Straight Talk Wireless 500 Preview: The Desert Jewel

Straight Talk Wireless 500

We stay out west this weekend and head from Texas to Arizona to continue the West Coast Swing. This week NASCAR's top racing series stops at one of the more unique tracks on the circuit, Phoenix Raceway. The track at Avondale, Arizona is an irregular "D" shaped oval with very low, progressive banking in the corners of eight to 11 degrees. The straights are nearly flat at a lowly three degrees, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. This oval is vastly different than Daytona or Atlanta. Phoenix boasts the high speeds that borders on intermediate ovals with the close confines of short track racing as well. As we have witnessed in the last several years, it's often the driver who brings the fastest car to the Arizona desert that walks away with the trophy. This race is typically marked by dominant performances, and very rarely by late momentum swings that catapult drivers into victory lane. The driver who has led the most laps at this oval has won eight of the last 13 Phoenix races. This is a trend that will likely continue this Sunday.

Since we are making our first stop of the season in the Arizona desert this week, we can only really look back on past statistics for Phoenix Raceway. This style of racing is a big departure from the big ovals and road circuit that we've spent the first three weeks of the season competing on. At this point we're tracking trends, but the change of racing style this week demands that we visit the historical figures with some emphasis. The recent loop statistics at Phoenix Raceway will be the most important data we will examine this week. The historical trends at the Phoenix oval are as important as anywhere in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 21 years or 42 races at Phoenix Raceway.

This is the first race at the Phoenix oval since last November when NASCAR's top division rolled into the Arizona desert to crown last season's champion. Denny Hamlin would put on a dominant performance and lead 208 of the 319 laps that November afternoon. However, it wouldn't be Hamlin, rather it would be Ryan Blaney who would rise late in overtime and win this final clash of the season. Brad Keselowski would lose the lead to Blaney on the final lap and would finish runner-up instead. Kyle Larson would cross the stripe an impressive third-place and that would be good enough to crown Larson last season's NASCAR Cup Series champion. Considering that we're just four, short months removed from that race, we have to look very closely at what happened in the Cup Series Championship Race. That race and its data will be very fresh and relevant to this week's Straight Talk Wireless 500. Blaney's win gave Ford their second victory at the Phoenix oval in the last three events.

If Toyota hopes to climb back into top status at Phoenix Raceway, their hopes will primarily ride with Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin. The duo were the strongest Toyota drivers in both Phoenix races last season, and Bell has two Phoenix victories in his last four attempts. If Ford hopes to continue their dominance of Phoenix, their big hitters will be Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Logano is a four-time winner at Phoenix Raceway. Blaney picked up his first-career victory there last fall and he has taken four runner-up finishes in the last seven events at the Phoenix oval. If Chevrolet hopes to stir up some trouble this weekend it will likely come in the form of either Kyle Larson or William Byron. Those two have been the heaviest hitters for the bowtie brand on the short tracks and specifically here at Phoenix Raceway. We'll highlight the teams mentioned above, and some others who will be vying for the win at Phoenix. 

The Contenders – Those in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday

Christopher Bell (+650) – The winner of two of the last four Phoenix races sizes up as one of our top contenders this weekend. Bell registered his first Top 5 of the season with his third-place effort at Austin this past Sunday, so he's getting some momentum ahead of Phoenix. Make no mistake, Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team are the outfit to beat in the Straight Talk Wireless 500. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has won this event for the last two years running and he's led a combined 298 laps in his last four Phoenix starts. Bell's recent power surge at this track has boosted his Top-10 rate here to 58-percent and a sharp 12.9 average finish. He'll be the driver to beat Sunday at Phoenix Raceway.

Ryan Blaney (+550) – Blaney is seeking to crack the win column for the first time in 2026 this weekend at Phoenix. He'll look to capitalize on some recent gains and success he's had on the Avondale oval. Phoenix Raceway had been a bit of a mixed bag for the driver of the No. 12 Ford up until just recently. Blaney grabbed his first Phoenix victory in last season's Championship race and he's grabbed four runner-up finishes here since 2022. The recent heater has elevated the Penske Racing star's stats at Phoenix Raceway to a strong 50-percent Top-5 rate and 70-percent Top-10 rate with impressive 10.9 average finish. Now that Blaney has scratched the win column at the Phoenix oval, expect more victories to come.  

Kyle Larson (+650) – Larson is looking to reverse a slow start to this season. The one-time Phoenix winner has Top 5's in five of his last six starts at the desert short track coming into this weekend's action. Larson's last performance at this track netted a strong third-place finish in the NASCAR Championship Race last November. That effort has lifted Larson's career Top-10 rate at Phoenix to a strong 65-percent. He also cracks the Top 5 at this oval at an impressive 48-percent rate. It's really surprising that he's only grabbed one-career victory at this race track. Coming off a strong sixth-place finish at COTA, Larson and this race team are gathering some momentum prior to the Straight Talk Wireless 500.    

