon, Conor Metcalfe (MID); Mohamed Toure (FW).
Paraguay Lineup Notes
Paraguay are without the suspended Miguel Almiron, a real loss to their creativity and both Ramon Sosa and Gustavo Caballero are doubtful on the World Cup injury table, although the second resumed full team training, none is in the projected XI. Coach Gustavo Alfaro leans on the experienced Gustavo Gomez at the back and pairs Gabriel Avalos with Julio Enciso, who carries most of the creative burden now. Check RotoWire's player news for the confirmed lineup.
Losing Almiron matters, because he is the man who unlocks defenses, and it puts more on Enciso to make something happen. Paraguay are well organized and got a clean win over Turkiye, but the goals have not flowed, and that could be the issue against a deep Australian block.
Australia Lineup Notes
Mathew Leckie and Jacob Italiano are ruled out for Australia on the World Cup injury table. Manager Tony Popovic sets up cautiously with a back five, asking Nestory Irankunda to provide the spark in transition and Mohamed Toure to lead the line on his own. Check RotoWire's player news for the confirmed lineup.
Australia have been hard to beat, with a clean sheet against Turkiye before USA broke them down, and manager Popovic will be content to make this a low-event game. With a draw keeping them alive, do not expect them to over-extend, but the win is what guarantees second.
Paraguay vs Australia Head-to-Head Record
These teams will meet for the sixth time and the first at a major tournament. Australia hold the edge with two wins and three draws, and Paraguay have never beaten them. The history points to tight, cagey affairs, which is exactly what this stakes-laden finale could turn into.
Tactical Analysis & Formations
Paraguay will look to control the ball and use the width of Diego Gomez and Matias Galarza to get crosses in for Avalos, while Enciso drops to find pockets between the lines. Without Almiron, the creative load falls on Enciso, and Paraguay may find it harder than usual to break down a packed defense, so set pieces and Gustavo Gomez's threat from them could be important.
Australia will sit in their back five, stay compact and look to spring Irankunda and Toure on the counter. Manager Popovic's side is well drilled and content to make this ugly, frustrating Paraguay and waiting for a set piece or a transition moment of their own. Whoever blinks first in a tight game likely decides who goes through.
A draw is the most likely outcome, with a slight nod to Paraguay if anyone wins it. Both teams are cautious, both have plenty to lose, and Australia's record in this fixture says it stays close. Paraguay's edge in attacking talent gives them the better chance to find a winner, but this finishing level and sending both to sweat on the third-place standings would not be a surprise.
Paraguay vs Australia Odds
The market sees this as close, with Paraguay marginal favorites at home in the table sense and Australia priced as live underdogs who can advance with a draw. Given two cautious teams and high stakes, the under and a tight result are the angles to watch.
| Sportsbook | Paraguay | Draw | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +185 | +115 | +300 |
| DraftKings | +185 | +125 | +300 |
| FanDuel | +200 | +120 | +270 |
| bet365 | +190 | +125 | +280 |
| Kalshi | +173 | +124 | +279 |
Odds as of June 25 and likely to move. Shop the best lines at RotoWire's soccer betting odds page and claim bonuses using the best sportsbook promos.
Key Matchups
Julio Enciso vs Australia's Back Five
With Almiron suspended, Paraguay's creativity runs almost entirely through Julio Enciso. Against a deep Australian block, his ability to find a half-yard and produce a moment of quality, a through ball or a shot from range, is Paraguay's clearest route to the goal they likely need. If Australia shut him down, Paraguay may struggle to break through.
Nestory Irankunda vs Paraguay's Full-Backs
Australia's main threat is springing Nestory Irankunda into space on the counter. When Paraguay commit their full-backs forward to chase the game, the room behind is where Irankunda's pace and directness can hurt them, and he is the most likely source of an Australian goal on the break.
Set-Piece Takers
For a full breakdown of corner, free kick and penalty takers for all 48 teams, see RotoWire's 2026 World Cup Set-Piece Takers guide.
Paraguay
- Corners & free kicks: Diego Gomez, Julio Enciso (1), Mauricio, Ramon Sosa (with Miguel Almiron suspended)
- Penalties: Julio Enciso, Diego Gomez (Miguel Almiron is suspended)
Australia
- Corners & free kicks: Nestory Irankunda, Ajdin Hrustic, Conor Metcalfe (3), Awer Mabil, Aiden O'Neill (3), Cristian Volpato (2), Paul Okon (1)
- Penalties: Ajdin Hrustic, Nestory Irankunda
Paraguay vs Australia Prediction
Two careful teams with everything on the line usually means a tight, tense game, and Australia's unbeaten record in this fixture backs that up. Paraguay have a little more in attack even without Almiron, so a Paraguay edge is the lean if anyone wins it, but this finishing level with both teams holding their breath for the third-place standings is equally plausible. A draw is the call.
Score Prediction: Paraguay 1-1 Australia
Upcoming Fixtures
Group D concludes after this match. The winner takes second behind the USA, a draw leaves both Paraguay and Australia hoping to advance among the best third-placed teams.
For the full Group D tactical breakdown and odds, see RotoWire's 2026 World Cup group previews.
For more coverage, visit RotoWire's World Cup hub for predicted lineups, fantasy rankings, set pieces, betting picks, odds and daily recaps throughout the tournament.
