Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview: More Road Racing on Tap

We leave the street circuit of Coronado Island behind this week and head to more twisting turns as the NASCAR Cup Series will make its third stop of the season on the road course circuit. Sonoma Raceway in California hosts the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this Sunday afternoon. Sonoma Raceway is a 2.52-mile, 12-turn road course with many elevation changes and several different types of corners. The long, relatively straight runs are abruptly ended by many sharp corners, so horsepower and brakes are very important. One lap around Sonoma incurs a total of 160 feet in elevation change, so this course is very hard on the driver and equipment. The 180-degree carrousel turn before the start/finish line provides many passing opportunities to those drivers who can drive in deep and out-brake their opponents. Other than the carousel turn, the drivers have to be on their toes for any opportunity to make a pass. These characteristics make it a tough course for the oval track drivers, because they will struggle to find passing opportunities. 

NASCAR stays in California this week but travels up the valley to Sonoma. This race signals that we're in the middle of the heart of NASCAR's road course schedule. We Just competed on the Naval Base Coronado Street Course this past Sunday. We raced at Watkins Glen in mid-May, so we have three road racing events under our belts in a short, eight-week time frame. Those who had successful performances at Watkins Glen and Coronado Island will be all tuned up and ready to hit the rolling hills of Sonoma this Sunday. Road racing is a specific discipline and those who have the gift tend to perform well no matter where the series visits.

Since this is the fourth of four road/street course events in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule in 2026, we'll have some recent data to examine but we'll also need to cast an eye towards historical trends at this particular facility. The current hot streaks entering this race will play a very small part, but really this style of track requires a lot of historical data review for making our driver lists. There are certain drivers, really good ones, who hate road course racing and it will show up on the track this Sunday. The drivers who have performed well at Sonoma in recent years have a definite advantage in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The loop stats shown below cover the last 20 races at Sonoma Raceway.

The Sonoma road course has always played well to veteran drivers. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart used to dominate here for years. With the retirement of those stars, other veteran drivers have been locked in a battle for supremacy of this California road course. More recently, veterans such as Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. have dominated the twisting turns of the California circuit. We're on the cusp of a possible changing of the guard at Sonoma Raceway. A crop of young drivers like Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Shane van Gisbergen are the next generation of rising stars in the sport, and it will be their task to unseat the veterans at Sonoma. Of those, van Gisbergen is making the most headway in road racing and he's etching out quite a reputation. He won from the pole last season in a dominant performance at the Sonoma circuit and all eyes will be on him again this weekend. We'll take a look at the stats, Sonoma's history and the road course experts in order to give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday

Shane van Gisbergen (-150) – Although his weekend at San Diego was a little rough last Sunday, we expect a full rebound from van Gisbergen as we head to a more predictable and permanent road course this week. The seven-time winner on Cup Series road courses is the gold standard when it comes to NASCAR road racing. His Sonoma debut last season went spectacularly. Van Gisbergen won the pole and led 97 of the 110 laps in an utterly dominant performance to win. He also owns one win and one runner-up finish in two O'Reilly Series starts at the California road course. The Trackhouse Racing star knows this circuit inside and out and will be the driver to beat in Sunday's Toyota / Save Mart 350.          

Tyler Reddick (+850) – The young 23XI Racing driver led 9 laps last Sunday at Naval Base Coronado but wound up a disappointing 25th-place. He'll look to rebound this weekend at Sonoma Raceway. Reddick has qualified on the outside pole here twice in five starts and has 35 total laps led at the circuit. He rides a two-race Sonoma Top-10 streak into Sunday's action, but he's not won here yet in his career. Reddick has top road racing abilities and has four victories and 12 Top-5 finishes on the road/street courses of NASCAR. While the driver of the No. 45 Toyota has yet to cash in at Sonoma, his day is coming. Reddick really represents about the biggest threat to van Gisbergen in this field. 

Chase Elliott (+3500) – Elliott will be making his 10th-career Cup Series start at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday. He's never won at the California track, but he's nabbed five Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes in those starts. The 56-percent Top-5 and 78-percent Top-10 rates speak for themselves. Elliott rides a five-race Sonoma Top-10 streak into this Sunday's action, and he's almost always in the running to win these road racing events. Seven of his 23-career victories have come on road courses (30-percent). That stat combined with his strong 9.3 average finish on these style tracks make them easily his best.