Joey Logano (+1200) – The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a four-time Phoenix winner and his last outing at the track last November rewarded Logano with a strong fourth-place finish. It marks a surge in performance for Logano at this facility in recent visits. The Penske Racing star has led a combined 800 laps in his last 13 starts at Phoenix Raceway. He's also cracked the Top 10 in four of his last eight starts at the Arizona short track heading into Sunday's action. Since the 2020 season alone, he's compiled three wins and one runner-up finish at the Desert Jewel. That has boosted his career Top-5 rate at this track to a strong 29-percent. Logano is a great candidate to crack the Top 10 and be a contender to win in the Straight Talk Wireless 500.  

Solid Plays – Near Locks for a Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

William Byron (+750) – The winner of this event three years ago easily makes the solid plays list this week. Byron led 64 laps in this event three seasons ago and took his first-career Phoenix win to the bank. He won the pole, led 95 laps and finished fourth at this oval in November of that same year, so Byron had a pretty stellar season at this track in 2023. He has finished inside the Top 10 in five of his last seven Phoenix Raceway starts and lowered his career average finish here to a pretty sharp 12.2. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has led 340 combined laps at this oval with most coming since the 2023 season. Byron had a dynamite car here last November but would run into some trouble and not get the finish he deserved.  

Tyler Reddick (+1100) – With his third-consecutive victory to start the season last Sunday in Austin, Reddick is on fire coming to Arizona this week. The 23XI Racing youngster hasn't been a world beater at Phoenix Raceway, but he's had some notable success in recent starts. Three of his last six efforts at the Arizona oval have netted Top-10 finishes. That has boosted his overall Top-10 percentage at the track to 33-percent, which bodes well for this weekend's Straight Talk Wireless 500. He's also not been a big lap leader here, but Reddick seems to qualify reasonably well and that's a big factor at this smaller oval. Coming off the momentum of his huge Circuit of the Americas performance, we expect big things for Reddick this Sunday.  

Denny Hamlin (+550) – Hamlin has been one of the best short track drivers in the series the last several seasons. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has two-career Phoenix victories to his credit. The last came in his start here in the Fall of 2019. Hamlin cracks the Top 5 in 42-percent of his starts at Phoenix Raceway. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 1,100 laps for his career at Phoenix, and he's usually no worse than a Top-10 finisher. Hamlin finished runner-up in this event one year ago and he led a dominating 208 laps at Phoenix last November before finishing a strong sixth-place. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has had a bit of a slow start to the 2026 season, but this is a race and an oval that can get him back in the Top-10 column this Sunday afternoon.

Chris Buescher (+2800) – Phoenix Raceway isn't one of Buescher's top statistical ovals. In fact, he labored here for several years before earning his first Top 10 at the track in early 2022. However, since then the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has nabbed three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last eight Phoenix starts. Last November Buescher started ninth on the grid and rode home to a steady 12th-place finish in the NASCAR Championship Race. That puts his Phoenix Raceway average finish at a robust 6.6 over his most recent five-race span. That is well below his career 18.2 average finish at the track and a much better sampling of what to expect in Sunday's Straight Talk Wireless 500.        

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Phoenix & Solid Upside

Chase Elliott (+1400) – The season has gotten off to a pretty good start and Elliott has two Top 10's in the first three events. The seventh-place finish at COTA this past week went a long way towards boosting Elliott's confidence. We head to Phoenix this week and as you can see from the loop data chart, Elliott has really carved this small oval up during his 11-season career. The driver rating is off the charts and his 12.1-career average finish at Phoenix Raceway is a good stat to focus on. Elliott boasts a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate at the Desert Jewel and his last start at the track netted a 10th-place finish last November. We expect the Hendrick Motorsports star to be a high-ceiling fantasy racing performer this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Busch (+3000) – It's been a mixed start to the season for this driver and team but Top 15's at Daytona and COTA are encouraging signs. Busch is a three-time winner at Phoenix, and two of those victories and a runner-up finish have come since 2018 at the Phoenix oval. Despite consistency issues last season, he racked up eighth- and fifth-place finishes at Phoenix Raceway last year. His 28-career Top 10's at Phoenix work out to a strong 68-percent Top-10 rate and stellar 11.2 average finish across 41-career starts. We expect to see a much better qualifying effort, much better speed and the ability to race in and challenge the Top 10 from Busch and the No. 8 Chevrolet team.

