DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday World Cup Picks

MATCHES (EDT)

10:00 a.m: Sweden v. Mexico
10:00 a.m: Germany v. South Korea
2:00 p.m: Brazil v. Serbia
2:00 p.m: Costa Rica v. Switzerland

FORWARDS

Neymar, BRA v. SRB ($11,900): Brazil have yet to clinch a spot in the knockout round, but a win over Serbia would lock them into the top spot as long as they outscore Switzerland if they beat Costa Rica by a sizable gap. He continues to be very expensive, but Neymar has scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in both games at the World Cup without a goal or an assist...except he did score a goal against Costa Rica, leaving him with 27.75 fantasy points, which means he's actually been over 21.00 in both games. Sure, his price is high, but there is no player on the slate with a higher fantasy floor or ceiling, especially in a must-win game for the Brazilians. Any pivots away from Neymar are strictly ownership plays, and I always prefer Philippe Coutinho ($9,000) over Gabriel Jesus ($8,200) and Willian ($7,400) because of his shooting upside, though Jesus at least plays as the center-forward for the team with the second-highest implied goal total. (I'd put Roberto Firmino ahead of Willian too, if he gets a start.)

Thomas Muller, GER v. SRB ($8,700): We've seen a bit of a bizarro Germany during this tournament, as Muller comes in with 14 crosses and two shots in their first two games while midfielder Toni Kroos ($8,500) has nine crosses and 10 shots. Germany need to win, and by multiple goals, so I'm expecting Muller to be shooting more than we've seen lately. There is also a possibility that Germany start Timo Werner ($8,000) and Mario Gomez ($7,800), which theoretically takes a few shots away from Muller, but it also gives him more opportunities to create chances to those GPP options.

Hwang Hee-Chang, KOR v. GER ($4,300): With a number of high-priced midfielders, it might be worth trying to pay down at forward. Hwang's attacking upside hasn't been that great, but he comes in with seven tackles won and five fouls drawn in the two games, which are nice returns for this price and at this position. Unfortunately, those two stats aren't the more consistent, and Hwang doesn't even have a track record with them for his club team, RB Salzburg. He's a pretty big punt and playing for the biggest underdog on the slate, though you could make the argument that he'll get plenty of opportunities for defensive stats, even as a forward.

MIDFIELDERS

Xherdan Shaqiri, SUI v. CRC ($8,900): I think you could make the argument that Shaqiri is the best midfielder on the slate given his role for Switzerland and their opponent. Kroos would be the only one in the conversation, though if Germany score first (and maybe second) against South Korea then I don't think we see the same Kroos as the first two games. Shaqiri has been incredible, scoring 15.3 and 24.3 fantasy points, respectively, and while they came with an assist in the first game and a late goal in the second, he's now facing the worst team in the group. This range for a midfielder is probably more than I'm going to want to spend, especially with the possibility of getting exposure to the Switzerland attack at a cheaper price (more on that later), but Shaqiri definitely makes for an interesting GPP play with lots of people focusing on Germany and Brazil.

Andres Guardado, MEX v SWE ($4,500): Guardado missed out on a penalty opportunity in Mexico's last game, as they decided to let Carlos Vela ($7,300, midfielder/forward) take one for the first time in his entire national team career (no bitterness here, I promise), but he still finished with a solid 8.75 fantasy points on a $4,400 salary. The matchup Wednesday is definitely tougher than facing South Korea, especially with Sweden also needing a win to possibly advance, but in this price range I think Guardado could easily make value thanks to his ability to take shots, send in crosses, win tackles and draw fouls. Fantasy players could also consider Lee Jae-Sung ($4,400) because he's a similar price, but South Korea are by far the biggest underdogs on the slate, so you're almost fully dependent on defensive peripheral stats.

Sebastian Larsson, SWE v. MEX ($3,500): The matchup against Mexico isn't the easiest, even if they only need a draw to win their group, but Larsson's role on set pieces has to put him in consideration at his low price. He was a total bust against Germany, finishing with 0.75 points thanks to a late yellow card (I am bitter about that one), but his salary Wednesday means he really doesn't have to do too much to make value. Given his role on set pieces, I'd rather take a flier in this range than pay down for $3,500-ish defender and lock out a defender spot.

DEFENDERS

Joshua Kimmich, GER v. KOR ($6,900): Just like Muller, Germany need to score and win, so why not go with their most reliable crosser, who could be sending those balls in to two center-forwards? Kimmich's upside is more from assists than goals because he's not really a big shooter (he is a defender, after all), but his floor is incredibly stable from crosses and fouls drawn; it's also why his price is so high. Choosing Kimmich likely means you're not playing Kroos, and given that I think Germany can win while Kimmich maintains his floor and Kroos doesn't is why I'll take the discount between the two. If you're fairly confident in the clean sheet, and the oddsmakers are, you could pay down for Sebastian Rudy ($3,900)Niklas Sule ($3,600), who is expected to start alongside Antonio Rudiger ($3,700) because Mats Hummels ($4,000) is likely to miss out with a neck injury and Jerome Boateng ($4,000) is suspended.

Ricardo Rodriguez, SUI v. CRC ($5,600): I think paying up at both defender spots, and possibly using a defender in the utility, could be the optimal play on this slate because of the excellent attackers we have available, even after Kimmich. Rodriguez faces off against a Costa Rican side already eliminated from knockout round consideration, while Switzerland need a win to ensure they go through. He's Switzerland's top penalty taker, though more importantly he shares corners with Shaqiri and is an important part of the Swiss attack in terms of providing width and sending in crosses. With a potential clean sheet bonus coming as well, Rodriguez has a solid floor for a defender and decent upside. If you're looking to pay down for a Swiss defender, Manuel Akanji ($3,500) averaged 4.4 fantasy points per game in the first two, and that's without a clean sheet.

Marcelo, BRA v. SRB ($6,600): Yes, I really am recommending the three most expensive defenders. Given the options in midfield, I think it's the optimal construction to try and roster Kimmich, Rodriguez and Marcelo given their attacking prowesses and their teams' needs for wins. It's entirely viable in a lineup that fades Neymar (good luck with that one), but I think it's also doable with the Brazilian star. If you're really looking for some cheaper options, I don't think the Brazilian center-backs are as good as the German ones, but I'd definitely take them over rostering the South Korean or Costa Rican fullbacks/wingbacks.

GOALKEEPER

Keylor Navas, CRC v. SUI ($4,000): Germany's Manuel Neuer ($5,900) is about as close to a sure thing for a win and clean sheet as you can get, but you'll be paying the understandably hefty price for them. It will probably come down to paying for Neuer or a high-priced defender, and given the upside options of the latter on this slate, I just don't see the funds for the Germany keeper. Navas, on the other hand, provides a nice salary savings and faces a Switzerland attack that isn't that strong despite scoring three goals in two games, and Navas showed against Brazil what he's capable of doing, allowing two goals but still making seven saves and drawing two fouls.