Japan vs Sweden Preview: Predicted Lineups, Team News & Tactical Analysis | 2026 World Cup Group F
This is the Group F decider, and it is a good one. Japan sit on four points and need only a draw to go through, while Sweden, a point back on three, have to win to leapfrog them. When a team with the Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres strike pair has to chase a result, you pay attention, and that is exactly the situation Sweden are in at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Japan are the favored side here, but not by as much as the bookies might suggest. Japan have been excellent, drawing the Netherlands and battering Tunisia, and a draw does the job. The worry is that playing for a point against two strikers this good is a dangerous game, and Sweden will throw everything forward. This has goals written all over it.
This preview covers predicted lineups, injury news, head-to-head history, the tactical matchup and a score prediction for Thursday's Group F finale in Texas.
When & Where to Watch (USA)
Thursday, June 25 at 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
US Coverage (English):
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: Fubo, FOX Sports app
US Coverage (Spanish):
- TV: Telemundo / Universo
- Streaming: Peacock
Japan vs Sweden Lineups & Injury News
Predicted Lineups & Starting XIs
The predicted starting XIs are listed below and update automatically in the widget above as confirmed lineups drop. Lineups via RotoWire.
Predicted lineups: Japan are projected in a 3-4-2-1 under coach Hajime Moriyasu, with Ayase Ueda up top, Junya Ito and Daichi Kamada in the pockets and Ritsu Doan and Keito Nakamura as wing-backs. Sweden set up in a 3-5-2 under manager Graham Potter, with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres up top and Benjamin Nygren pulling the strings behind them. Japan are without Takefusa Kubo, who is out, and list Shuto Machino as questionable, with neither in the projected XI. Sweden's Eric Smith is doubtful and also out of the XI.
Japan predicted starting XI (3-4-2-1): Zion Suzuki (GK); Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ko Itakura (DEF); Ritsu Doan, Ao Tanaka, Kaishu Sano, Keito Nakamura (MID); Junya Ito, Daichi Kamada (AM); Ayase Ueda (FW).
Sweden predicted starting XI (3-5-2): Kristoffer Nordfeldt (GK); Isak Hien, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Victor Lindelof (DEF); Alexander Bernhardsson, Yasin Ayari, Jesper Karlstrom, Benjamin Nygren, Gabriel Gudmundsson (MID); Viktor Gyokeres, Alexander Isak (FW).
Japan Lineup Notes
Japan are without Takefusa Kubo, who is ruled out on the World Cup injury table, and Shuto Machino is listed as questionable, neither is in the projected XI. Coach Hajime Moriyasu still has a strong hand, with Junya Ito and Daichi Kamada supporting Ayase Ueda and Ritsu Doan flying forward from wing-back. Check RotoWire's player news for the confirmed lineup.
Losing Kubo is a blow to Japan's creativity, but they are deep and well-drilled, and the 4-0 win over Tunisia showed how dangerous they are in transition. A draw sends them through, but coach Moriyasu is unlikely to simply sit, because this team is at its best on the front foot.
Sweden Lineup Notes
Eric Smith is listed as questionable for Sweden on the World Cup injury table and is not in the projected XI. Manager Graham Potter leans on the obvious strength, pairing Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres up top with Benjamin Nygren feeding them and a back three trying to hold the fort. Check RotoWire's player news for the confirmed lineup.
Sweden's 5-1 win over Tunisia showed what the strikers can do, but the 5-1 loss to the Netherlands showed how open they can be. They have to win, so they will commit numbers, and that suits a Japan side that thrives on the counter. It could be a shootout.
Japan vs Sweden Head-to-Head Record
The sides have met five times, with Sweden winning twice, Japan once and two draws, and a tight aggregate that reflects how even the meetings have been. There is no World Cup history between them, so this is fresh ground, and the form and the stakes matter more than the record.
Tactical Analysis & Formations
Japan will look to control through their front-foot midfield and use the pace of Doan and Nakamura on the flanks to get in behind. Coach Moriyasu's 3-4-2-1 funnels play to Ito and Kamada between the lines, and Ueda is a willing runner. With a draw enough, Japan can be patient, but their instinct is to press and break quickly, and that is when they are most dangerous.
Sweden have to win, which means manager Potter will commit bodies forward to service Isak and Gyokeres, two strikers good enough to win any game on their own. The risk is the space that leaves, because Japan are lethal on the counter and Sweden's back three was exposed by the Dutch. Expect Sweden to go for it and Japan to punish the gaps.
Japan get the edge, though a draw or a Sweden win would not be a surprise given those two strikers. Japan are the better-balanced team, they only need a point, and they have the pace to hurt a Sweden side that must chase. Japan doing just enough is the lean, with goals expected at both ends.
Japan vs Sweden Odds
Japan are slight favorites with a draw enough to advance, and Sweden are priced as live underdogs who have to win. Given Sweden's firepower and Japan's counter-attacking threat, the over and both teams to score are the angles the market will lean on.
| Sportsbook | Japan | Draw | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | +240 | +290 |
| DraftKings | -105 | +245 | +330 |
| FanDuel | -115 | +250 | +340 |
| bet365 | -112 | +240 | +333 |
| Kalshi | -116 | +239 | +330 |
Odds as of June 23 and likely to move. Shop the best lines at RotoWire's soccer betting odds page and claim bonuses using the best sportsbook promos.
Key Matchups
Alexander Isak & Viktor Gyokeres vs Japan's Back Three
Everything for Sweden runs through their strike pair. Isak's movement and Gyokeres's power are a handful for any defense, and Japan's back three of Ito, Tomiyasu and Itakura will have to be perfect for ninety minutes. If Sweden get quality service in, this is where the game could turn.
Ritsu Doan vs Sweden's Left Side
With Sweden forced to push forward, the space behind their wing-backs is where Ritsu Doan can do damage in transition. His ability to drive at a stretched defense and combine with Ueda is Japan's most reliable counter-attacking weapon, and exploiting that channel could be how they land the decisive blow.
Set-Piece Takers
For a full breakdown of corner, free kick and penalty takers for all 48 teams, see RotoWire's 2026 World Cup Set-Piece Takers guide.
Japan
- Corners & free kicks: Takefusa Kubo, Daichi Kamada (1), Junya Ito (8), Kaishu Sano, Yukinari Sugawara, Yuito Suzuki
- Penalties: Ayase Ueda, Ritsu Doan, Junya Ito
Sweden
- Corners & free kicks: Benjamin Nygren (3), Yasin Ayari (4), Anthony Elanga (1), Elliot Stroud (1)
- Penalties: Viktor Gyokeres, Alexander Isak
Japan vs Sweden Prediction
Sweden have to win and they have the strikers to do it, so they will throw everything forward, and that is exactly the open game Japan want. Both teams scoring is the expectation, but Japan's balance and their threat on the break should be enough to get the result they need. Sweden may land a blow, but Japan should edge a lively one.
Score Prediction: Japan 2-1 Sweden
Upcoming Fixtures
Group F concludes after this match. Japan advance with a draw or better, Sweden must win to go through.
For the full Group F tactical breakdown and odds, see RotoWire's 2026 World Cup group previews.
For more coverage, visit RotoWire's World Cup hub for predicted lineups, fantasy rankings, set pieces, betting picks, odds and daily recaps throughout the tournament.
