Ambetter Health 400 Preview: New Slot for Atlanta

This weekend NASCAR pulls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the first of two visits in the 2024 season. The lightning-fast intermediate oval will host the Ambetter Health 400 this Sunday afternoon. This event moves up in the schedule a few weeks from its former mid-March slot and into race number two of the season, replacing the now defunct Auto Club Speedway. Racing at the newly reconfigured Atlanta is somewhat similar to the just-completed Daytona 500. This track produces high speeds and lots of side-by-side racing action. In addition, the Atlanta oval underwent a big repaving and redesign project during the off-season of 2021. The asphalt at Atlanta had not been repaved since 1997, making it the oldest surface that NASCAR competed on. In addition, the banking was given a radical redesign. The former 24-degree corner banking was increased to a whopping 28-degrees while keeping the banking on the straights at a modest five-degrees. The racing groove was also narrowed from 55 to 40 feet, coupling the higher speeds in the turns with less room to move about. Atlanta is now truly like no other intermediate oval on the NASCAR circuit. The racing at Atlanta the last couple seasons has resembled more of the action that we see on the larger, superspeedway ovals like Daytona and Talladega. Aerodynamics, drafting and moving through the field with momentum are now the standard characteristics of Atlanta, and all that action packed into a 1.5-mile oval. 

The intermediate oval is the most frequent type of track found on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This event will likely be a big outlier thanks to the radically new configuration of Atlanta Motor Speedway and what we witnessed here the last two seasons. However, historical data will still serve a somewhat useful purpose. It will be good to acquaint ourselves with which drivers have had success at Atlanta in the past, so that we may get a good idea of who could adapt quickly and succeed going forward. Here are the loop stats for the last 28 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

With William Byron's victory at Atlanta last summer, Chevrolet charged to its third victory in the last four races at the "new" Atlanta oval and Byron came away as a second-time Atlanta victor on the new configuration of the track. The NASCAR Cup Series raced earlier last season (this event one year ago) at AMS and Joey Logano pulled off a thrilling victory over Brad Keselowski, and gave Ford their first win on the "new". That performance broke Chevrolet's brief string of dominance at the track and confirmed that the blue oval could get it done at this facility. With the new configuration, it will be interesting to see if Chevrolet can keep their current success going at the Georgia speedway or if Toyota can pull off the upset.

Kyle Busch was our last Atlanta victor for Toyota (2013). Now that he's moved on to a Chevrolet team last season, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick would seem best positioned to upset Ford and Chevrolet to put the Toyota brand back in victory lane at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Hamlin is a one-time Atlanta winner and both Bell and Reddick challenged for the win and cracked the Top 5 in this event one year ago. If superspeedway racing has shown us anything, it's that anything can and will happen. Hamlin, Bell, Reddick and their Toyota teammates will have a lot to prove on the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway. Since this race will be a bit more challenging to forecast, and historical data is only marginally helpful, we're going to have to examine the last four races on Atlanta Motor Speedway very closely as well as look back to the Daytona 500. Right now current hot streaks may play the biggest role in determining who has success on this higher-banked and repaved Atlanta oval. We'll give you a run down of the drivers you need this Sunday afternoon at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a few who could surprise in the Ambetter Health 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – After winning the first race on the new configuration of this track, Byron returned in the summer of last season and won again at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He's now a two-time winner on this current configuration of AMS. With 171 laps led during this four-race span, the Hendrick Motorsports star is clearly the most successful driver at the new Atlanta. Since the track has been reconfigured, it behaves more like a superspeedway these days. That makes these Atlanta events a bit treacherous and filled with hazards. Byron has been rolled up in a couple of those incidents in his two other Atlanta Motor Speedway starts, sandwiched in between the two victories. However, the No. 24 Chevrolet team seems to be very dialed into this current track configuration.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is one of the most successful superspeedway drivers of the past few seasons, so that makes him a natural selection among the contenders at Atlanta. His four prior starts since the track was redone have netted one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes and a total of 42 laps led. The average finish stands at a robust 9.5. The Penske Racing star has been battling among the leaders in all these events since the track was reconfigured. Blaney has also qualified extremely well during this four-race span, garnering a miniscule 3.3 average start. That excellence in qualifying certainly helps a good bit when it comes to contending for wins here and Top-10 finishes. The reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion likes racing at Atlanta Motor Speedway and that is clearly illustrated in the loop stats in the table above.   

Joey Logano – The winner of this event one year ago returns to Atlanta to defend his race crown this weekend. Logano won the pole, led a dominating 140 laps and captured the win in last season's Ambetter Health 400. The reconfiguration led to his first-career victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and it boosted his average finish to 13.3 at AMS since the reconfiguration. Logano's prowess at superspeedway racing is well known and his Daytona and Talladega victories attest to this fact. Coming off a strong performance but poor finish in the Daytona 500, it's an easy call to place this driver and team among the top contenders for the Ambetter Health 400. Logano will battle among the leaders and contend for the win Sunday afternoon at the Georgia speedway.

Chase Elliott – Elliott's home state track has been very generous to him since the rework of the oval. He captured the victory from the pole in the summer event at Atlanta and he grabbed a sixth-place finish in the spring of 2022 race. The 125 combined laps led at Atlanta Motor Speedway since the reconfiguration simply cannot be ignored. Elliott missed this event one year ago due to the snowboarding accident and leg injury. However, he'll be eager to revive his success at this track and in front of his home state crowd. The 6.7 average finish that Elliott and the No. 9 team boasts since the reconfiguration is another statistic that is difficult to ignore. The Hendrick Motorsports start has been in the running to win these Atlanta races and we don't see that changing ahead of Sunday's Ambetter Health 400.       

