Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview: The Chase Comes to Richmond

We head to Richmond, Va., and Richmond International Raceway this weekend for the second race of the Chase for the Cup. During the Chase era, this has been the track where NASCAR has ended its regular season, and determined the field for the Chase. However, the schedule got a shakeup heading into 2018, and now this exciting night race on the historic short track plays host to the second race of 10 that determine the Monster Energy Cup Series champion. The urgency and the heated competition will be different this weekend. Instead of trying to make it across the cutline for the playoffs, drivers will instead be trying to make it past the cut of the first round of the Chase. This Richmond race will have a different feel, but all the same importance as the past. Drivers will be going all out to grab that valuable win that transfers them into the second round of the Chase playoffs. As we saw at Las Vegas this past weekend, drivers are taking chances at this point in the season that they have not up until this point. That will make for higher stakes, more contact, harder racing and when we put that under the lights at Richmond International Raceway, we're sure to be thrilled by what we see take place.

Since Richmond's oval is a short track with its own group of dominant drivers, let's take a quick look at the recent history at RIR and see who will be running up front this weekend. The short tracks usually produce familiar names when it comes to driver efficiency, so some of these drivers should look familiar as compared to Bristol which was run just a few weeks ago. The urgency to advance in the Chase will have an impact on performances, but we still expect the short track aces to have the best outings at Richmond. Here are the loop stats for the last 27 races at Richmond International Raceway.

Once again this weekend, the biggest threat to Toyota dominance at Richmond will come from the Ford teams of Stewart Haas Racing and Penske Racing. Brad Keselowski is on fire right now and riding a huge three-race win streak coming to Virginia. His Penske teammate, Joey Logano, is also surging and has three Top-5 finishes in the last four races. Kevin Harvick is one of the top drivers to beat every week, and Richmond weekend will be no exception. Also, we can't count out the powerful Chevrolet of Kyle Larson. He won this event one year ago at Richmond, and is coming off a strong runner-up performance this past week at Las Vegas. We also can't rule out another Toyota contender this week, outside the Joe Gibbs camp. Martin Truex Jr. has never won at the Richmond oval, but he's flirted heavily with winning here in three of his last four starts. Truex has led a whopping 512 laps in those four combined races, but has somehow managed to miss victory lane here. With so much on the line for so many drivers and teams this weekend, there's certainly going to be a lot of scrambling in this 400-lap event. The following is our review of the drivers to challenge for the checkers, and to post solid runs at Richmond International Raceway.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kevin Harvick - The SHR star showed a lot of potential at Las Vegas last weekend. However, a tire failure would ruin his day and put a damper on his start to the Chase for the Cup. The urgency to rebound and get back into the championship hunt will be paramount this week. Harvick is just too good at Richmond International Raceway to ignore. He is a three-time winner at the small oval, including the 2013 Toyota Owners 400. Harvick also sports an incredible 63-percent Top-10 rate at this facility. The veteran driver has cracked the Top 5 in four of his last five Richmond starts. With well over 1,000 laps led at this oval, Harvick has to feel very confident going into the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Kyle Busch - Richmond International Raceway is statistically Busch's best oval on the circuit. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has five-career victories and a whopping 16 Top-5 finishes at the Virginia short track. The driver of the No. 18 Toyota clearly knows how to run up front at Richmond, and the numbers bear this out. His 16 Top-5 finishes check in at a stellar 62-percent rate for the surging star of this Toyota racing camp. Busch won earlier this season at RIR, and that makes him a very dangerous driver this Saturday night. He's been one of the top short track performers of the season with two wins, and two runner-up finishes on the bull ring circuit.

Brad Keselowski - The Penske Racing star is on fire coming to Richmond. After the upset win at Las Vegas last weekend, he's now on an improbable three-race win streak entering Chase race number two. Keselowski will look to exploit his short track racing expertise in this 400-lap event. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has subpar career numbers at the Richmond oval, but he's been getting better quickly in recent appearances. He won this event in 2014, finished runner-up in the spring 2017 Richmond race, and he's led over 750 laps since the 2013 season at Richmond International Raceway. Keselowksi finished a steady eighth in April's Toyota Owners 400, but we feel he'll be much faster this time around.

