This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EDT)
- 11:00 am: Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton
- 11:00 am: Aston Villa vs. Liverpool
- 11:00 am: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Norwich City
- 11:00 am: Manchester City vs. Southampton
- 11:00 am: Sheffield United vs. Burnley
- 11:00 am: West Ham United vs. Newcastle United
- 1:30 pm: Watford vs. Chelsea
For detailed stats and odds, check out the FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Cheat Sheet.
FORWARDS/MIDFIELDERS
This slate is all about Manchester City. If you fade them in cash games, do so at your own peril. Even if you avoid them in GPPs, you're at risk of them scoring five goals. City beat Southampton 3-1 with a few backups in midweek Cup play and last week, Leicester won 9-0 at Southampton (a red card surely played a part). Sure, there's always the chance City win 1-0, but you'd be playing with fire. Sergio Aguero ($23) has the best odds to score on the slate with most of his teammates close behind. There's no telling what Raheem Sterling ($24) will do in a given match, and I'm not sure he's worth the extra dollar, especially since Kevin De Bruyne ($22) has the best floor on the slate. You could ideally put Bernardo Silva ($19), Riyad Mahrez ($18) and David Silva ($17) in a stack if all of them make the starting XI. Ilkay Gundogan ($13) is a viable punt since he's getting opportunities whenever City dominate, creating seven chances in his last three starts.
The other play is Liverpool, though their implied goal total is half a goal lower than City's. There are also questions about Mohamed Salah's ($20) ankle, as well as Sadio Mane ($19), who hasn't made the score-sheet in four of his last five starts and doesn't have a floor much higher than 10 points. It's rarely a good idea to bet against the Reds, but I'd rather spend the extra few on City in a better spot. If you believe in Liverpool, I think Salah is the better option because if it's a close match, you know that late penalty is coming.
I'm betting on Chelsea instead of Arsenal because Arsenal's production is random and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($20) has no floor. If anything, I think Nicolas Pepe ($17) is the move because he gets back defensively to help his floor, and he's been taking corners. I think Chelsea should be bigger favorites because they're playing well (despite the midweek loss) and Watford are still bad. I'm focusing on the players who didn't start Wednesday's match: Tammy Abraham ($20), Mason Mount ($18) and Willian ($17). While Christian Pulisic ($16) will get attention, he got a price bump and isn't scoring a hat trick every match. Willian is the cheapest of the trio and has been most consistent with three goals and two assists in his last six starts in all competitions, and he wasn't in the squad for the Cup match.
Elsewhere, I'm avoiding West Ham v. Newcastle in cash games because both like to play defensively, though throwing money at Sebastien Haller ($18) and Andriy Yarmolenko ($14) isn't a bad idea. When in the right situation, those two have produced, and Newcastle have allowed 12 goals in five away matches.
I'm willing to bank on Leandro Trossard ($13) starting again, and he's a must to get in at least one lineup against the Norwich City back line. If he starts in place of Pascal Gross ($11), a floor of 20 points is possible because of corners. If it's the other way around, Gross is oddly cheaper after blasting in a free kick goal last match. I'm also taking bets on another Neal Maupay ($16) goal. He has scored in each of his last three home starts to go with five shots on goal and six chances created in his last three starts overall.
I'm not sure how the Sheffield United v. Burnley match will play out, but John Fleck ($10) may be the best value play on the slate after taking all set pieces last match. His floor is around 10 fantasy points, but he's going to make the score-sheet at some point, having supplied three shots on goal and 15 chances created. If you prefer an easy 10 points, Marvelous Nakamba ($11) should get plenty of work against Liverpool. In the opposite vein, this is the perfect spot for Adama Traore ($12) to return to the score-sheet because Arsenal are prone to allowing dumb goals, and Traore can punish a team that makes mistakes. If you're looking to spend less, Will Hughes ($10) and Jonjo Shelvey ($10) are set to start, with the latter possibly taking over set pieces.
DEFENDERS
No one in cash games will be dishing out money on defenders, so if that's your strategy, throw everything at Trent Alexander-Arnold ($16) and Christian Kabasele ($14) in GPPs. There's little reason to spend on defenders who sometimes don't have floors of 15 points when you can get a forward who hits 20 points with one goal.
As expected, the $8 defenders are all unreliable, though Kieran Tierney may be the most intriguing. He gets up the field a lot and had 8.2 fantasy points in 75 minutes of his first league start last weekend. Otherwise, Dejan Lovren ($9) has had a floor of 15 points in each of his two starts and is also in play for a clean sheet. Adam Webster ($10) is worth a look and has gotten up the field in good situations, which boosts an already solid floor because he provides a little bit of everything. Normally, a Southampton stack of Jannik Vestergaard ($10) and Maya Yoshida ($10) would be too good to pass up, but I'm not sure that's the case anymore. The Southampton back line has been a mess, and I'm not sure they're worth a selection.
If price doesn't matter, I'd look at Aston Villa and Watford because Liverpool and Chelsea have forced more defensive action than most on this slate. Liverpool have allowed the second-most clearances, third-most blocks and sixth-most interceptions, while Chelsea have forced the fourth-most clearances, third-most interceptions and second-most blocks. Tyrone Mings ($13) and Frederic Guilbert ($12) are a bit pricier, while Craig Cathcart ($9) is the cheapest of the expected starters and has 17 clearances in his last three starts.
GOALKEEPER
If you have the money, Ederson ($15) has the best odds to win and secure a clean sheet, which is a free 17 points if you think that happens. It's a good strategy, but it's not a guarantee because Southampton have been able to find the back of the net in almost every match as long as they don't have someone sent off. You know Dean Henderson ($13) isn't going to allow more than one goal, and that's led to at least six fantasy points in each of his last six starts. If you don't have that kind of money to burn, Tom Heaton ($10) has 14 saves in his last three starts and had 10.5 points in his last start at Man City. If you don't trust Brighton to score, Tim Krul ($9) has yet to finish in the negative this season because of saves. Martin Dubravka ($9) has had some bad performances, but if Newcastle continue their recent play, he won't allow more than one or two goals.
