Daytona 500 Fantasy Preview: The Great American Race

We're set to kick off another season of NASCAR racing, and to get things started we head to the historic Daytona International Speedway for the season-opener. The Daytona 500, also known as the Great American Race, kicks off each NASCAR Cup Series season and is by far the most prestigious event in the sport. The Daytona 500 is on par with the NFL's Super Bowl or Major League Baseball's World Series. It's unique in the fact that it opens the racing season rather than ends it. No other major sport can make that same claim. All eyes in the motorsports world will be focused on Daytona this weekend, because the winner of this race is not only making history, but he's also setting the pace for the season to come. 

If there's one thing that we can count on with Speedweeks at Daytona, it's a lot of practice laps. With all the practice sessions and qualifying races, the drivers really get to know what they can and can't do with their cars over the week of events. Once the drivers get familiar with the aero package and handling of their cars, we should see lots of three-wide, big pack racing in this season's Daytona 500. When we get down to the final 10 laps and crunch time, it will be interesting to see how the drivers mix it up looking for that perfect drafting partner. Some pushing and bump drafting are not out of the question, so we'll see some precariously close drafting, side-drafting and quickly shifting lanes of racing as drivers look for any open pavement they can find to get to the front. We'll see the pack racing, and unsettled cars that rattles nerves for 475 miles, and then a 25-mile wild sprint to the finish which will have the top contenders climbing over one-another to get to the checkered flag first. As we saw in last season's Daytona 500 finish with William Byron sneaking through a big last-lap crash among the leaders, it can make for some pretty big fireworks coming to the checkered flag on that last lap. 

This will be our first points race since the teams loaded up at Phoenix last November, and crowned Kyle Larson the NASCAR Cup Series champion. While superspeedway racing isn't by itself completely indicative of what we can expect for the entire season, it does give us a good preview of who has the horsepower, handling and teamwork flowing right out of the gate. We expect most of the teams that ended the 2025 season on a high note to continue their momentum with the short off-season and right into the Daytona 500. The teams of Joe Gibbs Racing would be a good example of this point.  Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe put together good streaks of consistency as the season closed last November. Those two drivers combined for three victories, nine Top-5 and 15 Top-10 finishes over the last 10 races of last season. Not to be outdone, the duo of Penske Racing (Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano), grabbed two victories, nine Top-5 and 11 Top-10 finishes over those final 10 events. We expect those teams to come running out of the blocks this February. In the opposite sense, some of the drivers that struggled through the playoffs last fall have a lot to prove during Speedweeks. Drivers like Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric and Kyle Busch had better hit the ground running at Daytona, or their season-ending slumps are likely to continue well into 2026.

Before we dive into the driver picks, let's take a minute to look at the loop statistics for Daytona International Speedway. The loop stats are the numbers from NASCAR's electronic timing and scoring from past races. They can track virtually any statistic possible in auto racing. For the purpose of our examination, we've chosen to look at average finish, quality passes, fastest laps, laps led, laps inside the Top 15 and the driver rating derived from those statistics. These stats are pretty indicative of the best performing drivers at a particular oval. From these and other numbers NASCAR derives the driver rating. From an overall performance standpoint, it's a great measure of track specific performance. Here are the loop stats for the last 42 races at Daytona International Speedway.

In this race one year ago, we crowned William Byron a Daytona 500 victor for the second year in a row. There were an exciting 56 lead changes among 15 different drivers. Those figures are pretty consistent when compared to the previous three Daytona 500's, however, the 56 lead changes would be the most in a Daytona 500 since 2011. Those were the days of the tandem draft on superspeedways. We would attribute the increase in battling at the front to the current car and current aerodynamic package. Teams are pretty comfortable with the current car and it shows in these superspeedway races. There were eight caution flags total, with six for accidents/debris which is right in line with recent Daytona races. When the dust settled, we saw Byron come through the storm of the last lap from seventh-place at the white flag to first-place at the checkers. The No. 24 Chevrolet would be running first-place when a big wreck would break out among the leaders. Byron would scoot through unscathed and claim his second-consecutive Daytona 500 crown.  

