This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
INTRODUCTION
The Premier League is back! We have a fun four-game classic slate to open the season where Arsenal and Newcastle are heavy home favorites against Wolves and Southampton, respectively. Their key players have high salaries, but Brighton and Bournemouth have solid options for salary relief and are in fairly neutral matchups despite playing on the road. Let's dig in!
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton
- 10:00 am: Everton vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- 10:00 am: Newcastle United vs. Southampton
- 10:00 am: Nottingham Forest vs. AFC Bournemouth
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Bukayo Saka (ARS vs. WOL, $11,000): Saka opens the season with a lofty price-tag, but I think he is worth the investment in all formats. He reliably takes right-sided corners and serves as penalty taker. His open play floor per 90 minutes played last season was above 10, which is excellent. He is a favorite to either score or assist.
Anthony Gordon (NEW vs. SOU, $10,400): I was surprised to see that there's enough value at midfield and defender that it's possible to play Saka and Gordon in the same lineup without making too many sacrifices. We don't project Kieran Trippier to start, which puts Gordon on a share of set pieces. Gordon was regularly delivering 10-point floors as a set-piece taker at the end of the 23/24 season, and the matchup at home against newly-promoted Southampton is about as good as it gets. If Trippier does start, I think Gordon is too expensive for cash games.
In GPPs, I'm more likely to stack Arsenal or Newcastle attackers instead of trying to mix and match the best individual options in each match. Both teams are expensive, so solid performances from one side can be overcome by a potential four (or more) goal performance from either side. Alexander Isak ($9,900) is the slate's most likely goalscorer, while Kai Havertz ($9,700) is the most likely Arsenal goalscorer per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Joao Pedro (EVE vs. BHA, $8,500): I think Pedro is a good pivot from Gordon if you don't wish to spend up twice at the forward position. His open play floor was just under 10 points per 90 minutes played last season, and he should continue to take Brighton's penalties. While things can change under a new manager, he reliably played 90 minute shifts.
Depending on Everton's formation, Dwight McNeil ($8,200) is a playable, though likely very contrarian, option. The case for McNeil is that if Garner doesn't start, McNeil is live for a monopoly of set pieces. Brighton are tough opposition, but the elite role might make it worth a shot in tournaments. I'm interested in Simon Adingra ($5,800) if he starts as a shot at a cheap goal. Justin Kluivert ($5,500) took a penalty in preseason after Dominic Solanke departed for Spurs. While it's worth pointing out that Will Smallbone ($4,500) might be on a set piece monopoly and is somehow forward eligible, he is a fringe play at best in a brutal matchup away to Newcastle.
MIDFIELDERS
If you play a cheaper forward in cash games, I think the primary appeal is that you can afford a set piece taker such as Martin Odegaard ($8,800), Declan Rice ($7,300), or potentially Jacob Murphy ($8,000). This is not my current preferred approach but I think it's reasonable, and all three are worth playing in GPPs. Arsenal can be a bit flexible with set pieces, but I expect Odegaard to take a free kick or two around the box, and I expect Rice to take left-side corners. Murphy took some corners but appeared to be usurped by other Newcastle options like Gordon, Lewis Hall, and Kieran Trippier.
Marcus Tavernier and Lewis Cook (NFO vs. BOU, $5,800/$4,900): I think any potential downside of Bournemouth playing on the road against Nottingham Forest is outweighed by their favorable pricing. Last season, Bournemouth averaged 7.2 set piece shots and crosses per match while Nottingham Forest conceded on average 6.9 set piece shots and crosses per match. Both numbers, respectively, were 1 above the league average, so I think it's a good opportunity to target Bournemouth's set piece takers.
Generally, I expect Tavernier and Cook to split set pieces, but Cook's role is the safest and he reliably plays 90 minutes. Ryan Christie ($4,500) and Alex Scott ($3,600) have contributed to set pieces as well at Tavernier's expense. Tavernier was frustrating in terms of minutes played on a per match basis, coming off at the 60 minute mark several times last season. Tavernier is a great play if he plays 75 minutes and takes set pieces, but there is some fragility to this.
Danilo (NFO vs. BOU, $4,000): I'm not sprinting to the podium to recommend Danilo, as my analysis is based primarily on last season's set piece trends for Nottingham Forest. Danilo started to split set pieces with Morgan Gibbs-White ($8,900), and if Danilo retains that role, he's a solid salary-relief option. Elliott Anderson ($5,900) is new to the team, and he has taken some corners in preseason. Be careful with Danilo if Anderson is in the starting XI.
One final name worth mentioning in our projected lineups is Kaoru Mitoma ($5,300). Mitoma missed the end of the 23-24 campaign with an injury, but he has played and built up some match fitness in the preseason. Mitoma was an $8,000-tier player at the start of last season and his +360 anytime goalscorer odds are solid for this price. With his ceiling and at this price, I think Mitoma is playable in any format.
DEFENDERS
Valentin Barco (EVE vs. BHA, $5,400): Being very conservative, we can project around 75 minutes and a share of set pieces for Barco. His open floor points per 90 minutes played was above 10 last season. Barco is strong in open play but that is likely to regress down to something like 7 points. Even with modest inputs like this, Barco projects as one of the best values of the slate. If he takes a monopoly of sets and continues elite performance in open play, he's an absolute smash. He's a priority for me.
Lewis Hall ($6,100) is a good option, though a bit pricey. I think he'll split set pieces with Gordon, but he's adequate enough with open play scoring that he doesn't crush you if he is off set pieces. Neco Williams ($5,100) looks fit again after a hamstring injury kept him out at the end of last season. He's an attacking inclined player and usually went 90 minutes under manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Finally, Ben White ($6,000) and Oleksandr Zinchenko ($5,600) are worth GPP consideration for any goal/assist equity in a great matchup, though their floors are below average.
Milos Kerkez (NFO vs. BOU, $3,200): The main thesis for Kerkez is his bargain-bin price. He has a floor of around 4 to 5 points, and a road trip to Nottingham Forest is at worst a neutral matchup. He's playable as a second defender or utility in cash games.
Brighton are likely to play in a 3-4-3 formation with Barco and Tariq Lamptey ($4,900) playing as wing-backs. All of their potential center-back options are cheap and very playable in GPPs on lineups where you speculate Brighton keep a clean sheet. Lewis Dunk ($2,800) takes the occasional direct free kick, while Jean Paul van Hecke ($3,100) always seems to have an above-average floor for a center-back.
GOALKEEPER
It would be nice to be able to afford Arsenal's David Raya ($5,900), but on DraftKings I'm happy to play the cheapest available goalkeeper in cash games if it means meaningful improvement to my outfield spots. Either Jose Sa ($3,600) or Alex McCarthy ($3,800) would be fine in cash.
Jason Steele (EVE vs. BHA, PRICE): Everton were very poor with their finishing last season, with 40 goals scored. While their expected goal total of 54 suggests they were unlucky, that number was still below average in the Premier League. Steele is in the tier just above the punt options but is basically in an even matchup. I mentioned above that the center-backs you can pair with him are extremely cheap and free up salary for other positions. I'm planning on taking a big position on Steele in GPPs for these reasons.
If my luck is anything like last season, Brighton will concede in the first five minutes!
