DFS Soccer 101: How to Choose a Goalkeeper

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Updated on December 1, 2015 7:56AM EST

One part of lineup construction that I believe is heavily overlooked by most daily fantasy players is goalkeeper selection. Most advice articles (mine included) have hammered home the theory that the right way to go at goalkeeper is to take the one with the best odds to win and just pay up and move on. My attempt in this article is to take a look at the actual results and to try to measure a keeper's success based on how they have performed rather than what the book-makers think.

If we are to take the idea of selecting a goalkeeper and trying to evaluate it for effectiveness, we must first take the time to break down our current methodology for selecting keepers. For me, it's a checklist of three items that help me determine if a keeper is worth rostering:

Potential for the win bonus
Potential for the Clean sheet bonus
Potential for plenty of saves

Wins are probably the easiest category to predict for keepers, as we have bookie lines ahead of the games to help us determine when a team is favored. We also have historical context for a team's performance in specific matchups. Alternatively, the clean sheet bonus is the toughest statistic to predict, as a shutout can be wiped out in just a single well-placed shot that beats the keeper and renders 89 minutes of work fruitless. Saves are, however, the riskiest statistic to consider, as a keeper with plenty of saves also means he was put under duress more often and thus, more likely to have conceded a goal. However, for daily fantasy, we need to figure out which statistic to chase in order to guarantee the most points.

The first thing to consider is total saves. Below are the top seven keepers in saves this season:

Player	Club	Team Record (W-D-L)	Saves	Clean Sheets	Goals Conceded	Saves - Goal Conceded	Save %
Costel Pantilimon		3-3-8	59	3	26	33	69.40
Tim Howard		5-6-3	55	4	19	36	74.30
Jack Butland		5-4-5	54	5	14	40	79.40
Brad Guzan		1-2-11	49	2	27	22	64.40
Heurelho Gomes		5-4-5	49	5	15	34	76.50
Boaz Myhill		5-3-6	46	6	18	28	71.80
Petr Cech		8-3-3	44	6	12	32	78.56

The first thing to notice is that only one of these keepers plays on a team that has won more games than it has lost. Petr Cech is seventh in terms of saves, with by far the least goals conceded among the group. The next thing to notice is that while Costel Pantilimon is first in the league in saves, he's also conceded 26 goals in just 14 games, putting him very near the bottom of the list. His saves-minus-goals-conceded is at 33 which puts him fourth in the league. Also, his save percentage is less than 70 percent, which is below average in the league this year for keepers who have played in at least half their team's games.

While saves are a big indicator of total fantasy points, we need to better understand how to predict them, and every game is a bit different, as sometimes a team can be underdogs and the next game be overwhelming favorites. The biggest factor in that determination is the opponent. This is why it's important to look at the opponents when considering saves. The table below breaks down shots and save opportunities based on which opponent a team is facing:

Opp	Saves	Saves Per Game	Opp Goals	Opp SOT	Opp SOT Per Game
TOT	63	4.85	24	87	6.69
MCI	60	4.62	27	87	6.69
ARS	58	4.46	23	81	6.23
LIV	52	4.00	18	70	5.38
CPL	47	3.62	14	61	4.69
LEI	41	3.15	28	69	5.31
SOT	41	3.15	19	60	4.62
CHE	40	3.08	17	57	4.38
SWA	40	3.08	14	54	4.15
EVE	39	3.00	24	63	4.85
NOR	37	2.85	16	53	4.08
MUN	33	2.54	19	52	4.00
BOU	33	2.54	14	47	3.62
WHM	32	2.46	24	56	4.31
NEW	32	2.46	13	45	3.46
WAT	31	2.38	12	43	3.31
SUN	30	2.31	14	44	3.38
WBA	29	2.23	12	41	3.15
STO	28	2.15	10	38	2.92
AVL	25	1.92	10	35	2.69

Tottenham create the most saves per game, while Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Leicester are also in the top-5 in shots and goals. Through the first 14 games this season, these teams were favored a combined 33 out of 36 games at home and 17 of 34 on the road, which means they have been underdogs just 28% of the time.

The other thing to notice is that the teams that challenge the keeper the least number of times are Aston Villa, Stoke, West Brom, Sunderland, Watford and Newcastle. These teams have been notoriously the least successful this season. This combination of factors leads us to the conclusion that targeting the keepers playing against the heavy favorites, which carries some large risk, may actually reap the most rewards.

Putting It All Together

This coming weekend features eight matches on Saturday, with seven on the main slate, and if we consider the home teams that are currently favorites, we have Arsenal, Manchester United, Southampton, Watford and Chelsea. These teams are facing Sunderland, West Ham, Aston Villa, Norwich and Bournemouth. Given what we know about Aston Villa and Sunderland, and specifically Brad Guzan's and Costel Pantilimon's save percentages, we can eliminate them from contention. Of the remaining teams, West Ham are facing Manchester United, who are not a prolific shooting team, and neither are Watford or Chelsea, thus eliminating them from contention as ideal plays at goalkeeper.

If you look at the other side of the ball, with home underdogs, we have Swansea and West Brom facing Leicester and Tottenham, respectively. Of these two, I would target the West Brom defense, as Boaz Myhill's name shows up in the first table with a 71.2 percent save rate and his opponent, Tottenham, lead the league in shots while having a relatively low conversion rate.

Other Notes Ahead of Gameweek 15

Chelsea have looked progressively better tactically in the last few weeks and have seen some decent results, culminating with a 0-0 draw away to Tottenham this past weekend. While Eden Hazard and Willian remain in the top four in touches in the final third over the last four weeks, they haven't seen them translate to monster performances yet. With Hazard moved to the No. 10 role this past weekend and with Bournemouth coming to town, this could be an opportunity for the two Chelsea midfielders to find some form.

Harry Kane is the top shot taker over the last four weeks, with Romelu Lukaku next. Two surprises follow them in Troy Deeney and Dan Gosling before expectedly finishing with Jamie Vardy rounding out the top five.

Junior Stanislas is the only player over the last four weeks with double-digit chances created (10) and shots (11). In that span, he's also managed to score twice and assist on a goal. With Bournemouth visiting Chelsea next week, and Chelsea's improved form, expect that production to taper off a little.

Over the last four weeks, there are seven players with at least nine shots and no goals scored: Matt Ritchie (12 shots), Jonathan Walters (11), Alexis Sanchez (nine), Sadio Mane (nine), Raheem Sterling (nine), Wilfried Bony (nine), and Yohan Cabaye (nine). Of those seven, expect Alexis, Mane and Bony to be the most likely to break their drought the soonest (maybe as soon as this weekend for the latter two, as Alexis is dealing with a hamstring injury), while Cabaye may take the longest to score a goal given his relative proximity to the goal when he takes his shots.