It would be Byron's 14th-career win, third at Daytona, and his second Daytona 500 victory. It capped one of the most thrilling races of the entire season. How can we top that in 2026? Considering that NASCAR returned to Daytona last August and held a race that was 100 miles shorter, but had an impressive 44 total lead changes, we could be poised for major thrills. It might be difficult to replicate that dramatic finish from last season's Daytona 500, but the entertainment factor should be off the charts. As the above electronic scoring statistics show, we have a handful of drivers from many different stables that have a nose for the front at the Daytona oval. We'll outline the usual suspects at this oval as well as a few drivers who may surprise on Sunday and give you the edge that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues for the season-opening Daytona 500.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – The two-time Daytona winner is also our last Daytona International Speedway victor. Blaney marched to the win in last August's Coke Zero Sugar 400 in strong fashion. It would be the Penske Racing star's fifth-career win on a superspeedway oval and underscoring just how skilled Blaney is in this type of racing. In addition to his Daytona wins, Blaney has also finished runner-up twice in his career here so he's been very close to even more wins at this historic track. The driver of the No. 12 Ford has also a Daytona Duel qualifying race win to his credit, so that's just another accolade in his Daytona resume. Blaney wants to make a statement to start the 2026 season, so another Daytona 500 win is a big goal for this driver and team.       

William Byron – The winner of the last two Daytona 500's returns to the scene to defend his race win of one season ago. Byron is also a three-time winner at the historic Florida oval with his fall victory here in 2020. Now with three Daytona wins in his resume, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has elevated his superspeedway racing game over the past three seasons. Byron has two wins, one runner-up finish, five Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes in his last 10-combined starts between Daytona and Talladega. That consistency and high conversion rate has led to a dazzling 9.6 average finish over that span on these high-risk ovals. The Hendrick Motorsports star has to be seen as the man to beat in this installment of the Great American Race.

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner also grabbed a superspeedway victory at Talladega last spring. The driver of the No. 2 Ford also qualified on the outside of the first row in last year's Daytona 500 and marched to a strong eighth-place finish. Cindric is now a two-time winner on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega and starting to etch out a good reputation. The Penske Racing driver has led over 150 laps in his last 10 superspeedway events and that's a lot of time spent racing up front. A fast car is often the common denominator in this style of racing and Cindric's 5.9 average start in his last 10 Daytona and Talladega events show that the No. 2 Ford has had dominant speed. The fact that he has one win and three runner-up finishes in his last four Duels also underscores his ability at Daytona.  

Joey Logano – Logano has had tough luck finishing these superspeedway races the last couple seasons. However, the speed of his No. 22 Ford has not been in question at all. With over 300 laps led in his last 10 Daytona/Talladega events, Logano is among the more dominant performers. During that same span, the Penske Racing star has registered an impressive 6.6 average start on these tracks. Indeed, the speed to win has been present with this driver and team. Logano just needs to improve his luck in 2026. As a one-time Daytona winner and three-time Talladega winner, the veteran driver has nothing to prove. If the breaks go Logano's way, he could rack up a second-career Daytona win.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chris Buescher – The driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang had a bit of an up-and-down season last year on the big ovals, but he was in great form on the Daytona oval. Buescher logged 10th- and seventh-place finishes in the two Daytona events of last year. That built on an already impressive resume at Daytona International Speedway. The Rough Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has one win, five Top-5 and 10 Top-10 finishes in his 20-career starts at the historic oval. Buescher enters this Daytona 500 on a three-race Daytona Top-10 streak. With a 50-percent career Top-10 rate at such a high stakes and hazardous track, the veteran driver has managed a measure of consistency performing here. Buescher is a good bet to extend his current Daytona Top-10 streak this Sunday.

