DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Values

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Values

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

The matchups for Wednesday's Champions League matches are much different than the ones we saw Tuesday. The opening fixtures of the group stage saw dominant home teams, as Paris Saint-Germain (v. Malmo), Real Madrid (v. Shakhtar Donetsk), Sevilla (v. Borussia Monchengladbach), Wolfsburg (v. CSKA Moscow) and Benfica (v. Astana) were all heavy, or relatively heavy, favorites. As a result, we got some great fantasy value plays, including the defensive options and goalkeepers, as those five clubs won by an aggregate of 12-0.

However, we get a very different situation Wednesday, as we have only three home favorites: Bayer Leverkusen (v. BATE), Chelsea (v. Maccabi Tel Aviv) and Valencia (v. Zenit St. Petersburg). Not exactly the powerhouse group of favorites we enjoyed Tuesday.

Here are the odds from Paddy Power as of 9:45 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Sept. 15:

Home (win odds) (draw odds) Away (win odds)
Bayer Leverkusen (1/4) 5/1 BATE (10/1)
Chelsea (1/5) 6/1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (12/1)
Dinamo Zagreb (11/2) 3/1 Arsenal (8/15)
Dynamo Kiev (9/5) 11/5 FC Porto (8/5)
Gent (5/2) 9/4 Lyon (6/5)
Olympiacos (15/2) 7/2 Bayern Munich (2/5)
Roma (9/2) 11/4 Barcelona (4/6)
Valencia (4/5) 13/5 Zenit St. Petersbugh (7/2)

And this isn't to say that you shouldn't pick players from favorites on the road, it's just to point out that we've got a little more work to do than Tuesday's slate.

Goalkeeper:

DraftKings gifted us a big one, as despite the contests opening Tuesday night, they did not adjust for Thibaut Courtois' knee injury, which will sideline him for months. As a result, instead of having to pay $5,700 for the goalie with the best odds of winning, we only need to shell out $4,000 for backup Asmir Begovic. We've discussed on the RotoWire Fantasy Soccer Podcast that you don't ever choose a goalie because of who he is but because of the situation in front of him. There is likely never a time you would have considered Courtois but you wouldn't take Begovic. Yes, Courtois is a better keeper, but for fantasy purposes their effectively equal.

It should be noted that Chelsea have been awful defensively this season in Premier League play. In fact, their 12 goals allowed are the most in England's top flight. And even despite that, Begovic is the right call as a home goalie with the best odds to win.

As I wrote in Tuesday's article, spending at least 10 percent of your budget on a goalkeeper can severely limit your ability to spend up, particularly in Champions League matches when the best players in the world play (and they are priced accordingly). Finding a keeper under $5,000 can really open up the possibilities.

The other cheap backup play to consider is Valencia's Jaume Domenech ($3,100), who is getting the start in place of Mathew Ryan ($5,200) because of a knee injury. Valencia are favored at home, but no one would be surprised if Hulk got on the score sheet, which is why Begovic is the slightly safer play.

Other options:Yury Lodygin ($4,000), Eduardo ($4,100)

Defenders:

Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho has hinted that he could give a start to Baba Rahman ($2,500), which would provide a huge discount for fantasy owners that want to focus on the biggest favorite of the day. Rahman is an attack-minded leftback, and while Cesar Azpilicueta has been starting there for the last two years, he could move to his natural right side position, which would push Branislav Ivanovic, who is inexplicably the most expensive defender at $6,000, to the bench. Given how Ivanovic has played this season, it's surprising he's even still in the conversation to start.

If we want to pair the other value goalkeeper with value defenders, Jose Gaya ($3,400) and Joao Cancelo ($3,500) both make sense. Both players have 12 crosses in two La Liga matches this season, accordingto WhoScored.com, which can provide a nice floor with decent clean-sheet upside.

Thankfully, we can also get a few cheaper defenders from some of the other favorites, as Bayer Leverkusen's starting leftback Wendell can be had for only $3,500, while Roberto Hilbert, who plays on the other side, costs just $500 more.

If you're looking for cheap options from Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Arsenal, you're out of luck, as you won't find a fullback under $4,500, though if you're truly bargain hunting and only looking for clean sheet points, you may be able to grab Arsenal's Gabriel ($3,000), who has been starting of late for the injured Per Mertesacker, though he is expected to return Wednesday.