Michael McDowell (+1500) – The veteran Spire Motorsports driver has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his career at Sonoma Raceway and they've all come in his last four starts at the track. McDowell finished runner-up here two seasons ago and a strong fourth-place in last year's Toyota / Save Mart 350. He placed a steady 10th-place in San Diego this past Sunday and finished a brilliant runner-up at Watkins Glen a few weeks ago. The driver of the No. 71 Chevrolet is the sneaky good road racer that could upset some of the bigger names in this field. McDowell's dominant performance and win on the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit in 2023 shouldn't be overlooked.

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Chase Briscoe (+2000) – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has been a steady road racing performer over the past couple of years. Briscoe has nabbed three Top-5 and five Top-10 (50-percent) finishes in his last 10 road course outings. He was a strong fourth-place finisher at Watkins Glen just a few weeks ago. Briscoe has five-career Cup Series starts at Sonoma Raceway, however, the results have been subpar. That is until he made his Joe Gibbs Racing debut at the track last season. Briscoe put his Toyota on the outside pole, led 2 laps and finished a brilliant runner-up in the Toyota / Save Mart 350. That experience and the notes from it will come in very handy this weekend.

Chris Buescher (+2200) – Riding a three-race Top-10 steak into this weekend and coming off a strong sixth-place finish at Naval Base Coronado, Buescher has some momentum coming into Sonoma. He has been a super consistent performer on the winding circuits the past year plus. Over the last 10 road racing events, the veteran driver has nabbed a victory and six Top-10 finishes and a dazzling 9.7 average finish. The driver of the No. 17 Ford isn't going to lead a lot of laps nor really challenge for the win, but Buescher will keep close contact with the leaders the full race as his recent production indicates. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has three Top 5's in his last four Sonoma Raceway starts.

Kyle Larson (+900) – We're accustomed to slotting Larson in the contenders list most weeks, especially on ovals. He does ride a three-race Top-10 streak into this weekend, including his brilliant third-place finish this past Sunday at Coronado Island. Larson brings race-winning capability to the table (six-career road course wins), however, his Top-10 percentages and average finish are much better on ovals than road circuits. Sonoma Raceway is probably his favorite of these circuits. Larson is a two-time winner here and he's won the pole position at the track a stunning five times between 2017 and 2022. He's led over a 100 career laps at the track in the hills of California. Larson won this event in 2024 in a very strong performance.

Ty Gibbs (+2000) – Gibbs grabbed his first-career Sonoma Top 10 in his third attempt in last season's Toyota / Save Mart 350. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota qualified well at sixth on the starting grid and wheeled through 110 laps of curves and elevation changes to finish seventh-place in this event last year. Gibbs has really picked up his performance on these winding circuits in 2026 with fourth- and third-place finishes earlier this season at COTA and Watkins Glen. He was Top 15 this past Sunday on the new circuit at Coronado Island, and that isn't half bad. We expect good things from this driver and team in Sunday's road racing battle in Sonoma.  

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Sonoma & Solid Upside

Ryan Blaney (+1400) – Coming off a ninth-place finish on the Naval Base Coronado and riding a five-race Top-10 streak, we really like Blaney to keep it going this weekend. The Penske Racing star has always liked Sonoma Raceway, probably more so than most of the road courses of NASCAR's top division. Blaney has five Top-10 finishes in nine starts at Sonoma for a strong 56-percent Top-10 rate. four of those five Top 10's has come in just his last six starts alone. The last two seasons have been a mixed bag for the No. 12 Ford team on the winding tracks. Blaney has four Top-10 finishes on road circuits in his last 10 attempts. Qualifying well has still been greatly improved of late and he's reaping the benefits of that good starting track position.

AJ Allmendinger (+2200) – Allmendinger is a bit of a dice roll when it comes to Sonoma Raceway. He has a bit of a love-hate affair going on with this track. However, the Kaulig Racing veteran's skills at road racing are unquestionable. Over the past year plus he's nabbed five Top-10 finishes on these style tracks and accrued a reasonable 14.5 average finish across those 10 events. Allmendinger is a very aggressive driver in these style races, and he always goes for the win, which can sometimes result in disaster. Still, the driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet carries a lot of upside (Top-5 and laps led upside) in every road course event that he enters. This past weekend he was a fifth-place finisher on the streets of Naval Base Coronado.  