Kyle Larson - Larson has high hopes for a good finish this weekend at RIR. He's already climbing the standings after his runner-up finish at Vegas last weekend to kick off the Chase. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver's performances at this oval the last two years have been very noteworthy. Larson won this event one year ago for his first Richmond victory, and he finished runner-up in this event two years ago. You could say the fall race at RIR is definitely in his wheelhouse. The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet qualified fifth and finished seventh here in the spring, and that's not half bad all things considered. Larson has been greatly improved on the short tracks this season with two pole positions, 217 laps led and two runner-up finishes.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Martin Truex Jr. - Coming off the strong performance and Top-5 finish at Las Vegas, Truex is getting the ship righted as we enter the Chase. The No. 78 Toyota team led 121 laps but finished 14th this past April at Richmond International Raceway, and that's just the last of a few strong runs for this driver at this short track. Truex has eight-career Top 10s at the ¾-mile oval and four of them have come in just his last seven trips to central Virginia. The Furniture Row Racing star turned in his career-best Richmond performance in this event two years ago. Truex led 193 laps and finished third in that Federated Auto Parts 400. He has the capacity to turn in that same performance again. The 2017 champion knows he's defending his crown this weekend, so Truex should up his game accordingly.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is coming to Richmond at the right time. His disappointing crash and DNF at Las Vegas this past week has the No. 11 JGR team looking forward to a better oval. He is a three-time Richmond winner (including this event two years ago), and he sports a strong 46-percent Top-5 rate at the ¾-mile oval. With over 1,650 laps led at RIR, Hamlin is quite comfortable with racing at this historic short track. In April's Toyota Owners 400, the Joe Gibbs Racing star qualified fourth on the grid, led 6 laps and finished third. The performance extended Hamlin's current Richmond Top-10 streak to six races. He has the ability to sneak up and win Saturday night, although he's a much safer Top-10 play for fantasy racing purposes.

Joey Logano - The Penske Racing star has been greatly improved over the last several weeks. Logano has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in the last five events. That has the No. 22 team surging entering the Chase for the Cup. Logano is quite skilled at racing at Richmond as his stats bear out. The Penske Racing star rides a nine-race Richmond Top-10 streak into this weekend, and he has two career victories at the Virginia short track. In April's Toyota Owners 400, Logano led 92 laps and finished fourth at the end of that Saturday evening. He has all the capability in the world to repeat that performance again this Saturday night.

Kurt Busch - Busch has high hopes for the Chase this season, and the Stewart Haas Racing driver should be very competitive this Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway. Busch enters Richmond weekend sixth in the Chase for the Cup standings, but seeking a valuable win that would lock him into the next round of the Chase. He has been very competitive the last several weeks with an eight-race Top-10 streak snapped because of some bad luck at Las Vegas this past weekend. The driver of the No. 41 Ford has a win and six Top 10s in his last eight Richmond starts. The last time the series was in action on a short track in August, it was Busch who walked away the winner at the end of the night.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Richmond who can provide a solid finish

Erik Jones - The impressive Joe Gibbs Racing youngster got caught up in someone else's problem at Las Vegas last week, and that's been the only thing to slow Jones down of late. Prior to that mishap, the driver of the No. 20 Toyota had a three-race Top-10 streak going. We have to downgrade him just a bit this week because of the start on a short track. They've not been Jones' best ovals this season. However, he did turn in his best short track performance of the season just a few weeks ago at Bristol with a stellar fifth-place effort. Jones did finish sixth in this event one year ago at Richmond International Raceway, so that has to be a confidence booster. He's a good fantasy racing play with a high ceiling again this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson - This is typically the race where Clark Kent steps into the phone booth and becomes Superman. Johnson has muddled through most of the season, but he's been superb on the short tracks in 2018. We expect that to happen again this weekend. Johnson owns three-career victories at this oval and 14 Top-10 finishes. Those are not eye-popping Johnson-esque numbers, but there is a pattern of consistency here of late. His last two Richmond starts have yielded eighth- and sixth-place finishes. On the short tracks in general this season the seven-time champion has fetched five Top 10s in the six races to-date with an 8.7 average finish. The No. 48 team has been better at this short track in recent seasons, and it's good enough to warrant some fantasy consideration this Saturday night.

Chase Elliott - Elliott does not have the kind of Richmond stats that inspire much confidence, but it's been what he's done there of late that bears the most scrutiny. Only two of his six-career starts at RIR have netted Top 10s, but both have come in his last two starts. Elliott finished 10th in this event one year ago, and he was blazing fast there in the spring and finished runner-up in April's Toyota Owners 400. That was certainly a memorable performance. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been dramatically improved on the short tracks in general in 2018. Elliott has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in six starts this season on the ovals one-mile or less in size. With the playoffs underway, we believe Elliott will be on his game in Saturday's Federated Auto Parts 400.