Alex Bowman – Since moving to Hendrick Motorsports, Bowman has solved a lot of he early-career struggles he had at Daytona. The veteran driver has logged Top 10's in four of his past six starts at Daytona International Speedway (67-percent) and that's a rate well above his career average Top-10 rate of 37-percent. The No. 48 Chevrolet has been fast in all those years and Bowman has grabbed two pole positions, five outside poles and made his life easier at Daytona with good starting track position. Over the past 10 events of competition at both Talladega and Daytona, he's managed two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes for a reasonably strong 15.1 average finish over the span. That 50-percent Top-10 rate in superspeedway racing is always an eye-catching statistic.

Christopher Bell – Bell had a big strikeout rate (DNFs) in his early career on these big ovals, but he's turned it to more consistency in recent seasons. A pair of third-place finishes at Daytona in 2024 seemed to signal the reversal. Since then, Bell has been a 50-percent Top-10 finisher on the ovals of Talladega and Daytona. The Joe Gibbs Racing star grabbed an eighth-place finish in the last superspeedway race of last season at Talladega. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has led 70-combined laps in just his last two superspeedway events and that's a lot of racing and battling up front. Bell has never won a Daytona race, but he's finished inside the Top 5 on three occasions. He should have good speed and a high fantasy racing ceiling for the season-opener at Daytona.         

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe made a name for himself on the superspeedway tracks last season. He qualified on the pole position for the Daytona 500 and finished a brilliant fourth-place in last year's Great American Race. Briscoe also sat on the outside pole at Talladega last October and grabbed his first-ever superspeedway win in the YellaWood 500. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has manufactured a reasonable 15.2 average finish over his last 10 superspeedway starts. The big change is that when Briscoe was racing for Stewart-Haas he had Top-10 potential on these big tracks, but now he has race-winning potential with Gibbs. Now with two Top 10's in his last four Daytona starts we have to take Briscoe much more seriously in these Daytona races.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has never won at Daytona International Speedway, but he does own three pole positions and two runner-up finishes at the historic oval. While Elliott's 30-percent Top-10 rate here leaves some to be desired, he has shown the ability to lead laps and race among the leaders in these races. His last Top 5 at the oval came in 2023 and he's led nearly 200 laps for his career at Daytona. The last two seasons have been a bit up-and-down in terms of superspeedway performance, but he's still managed a 40-percent Top-10 rate at both Daytona and Talladega in his last 10 starts. When we consider Elliott's two Talladega victories, we're reminded that he's a steady performer in this style of racing.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is a one-time Daytona winner and six-time Talladega winner. He's one of the most prolific superspeedway performers of the past 15 years. As his age has advanced, the owner/driver has maintained that high level of performance. In just the past 10 superspeedway starts alone Keselowski has nabbed three runner-up finishes and five Top 10's on the superspeedway tracks. While his Talladega excellence has outweighed his Daytona achievements by a bit, he's still a top performer at the Florida oval. He finished runner-up at Daytona as recently as 2023. Keselowski has forged Top 10's in two of his last five Daytona starts which is well above his career rate of 24-percent. He should be a steady performer in the Daytona 500. 

Kyle Busch – Perhaps the biggest risk/reward driver in the field this weekend is Busch in the No. 8 Chevrolet. He's a one-time winner at Daytona, but he's never won the Daytona 500. Busch's history at this oval is an uneven affair of brilliant finishes, and devastating DNF's. However, speed has never been an issue. Two seasons ago Busch grabbed a strong runner-up finish in the late-fall race at Daytona. That's one of five runner-up finishes he's collected at Daytona in his 41-career starts. The Richard Childress Racing veteran is a three-time superspeedway winner and he's cracked the Top 10 at Daytona twice in his last five starts at the track. He's a very intriguing fantasy racing prospect for this weekend's season-opener.    