Joey Logano (+10000) – Coming off a decent 18th-place finish in the inaugural Coronado Island race last weekend, it could be that the No. 22 Ford team is finally turning the corner on a slow start to the 2026 season. The Penske Racing star will get the "equalizer" of a road circuit thrown his way this weekend, so it becomes less about the car and more about the driver at Sonoma. Logano has been a steady performer over the years at Sonoma Raceway with a respectable 44-percent Top-10 rate and Top 10's in two of his last three starts there. He's been a bit inconsistent over the past year on these winding circuits, however, Sonoma seems to be a special exception in his case. Logano's 13.2 average finish at Sonoma is well ahead of his career marks on all road courses of 15.3.

Bubba Wallace (+9000) – The 23XI Racing driver has seven-career starts at Sonoma. So, experience is there, but the results are thin. With just one Top-15 vs. four finishes outside the Top 25, the results are subpar at best. The average finish checks in around 24.0. However, Wallace has been improving his game in this racing discipline. He's coming off an electric runner-up finish on the streets of Coronado Island and looking to build on that momentum. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota finished a steady 11th-place earlier this season at COTA and eighth-place last season at Watkins Glen. The results of late have been vastly improved for this driver and team. Wallace has a decent shot of collecting his first-career Sonoma Top 10 this Sunday afternoon.   

Ross Chastain (+5500) – Melon Man has slowly been reversing a poor start to the season and his modest two-race Top-10 streak entering this weekend is proof of that. Chastain was a strong seventh-place finisher this past Sunday on the street course of Coronado Island. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has past success in road racing just not much of late. However, Chastain has always been strong at Sonoma Raceway. His four Top 10's in six starts works out to a strong 67-percent rate and decent 14.3 average finish. Given his current momentum and good track record at Sonoma, we expect big things from Chastain in the Toyota / Save Mart 350.

Daniel Suarez (+5000) – No one will forget Suarez and his incredible drive here at Sonoma Raceway in 2022. He would lead 47 laps that day and grab the surprising victory in the Toyota / Save Mart 350. Suarez hasn't been spectacular here since, but he's generally been a Top-15 finisher at least in the last two Sonoma races. The Spire Motorsports driver has also been a Top-15 finisher recently at Watkins Glen and just this past weekend in San Diego. It all bodes well for another trip to Sonoma Raceway this weekend. The driver of the No. 7 Chevrolet sports a steady 13.9 average finish at the rolling track in eight-career starts. We're used to seeing solid performances from Suarez at this track.

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Christopher Bell (+4500) – Bell normally carries race-winning potential on these road courses, but his health is of foremost concern this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star had to step out of the car after just a dozen laps at Coronado Island last Sunday due to his still-healing broken wrist. His replacement driver would make it just another 16 laps before having to become the race's first retirement with an engine failure. Since suffering the broken wrist at Michigan, Bell has finishes of 31st-, 26th- and 39th-place in the three events. Despite having three-career wins and stellar stats on NASCAR road circuits, we have to recommend the fantasy bench for this driver and team this week.   

Denny Hamlin (+9000) – Hamlin's road course performance over the past year plus has been a bit more miss than hit. He brings fast cars to these tracks, but getting the finishes has been tough. For example, Hamlin has grabbed just two Top-15 finishes in the 10 starts on these style tracks and has led 0 laps. The average finish comes in at a disappointing 21.1. Hamlin has 19-career starts at Sonoma Raceway, but just seven Top-10 finishes (37-percent).  This is lower than we like to see in a solid fantasy play. Also, he's ran into trouble in his last four starts and Sonoma and finished outside the Top 20 in each. This driver and team carry far too great a risk.

William Byron (+2200) – It's been pretty slim pickings for Byron this season and especially on road circuits. While he was Top 15 at COTA much earlier in the season, more recently he's been a disappointing 36th- and 32nd-place at Watkins Glen and San Diego. It has put a tarnish on what is normally a pretty steady record for Byron on these style tracks. Not withstanding his two-career wins and typical 40-percent Top-10 rate on Cup Series road circuits, we have to pay foremost attention to current level of performance for the No. 24 Chevrolet team. Byron is struggling through one of his most challenging seasons since his rookie year of 2018.

Josh Berry (+30000) – Despite Berry's limited success on small and larger ovals this season, he's still a driver to avoid on the winding circuits of NASCAR. The Wood Brothers Racing driver struggled to a disappointing 29th-place finish at San Diego this past week and he's grabbed only two Top-20 finishes in his last 10 starts on the road circuits. That average finish is working out to a whopping 25.3. As for Sonoma Raceway, Berry has very little experience racing here. His two Cup Series starts at Sonoma average to a disappointing 22.5 average finish. The No. 21 Ford team and Berry have no fantasy upside at all in the Toyota / Save Mart 350.