NASCAR Barometer: Bowyer Holds on to Win Rain-Shortened Race

Clint Bowyer used a two-tire stop to gain track position, and then held on through a white-knuckle restart to win a rain-shortened race at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday. The afternoon's race was originally delayed more than two hours by rain, but the competitors were able to complete the first two stages to make the running official. It was Bowyer who made the right decision in the pits to come out to battle with teammate Kevin Harvick on the final restart. The pair fought hard, but Harvick relented, giving Bowyer the lead until the skies opened. It was a dominant day from the entire Stewart-Haas Racing team, with three drivers sweeping the top finishing positions.

The series takes one week off before heading out West to tackle the first road course event of the season at Sonoma Raceway. Kevin Harvick is the defending winner there, and the rest of the garage will need that extra weekend to gain some ground on the Ford teams that have dominated the season so far.

UPGRADE

Clint Bowyer –Bowyer and team played the strategy game to perfection Sunday in Michigan, staying out long enough to be holding the top spot when rain hit the track and ended the afternoon's proceedings. That call gave him his second win of the season and capped off an impressive afternoon from Stewart-Haas Racing. However, it wasn't all strategy. Bowyer impressively held off teammate Harvick to hold that spot on the final restart, and that was what got the job done for him and the team. Bowyer is also a previous winner at Sonoma and has two top-five finishes in his last three races at the circuit. His average finish from 12 starts is an impressive 10.7, which should make him a top fantasy selection for the race.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney picked up his fourth stage win of the season by holding off the field on a quick restart following a spin by Matt Kenseth after leading 15 laps. The Penske Racing driver found himself out of track position in the final stage but climbed his way forward to claim another top-10. The top finishes are starting to build for the organization, and while Penske hasn't always had the speed to match Stewart-Haas, they are getting better as the season moves on. Blaney has two Cup starts under his belt at Sonoma, and his best race at the track was last season, when he started seventh and finished ninth. More importantly, he takes some top-10 momentum into the off week.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick turned on the afterburner in the second stage on Sunday. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver took off from the field and cruised to the eighth stage win of his season directly ahead of two of his teammates. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to overtake teammate Bowyer on the final restart of the race, and that was it for Harvick as he ended up in the runner-up position as the rain fell and the race was halted. Harvick is the defending winner at Sonoma but also has seven other top-10 finishes at the track. He has proven himself to be formidable at most tracks this season but should also be a contender in two weeks when the series hits the road course.

Brad Keselowski – No Michigan-born driver has ever won the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup race at Michigan, and Keselowski will have to wait another season to change that. The Penske Racing driver was in prime position for a great afternoon starting from the front row but he'll have to go into the off week with a top-10 finish as consolation. Penske just couldn't match the pace of Stewart-Haas. The good news for Keselowski and the Penske organization is that Ford remains the dominant engine. Keselowski's hunt for his first win of the season will continue after next week's break at Sonoma Raceway, where the Michigander has one top-five and two top-10s from eight career starts, including third in last years visit.

Ford – Ford-powered cars were the story at Michigan last week. The manufacturer locked out the front row in qualifying and then went on top put seven of their cars into the top 10 at the finish. It was an impressive display in the heart of American auto manufacturing. The blue oval has been ever present at the front of the field throughout 2018, but Sunday's domination this deep into the season has to give the rest of the garage pause. Bowyer's win was Ford's eighth of the season, while Toyota has six, and Chevrolet has just one. The Ford train doesn't appear to be slowing, and teams will need to maximize this off week to close the game before Sonoma.

DOWNGRADE

Kyle Larson – Larson was another driver who lost control and went spinning out of position at Michigan on Sunday. His quest for a fourth consecutive win at the track went unfulfilled as he collected the infield grass. His strong run in Pocono should have carried forward to another top finish at Michigan but it just didn't materialize. He started deep in the field, charged forward but spun out of contention in the second stage. In the end, he was only able to climb back to 28th position before rain ended the race. Despite starting on pole once at Sonoma, he has yet to score a top-10 finish at the track in four career starts, and one of his best shots at winning this season may have passed.

Matt Kenseth – Even a return to Michigan couldn't bring success to Kenseth's return to Roush Fenway Racing. Sunday's race in Michigan was his last scheduled appearance in the car until September, meaning Trevor Bayne will be back in the saddle next week at Sonoma. His veteran perspective and vast experience was meant to give the team a boost as they work to regain the competitiveness they lost a few seasons ago. Things haven't turned around quite yet, but his time in the seat will certainly have given the team areas on which to work. They will now return to their regularly scheduled driver, and Kenseth will return in Indianapolis. The question remains just how much Kenseth's feedback will benefit Bayne in the next few races.

Darrell Wallace Jr. – An early spin while racing alongside David Ragan dropped Ragan out of the race and lost Wallace valuable track position. He spent the remainder of the race distance circulating off of the lead lap but did manage to climb just inside the top 20 before the premature race end. Wallace has shown moments of promise with his new team in the Cup series but has some distance to cover to begin delivering consistency. He has never raced on a road course in the Monster Energy Cup series but he did have two top-10s from two starts at Road America in the Xfinity series. He also snagged a top-10 at Mid-Ohio in that series, and both of those tracks are similar to the terrain he will face at Sonoma.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez got caught in a gaggle of cars and went spinning at the start of the second stage on Sunday. His car didn't sustain major damage, but it did lose him track position. He never recovered from that issue and wound up well out of contention with just a 30th-place finish at a circuit. He should have been capable of much more. While Toyota was behind Ford all weekend, Suarez still needs to be getting the most out of the equipment he has on hand. He hasn't been doing that much this season, which is a concern for fantasy rosters. Suarez has one Sonoma start in the Cup series. He started that race 11th and finished 16th but did finish third at Watkins Glen later in the year.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – On a rainy afternoon where Ford-powered cars ran up front, Stenhouse languished deeper in the running and then crashed. The former race-winner didn't have the speed to battle in the top 10, and being held down in traffic cost him, as he made contact and spun into the outside wall and out of the running for a respectable finish. Stenhouse continues to run quickly at restrictor-plate race tracks, but Michigan was not going to be a great success for him. Unfortunately, Sonoma won't be either. The Roush Fenway Racing driver has five Sonoma starts to his credit but only has a best finish of 20th. That result came in 2015, and his average finish at the track is 28.4.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Kyle Busch – Some were seeing Busch as a reasonable favorite heading into Sunday's race at Michigan. Busch has been one of the few non-Ford drivers able to get the job done consistently at the front of the field this season, and he made a valiant charge under difficult circumstances to finish an impressive fourth. An unapproved splitter put him at an early disadvantage as his car failed prerace inspection, which forced him to start at the back. That certainly made his afternoon more difficult, but many kept their high expectations. He did well under the circumstances to work his way forward quickly, and that translated into another top-five finish. As Toyota closes the gap to Ford, look for Busch to take advantage and grab more wins along the way.