Chase Briscoe (+1200) – Briscoe is a one-time Phoenix winner (2022) and his four Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts work out to a decent 40-percent Top-10 rate. His move to Joe Gibbs Racing should only bolster is ability to perform well at the Desert Jewel. We believe he loves this particular short track and are willing to write off last November's subpar finish as an outlier. As proof, we offer Briscoe's Xfinity Series career record at the Phoenix track. He was four-for-four in starts/Top 10's at the facility prior to his promotion to the Cup Series in 2021. The 7.3 average finish across those four performances is nothing short of stellar. We expect big things for Briscoe this weekend in Phoenix.

Ross Chastain (+2000) – The Trackhouse Racing veteran labored for a lot of seasons at the Desert Jewel until finally moving into the No. 1 Chevrolet back in 2022. Chastain has grabbed one win and one runner-up finish at Phoenix Raceway since joining this race team. His four Top 10's in the eight starts since that promotion check in at a reasonable 50-percent Top-10 rate which is well above his career Top-10 rate at Phoenix of just 27-percent. Chastain claimed respectable 11th- and 13th-place finishes in his two starts at Phoenix Raceway last season. We believe he has the speed and driving ability to forge an even better finish in Sunday's Straight Talk Wireless 500.    

Brad Keselowski (+2800) – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford finished runner-up at Phoenix last November. That is a great last look at this facility heading into this weekend's action. That was Keselowski's third-career runner-up finish at Phoenix and despite never having won here, he has been consistent. The veteran driver sports a strong 30-percent Top-5 rate here and equally impressive 46-percent Top-10 rate at the Desert Jewel. The 13.9 average finish across 33 starts is very impressive and his recent sampling of 13.5 average finish in his last four Phoenix starts backs that up. Keselowski has performed reasonably well in the first three events of this season, but this is a weekend where he could really shine.    

Josh Berry (+2800) – The Wood Brothers Racing driver has performed very well at this one-mile oval in his limited Cup Series experience. Berry has nabbed three Top-10 finishes in just five starts with two of those coming last season alone. The driver of the No. 21 Ford racked up a strong fourth-place in this event one year ago and followed it up with an equally impressive seventh-place finish at Phoenix last November. Berry has short track skills and it shows every time we visit this oval outside of Phoenix. After opening the season with a Top 10 at Daytona, he's had a rough couple outings at Atlanta and COTA. Berry and this race team should rebound nicely in the Straight Talk Wireless 500.  

Slow Down – Drivers to Avoid this Week

Austin Cindric (+5500) – A slow start to the season has Cindric sitting 31st in the driver point standings as we visit Arizona this week. Things don't look very encouraging for a turnaround at this track. The Penske Racing driver could be in for more struggles this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has eight-career Cup Series starts at the Arizona oval and has just two Top-15 finishes in those efforts vs. five finishes outside the Top 20. The average finish is coming in around a disappointing 24.6 for this driver and team. Despite qualifying well here last November, Cindric labored to a disappointing 34th-place finish in the Championship Race. Cindric is much more well known for his superspeedway performance than his short tracks skills.       

Ty Gibbs (+6000) – The start to the 2025 campaign couldn't have gone much worse for Gibbs and the No. 54 Toyota team. The young driver has just one Top-10 finish in the first three events of the season and two finishes outside the Top 20. Gibbs will look to change his luck in this Sunday's Straight Talk Wireless 500. However, his consistency has been nonexistent in his first six Cup Series starts at Phoenix Raceway. Gibbs earned an incredible third-place finish in this event two years ago. But his other five starts have all been finishes outside the Top 20. Last season's 25th- and 21st-place Phoenix performances fall right in line with his career average finish here of 23.0.  

Bubba Wallace (+4000) – Wallace had seemed to be heading in the right direction at Phoenix in the 2023 and 2024 seasons. However, he reverted to old Phoenix form here last year. The 23XI Racing veteran posted 29th- and 37th-place finishes at the Desert Jewel in 2025 and set back some of the good efforts he had posted here the two previous seasons. For Wallace's career he now has 16 Cup Series starts at this one-mile oval and only three Top-10 finishes to show for which checks in at 19-percent. The 20.7 average finish across those starts tell the tale. Wallace has struggled his entire career at Phoenix Raceway to stay on the lead lap and collect reasonable finishes.   

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+25000) – After finishing runner-up in the Daytona 500, the veteran driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet came back to Earth with his 28th-place finish at COTA this past Sunday on the heels of his Atlanta DNF. Stenhouse will now look to rebound on a tougher oval this Sunday in Phoenix. The HYAK Motorsports veteran has struggled at Phoenix Raceway over the years. In 26-career starts he has just two Top-10 finishes (8-percent) and an average finish of 21.8. Last season Stenhouse struggled to 21st- and 17th-place finishes at the Desert Jewel. This is one short track that he's never been able to solve. This driver and team are much more well known for their superspeedway performance than short track prowess. We don't have a very optimistic outlook for Stenhouse this weekend