This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.
When it comes to predicting crosses, one of the things that might be overlooked is game flow. The general idea is that when a team falls behind, they are more likely to go into an all-out attack, with the wings playing a vital role. The corollary is that teams that send in a lot of crosses find themselves behind quite a bit, and thus tend to push the pace. Here, we'll examine team crossing statistics and see which ones send in the most compared to their record in the Premier League.| Team | Crosses | Wins | Draws | Losses |
| Crystal Palace | 651 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| Southampton | 638 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| Manchester City | 630 | 14 | 5 | 7 |
| West Brom | 583 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Manchester United | 567 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| Everton | 559 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| Liverpool | 557 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Aston Villa | 557 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| Arsenal | 542 | 15 | 6 | 5 |
| Norwich | 532 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| West Ham | 532 | 10 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle | 525 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 522 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Bournemouth | 514 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
| Tottenham | 505 | 14 | 9 | 3 |
| Swansea City | 502 | 6 | 9 | 11 |
| Leicester City | 496 | 15 | 8 | 3 |
| Stoke City | 452 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| Watford | 440 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| Sunderland | 405 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
The correlation of win/loss record with crosses is a mixed bag. Overall, the theory is that the more a team loses, the more crosses it will deliver down the stretch of games in an attempt to level. I still stand by the theory and will apply it to last week's matches to see how it holds up.
| Home Team | Away Team | First Goal Scored | Home Crosses Before Goal | Home Crosses After Goal | Away Crosses Before Goal | Away Crosses After Goal | More Crosses |
| Sunderland | Manchester United | Sunderland 3' | 0 | 17 | 0 | 22 | losing team |
| Bournemouth | Stoke City | Stoke City 9' | 2 | 26 | 1 | 13 | losing team |
| Crystal Palace | Watford | Watford 16' | 4 | 29 | 4 | 10 | losing team |
| Everton | West Brom | West Brom 14' | 5 | 50 | 3 | 4 | losing team |
| Norwich | West Ham | Norwich 54' | 13 | 5 | 11 | 10 | losing team |
| Swansea City | Southampton | Southampton 69' | 17 | 13 | 17 | 2 | losing team |
| Chelsea | Newcastle | Chelsea 5' | 0 | 14 | 0 | 20 | losing team |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Leicester City 45' | 15 | 35 | 8 | 4 | losing team |
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | Liverpool 16' | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 | winning team |
| Manchester City | Tottenham | Tottenham 53' | 7 | 18 | 11 | 2 | losing team |
You'll notice that despite several teams being heavy underdogs, nine times out of 10 this weekend, the team that conceded a goal first ended up delivering more crosses throughout the rest of the match. The biggest thing to notice is that the rate of crosses increases after a team concedes a goal regardless of when the goal was conceded. The table below shows the rate of crosses as it relates to before and after a team conceded a goal:
| Team | Conceded First? | Min Per Cross Before Goal | Min Per Cross After Goal | Difference |
| Sunderland | no | 0.00 | 5.12 | 5.12 |
| Bournemouth | yes | 4.50 | 3.12 | -1.38 |
| Crystal Palace | yes | 4.00 | 2.55 | -1.45 |
| Everton | yes | 2.80 | 1.52 | -1.28 |
| Norwich | no | 4.15 | 7.20 | 3.05 |
| Swansea City | yes | 4.06 | 1.62 | -2.44 |
| Chelsea | no | 0.00 | 6.07 | 6.07 |
| Arsenal | yes | 3.00 | 1.29 | -1.71 |
| Aston Villa | yes | 5.33 | 7.40 | 2.07 |
| M. City | yes | 7.57 | 2.06 | -5.52 |
| Manchester United | yes | 0.00 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| Stoke City | no | 9.00 | 6.23 | -2.77 |
| Watford | no | 4.00 | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| West Brom | no | 4.67 | 19.00 | 14.33 |
| West Ham | yes | 4.91 | 3.60 | -1.31 |
| Southampton | no | 4.06 | 10.50 | 6.44 |
| Newcastle | yes | 0.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Leicester City | no | 5.63 | 11.25 | 5.63 |
| Liverpool | no | 5.33 | 4.63 | -0.71 |
| Tottenham | no | 4.82 | 18.50 | 13.68 |
The five teams that delivered the most crosses after a goal was scored were all teams that conceded first. These were also the teams that had the most to prove by not losing. Arsenal, Everton, Swansea City, Manchester City and Crystal Palace all increased their rate of crossing after conceding a goal. Arsenal and Manchester City are in a battle for first place, while Everton, Swansea and Crystal Palace were all home teams that fell behind to their opponents and were looking to get back in the game.
Conclusion
While we may never be able to predict who scores first in a match, we can use what we know about how the games will potentially go to help us make better selections for our fantasy teams. For example, one decision I was faced with this weekend was Willian versus Dimitri Payet. On the surface, Willian had a higher floor because he was on a home team that was heavily favored to win, and in fact, Willian scored the first goal five minutes in. Meanwhile, Payet was playing on the road and his team fell behind in the 54th minute and West Ham had to battle from behind to secure a 2-2 draw. And while Willian and Payet both managed to score a goal and an assist, Payet had 12 crosses to Willian's six, leading us to realize after the fact that Payet was the better choice given that his team was on the road and likely had worse odds to win than Willian.
Obviously, this is anecdotal and we cannot take one weekend of events and assume it applies to an entire season. However, I'll be testing out this theory in my analysis and targeting attacking midfielders on teams that may fall behind early and hope that the increase in production helps me when the time comes.