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has had no trouble at all "closing" these races on big ovals the last two years. He grabbed two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in the last eight events between Daytona and Talladega. Wallace just seems to have a nose for the front in these superspeedway events. The career 14.4 average finish at Daytona International Speedway speaks volumes of this fact. The 23XI Racing driver's 2021 victory at Talladega underscores how dangerous Wallace can be in this form of stock car racing, and his three runner-up and five Top-5 finishes at Daytona are an incredible statement on his abilities in superspeedway racing. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota is a good sleeper candidate for Sunday's Daytona 500.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The 2023 Daytona 500 winner is also the winner of the YellaWood 500 at Talladega in the fall of 2024. Stenhouse has four-career Cup Series victories, and all four of them have come on the tracks of Daytona and Talladega. Two of them are at Daytona alone. If Stenhouse can avoid the multi-car crashes and last to the end, he's capable of big things. His four-career Daytona Top-10 finishes are not overly impressive, but his 150 laps led at this track tell the untold story. This driver and team do a lot of racing up front in these Daytona events. Stenhouse is going to find his way into the occasional multi-car accident at this track, which is almost certain. However, if the driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet is racing among the leaders in the closing laps, he's quite a dangerous competitor to be matched against.   

Erik Jones – The deep sleeper of the week is Jones and his No. 43 Legacy Motor Club entry. The veteran driver is sneaky good on the superspeedway tracks. Jones nabbed 12th- and fifth-place finishes in his two Daytona starts last season. The journeyman driver is a one-time winner at Daytona (2018) and he posts a reasonable 28-percent Top-10 rate at the historic oval. Jones has also collected four Top-10 finishes in his last five Duel qualifying races. It's clear that he understands the aspects of the draft and drafting partners. Jones also has an eye-opening 44-percent Top-10 rate at the big oval in Talladega. Clearly, he is a driver to not be underestimated in this style of racing.             

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – He's been a tough-luck driver over the past three seasons on the big ovals, but you cannot deny his career-long exploits in this form of stock car racing. You will not find a more decorated or excellent superspeedway driver in the field. Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 winner and he's won twice at the similar oval in Talladega. He's also a three-time winner of the Daytona Duels. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is one of the more experienced and knowledgeable drivers in the field in superspeedway racing. However, something has changed the last few seasons. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver does not lead the laps on these ovals like he used to and his 20-percent Top-10 rate in his last 10 superspeedway starts paint a stark picture. Hamlin didn't crack the Top 20 in a single superspeedway start last season and he last cracked the Top 10 at Daytona way back in 2021.

Kyle Larson – Larson may be one of the best drivers in the sport, but superspeedway racing really never has been his cup of tea. The Hendrick Motorsports star did post two Top 10's last season on the big ovals but that has been the outlier for his career. In 23-Daytona starts the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has only managed six Top 10's (26-percent) and his 21.2 average finish is below fantasy expectations. He's led a mere 39 laps in those 23 starts so racing up front has not really been Larson's strength in these races. Larson's start in last season's Daytona 500 netted a 20th-place finish and his last superspeedway start at Talladega last fall earned a subpar 26th-place finish.

Ryan Preece – Despite winning this season's Cookout Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium, we have to give the fantasy racing downgrade to Preece this week at Daytona. He's ended up on his roof lid more than once at this track, so that's where we need to take the luck factor into account. The driver of the No. 60 Ford hasn't had much good luck in his Daytona resume. Preece has posted just three Top 10's in 12-career Daytona starts (25-percent) compared to the seven DNF's his stacked up at this track thanks to being the victim of several multi-car crashes. It's inflated his average finish at Daytona to 24.3. He's had similar poor luck at the oval in Talladega as well. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran last cracked the Top 10 at Daytona way back in 2021.   

Josh Berry – Despite Wood Brothers Racing's historical excellence in superspeedway racing, Berry has not carried that same level of performance forward since joining the team. The veteran driver has just one Top 10 in five Daytona starts (20-percent) and just one Top 10 in his last nine superspeedway starts combined (11-percent). Berry's average finish on these ovals stand at an undesirable 25.6. Despite leading 27 laps at Talladega last fall, the driver of the No. 21 Ford would crash out and DNF well before the end of that race. That's been a major part of his problem. Berry has four DNF's in his last six starts between Daytona and Talladega and that's put a major drag on his level of performance.