Clint Bowyer - While his chances of winning and advancing in the Chase are slim, Bowyer still has to be very optimistic about this Saturday night. The veteran driver has been racing with a real sense of urgency the last month or so, but his luck has been poor at times. Bowyer sports some pretty strong career Richmond stats. He's a two-time winner at the historic short track, and he has a strong 13.2 average finish for his career at the facility. The veteran driver cracks the Top 10 here at a very respectable 52-percent rate. Bowyer finished ninth here in the spring, but we would peg that as the floor. He has a much higher ceiling for this event since so much is on the line. With advancing in the Chase for the Cup on the line, the No. 14 team and Bowyer should step up their game considerably at Richmond.

Ryan Newman - Newman's recent hot spell has him riding a two-race Top-10 streak into Richmond, and he's been a Top-15 finisher four of his last five races. More good news for the No. 31 RCR team, Newman has Richmond International Raceway pegged. His 33-career starts at RIR have yielded one win, and 18 Top-10 (55-percent) finishes. Newman's most recent start at the oval in April was forgettable, but this driver and team are a world away from that performance right now. The short tracks have been more than kind to this veteran driver and team in 2018, and Newman should take full advantage in this very important race. Recent sixth- and 12th-place finishes at Loudon and Bristol should give this veteran driver a lot of confidence for this 400-mile battle.

Matt Kenseth - Kenseth gets another spot start in the Roush No. 6 Ford this weekend, and he again brings some low end fantasy value to weekly lineup leagues. This continued driver rotation will carry on through most of the Chase. Kenseth's stats at the ¾-mile oval aren't very impressive, but he is a two-time winner at this facility. The veteran driver won the last two poles at Richmond in 2017 when he was still racing for Joe Gibbs. He led over 250-combined laps in those last two Richmond starts in the No. 20 Toyota. We're not suggesting he'll be anywhere near that strong this weekend, but he could post a surprise Top-15 finish for the No. 6 team. Kenseth has made one other short track start this season, and it was a respectable 15th-place finish at Loudon, New Hampshire in July.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Alex Bowman - The driver of the No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy has had his ups-and-downs in 2018. There's no doubt about that. Bowman has labored to nine Top-10 finishes so far, so the inconsistency and predictability has been a problem for this driver and team in 2018. He rides a three-race Top-10 drought into Richmond this week, and that's definitely been the low point of Bowman's summer. Darlington, Indianapolis and Las Vegas have taken a toll on his psyche. Richmond has yielded only one Top-20 finish in five-career starts for this driver. Bowman's 18th-place finish here in April is among his worst short track performances of the season. It's best to pass up the No. 88 team this week, and play it safer in weekly lineup leagues.

Paul Menard - Menard has been a real useful driver on certain tracks this season, however, the short tracks have not been among them. The Wood Brothers Racing veteran has no Top 10s and only two Top 15s this season on the short track circuit. The average finish is coming in around a disappointing 22.8. Menard's last trip to Richmond is really indicative of his career numbers at this oval. He labored hard, but fell a lap down to the leaders to finish 24th in the Toyota Owners 400. That almost identically matches his career averages at this facility. One Top 10 in 23 starts and an average finish of 24.6. We don't expect to see Menard on the lead lap at the end of Saturday night, and nowhere near the leaders.

A.J. Allmendinger - While Allmendinger's surprising 14th-place finish at Las Vegas this past weekend was a nice lift for those who used him in fantasy leagues, we have to recommend not rolling the driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet this week. Short tracks have been brutal this season for the JTG Daugherty Racing driver. Allmendinger has only one Top 10 in six starts on the bull rings this season, and four finishes outside the Top 20 with two DNF's. His Richmond history is equally brutal. The veteran driver has three Top-10 finishes in 22 starts at this Virginia short track. The last of those came back in 2014. Allmendinger has only cracked the Top 20 once in his last six starts at RIR. His 27th-place finish in April's Toyota Owners 400 is pretty close for what we expect for this Saturday night.

Ryan Blaney - The driver of the No. 12 Penske Racing Ford has had a great season to this point. However, Blaney like any other driver will have his weaknesses too. Short track racing in general has been that bugaboo for the young star. Although Blaney has shown some improvement this season on the short track circuit, we still have to skeptical with so much on the line this Saturday night. His Richmond resume shows five-career starts and only one Top-20 finish. That was an 18th-place effort in this race one year ago. Blaney's April Richmond outing was just as subpar. He labored to a 22nd-place finish in this season's Toyota Owners 400. This young driver and team could prove us wrong Saturday night, but Blaney appears to be one of the top drivers to avoid this weekend.