Other options:Miguel Layun ($3,000), Henri Bedimo ($4,000)

Midfielders:

Tuesday's slate had a number of expensive midfield options that were worth considering, including Angel Di Maria, David Silva, Gareth Bale and Memphis Depay, but Wednesday's collection of attacking midfielders aren't as dominant.

Yes, Eden Hazard ($10,300) is an excellent player, but he's struggled to start the season and spending that much for a guy who hasn't scored a league goal yet this season is tough to swallow. Mesut Ozil ($8,300) is another solid option, though you're unlikely to get a goal from him, something you need when you pay above $8,000. Making matters worse, Arjen Robben ($9,100) is out with a thigh injury, while Franck Ribery ($9,000) is out with an ankle issue.

However, there is still considerable value to be had out of the Bayern midfield thanks to Douglas Costa ($7,500), who has been lining up front with Robert Lewandowski ($9,800) and Thomas Muller ($9,500). Costa has excellent goal upside, as well as adding peripheral stats, making him a solid value at more than $2,000 less than his attacking counterparts.

Chelsea midfielder Oscar ($7,000) was playing very well before suffering a muscular injury that has kept him out for over a month. The Blues have struggled in his absence, but he's returned to fitness and manager Jose Mourinho intimated that Oscar will feature against Maccabi. If that's the case, he's likely to line up as the No. 10, with Pedro and Hazard on the wings and Diego Costa up front, giving him the keys to an attack that's been relatively stagnant in his absence.

As mentioned before, paying up for Ozil isn't likely to pan out given that he's not a goal scorer, and while Santi Cazorla isn't either, he still finds numerous ways to contribute, including with crosses (11 in his last two games), which makes more sense for $800 less.

And finally, Lyon's Mathieu Valbuena appears significantly underpriced at just $5,000, specifically because he's playing centrally in an attack that can really score, plus he sends in a good number of crosses.

Other options:Aaron Ramsey ($7,100), Karim Bellerabi ($6,500), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($5,600), Alessandro Florenzi ($3,500)

Forwards:

Tuesday was Cristiano Ronaldo, Wednesday is for Lionel Messi ($12,800). Ronaldo certainly had the better matchup of the two (home against Shakhtar Donetsk instead of away to Roma), but Messi still has incredible upside, both in scoring goals and setting them up. Messi is the most expensive player of the slate by $2,200, but his upside is higher than anyone else's.

If you want to get exposure to the Barcelona attack but can't shell out that much for Messi, you're still going to have to pay up for Neymar ($10,500) or Luis Suarez ($10,400). With the number of values available at other positions, Messi should be affordable.

Bayern Munich also boasts an incredibly powerful attacking trio, and while Robert Lewandowski ($9,800) and Thomas Muller ($9,500) are excellent options, Douglas Costa ($7,500) may provide the most bang for the buck (that being said, Lewandowski and Muller have legitimate hat-trick upside).

There are actually a number of value forwards available for fantasy players who want to pay up for goalkeepers and defenders. Lyon's Alexandre Lacazette, who led Ligue 1 in goals last season and was heavily linked to multiple Premier League clubs this summer, can be had for just $6,800, while the Bayer Leverkusen duo of Stefan Kiessling ($6,700) and Hakan Calhanoglu ($6,600), a free-kick specialist, are both attractive options.

FC Porto scored a ton of goals in the Champions League last season, and while they sold a number of players since then, they still have Vincent Aboubakar ($6,500), who already has four goals in four league matches this season.

Rounding out the value plays, Alvaro Negredo ($6,000) and Paco Alcacer ($4,700) could provide solid value, though only one is going to start and it's possible that each plays 45 minutes, which is obviously not ideal for fantasy purposes.

Other options:Alexis Sanchez ($10,600), Diego Costa ($10,000), Hulk ($8,500), Pedro ($7,500)

Editor's note: an earlier version of this article stated Douglas Costa was a forward, when he is, in fact, a midfielder on DraftKings.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Andrew M. Laird plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kingmorland, DraftKings: andrewmlaird, Yahoo: Lairdinho.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew is a former RotoWire contributor. He was the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year. He is a nine-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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