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The two-time Atlanta winner (2017 & 2019) liked the old configuration of this speedway, but he's also been warming up to the new layout as well. Keselowski didn't look very sharp in his first two starts on the track, but in 2023 he led 66 combined laps in the two Atlanta races and nabbed second- and sixth-place finishes. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford was very impressive indeed. Those performances added to what was already a rich history at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Keselowski's 11-career Top-10 finishes here stand at a robust 61-percent rate and the average finish comes in at a strong 13.9. Now that Atlanta Motor Speedway races more like a superspeedway oval, it's definitely to his liking.  

Ross Chastain – Chastain wasn't overly impressive at AMS last season, but in 2022 he made two great starts on the new configuration of Atlanta. The Trackhouse Racing veteran led 74 laps in those two events and snatched a pair of runner-up finishes. He didn't appear to have that type of speed in last season's Atlanta races, but we believe Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team will revert to prior form at this track in 2024. This driver and team grabbed one win (Nashville) and five Top 10's last season on intermediate ovals, so Chastain is well able to pick up his performance Sunday at Atlanta. Crew Chief, Phil Surgen, still has his notes from those two outings in 2022 at AMS, so recreating that success shouldn't take much to accomplish.       

Daniel Suarez – Suarez led 13 laps and finished a brilliant fourth-place two seasons ago when NASCAR unveiled the new configuration of Atlanta, and it's been a love affair ever since with this driver and team. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has also nabbed two more Top-10 finishes at AMS since that first one and the last was a stellar performance. Suarez didn't qualify so well last July, staring 26th on the grid. However, he would drive purposely and carefully to a brilliant runner-up finish in the Quaker State 400. The average finish across his last four Atlanta Motor Speedway starts is a stunning 10.3. We don't typically think of Suarez and the No. 99 team when it comes to superspeedway racing, but Atlanta realistically falls somewhere in between superspeedway and intermediate oval. Whatever you classify it, Suarez seems to really like it.  

Kyle Busch – On the old configuration of Atlanta, Busch was a two-time winner and respectable 46-percent Top-10 finisher. When the changes took place in the 2022 season, Busch had some trouble adjusting to the new banking and narrow grooves. However, Busch would reap the benefits of that transition last year. The Richard Childress Racing star would grab 10th- and fifth-place finishes at AMS last season. The drafting and momentum runs are something that Busch is pretty comfortable with as he showed on superspeedways last season as well. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet really slots in that "outside contender/solid play" category in this style of racing. As the two-year-old pavement at AMS continues to age, the racing here will only get better and so will Busch.   

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Atlanta & solid upside

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a one-time winner on the old configuration of Atlanta Motor Speedway and he's nabbed 10 Top-10 finishes over the years at the mid-Georgia oval. Despite his prowess in superspeedway racing, Hamlin has been a little slow to adapt to the higher banking of Atlanta. However, the Joe Gibbs Racing star began to show some signs of improvement in this even one year ago. Hamlin piloted the No. 11 Toyota to 14 laps led and a strong sixth-place finish in last season's Ambetter Health 400. He would return later in the season and score a steady Top-15 finish in the Quaker State 400. This driver and team haven't displayed the excellence that Hamlin has at Daytona and Talladega, but they're quickly improving at the new Atlanta.

Christopher Bell – Much like Denny Hamlin, it's taken Bell some races to make the transition to the new layout of the Atlanta oval. He led 16 laps in the track's new configuration debut in 2022, but ran into trouble and finished a distant 23rd-place. Bell would only be marginally better in his second start at AMS. However, the driver of the No. 20 Toyota would really take off in this event one year ago. Bell qualified well (10th-place) and led 6 laps en route to an impressive third-place finish in last season's Ambetter Health 400. This young driver's career numbers at Atlanta Motor Speedway aren't very inspiring (29-percent Top-10 rate), however, it appears the higher banking and narrower groove that mimics a superspeedway is to Bell's liking. He should be a steady fantasy racing producer in the Ambetter Health 400.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick's strength isn't superspeedway racing, so we've slotted him the sleepers list this week for Atlanta. That said, he has qualified well here since the reconfiguration (9.3 average start) and he's led 18 total laps. The 23XI Racing youngster would get collected in multi-car crashes his first two starts on the new Atlanta, but Reddick would come back to Georgia last March and grab a very impressive fifth-place finish in last season's Ambetter Health 400. This driver and team would show good speed this past weekend at Daytona, qualifying third and racing among the leaders early, before being rolled up in the late-race crash that would eventually take Reddick out. He should have the speed to impress once again at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Austin Cindric – Superspeedway Racing has always been a big part of Cindric's success. From his Daytona 500 victory to his Talladega Top-5 finish last October, the Penske Racing youngster seems to have a nose for the pack/drafting style of racing. Atlanta has mostly become this style of racing since the reconfiguration. Cindric has nabbed third-, 11th- and 12th-place finishes to go along with 22 laps led since crashing out of his first start at the new Atlanta two seasons ago. The driver of the No. 2 Ford looked very strong in the Daytona 500 this past weekend, qualifying sixth and leading 13 laps before the trouble late in the race would push him back to a 22nd-place finish. Cindric should be motivated for a good Atlanta outing this Sunday.

Erik Jones – After scoring a strong eighth-place finish in the Great American Race to kick off the season, Jones comes to Atlanta to keep things rolling this Sunday. The Legacy Motor Club driver should do just that given his success at AMS since the reconfiguration. The driver of the No. 43 Toyota has 14th-, fourth-, eighth- and 11th-place finishes at Atlanta Motor Speedway since the revamp. The average finish stands at an eye-opening 9.3 for Jones and his team. Considering that he is coming off a good finish at Daytona and visiting a track this week that he's very comfortable with, Jones should stay locked in for the Ambetter Health 400.

Corey Lajoie – Superspeedway racing is Lajoie's best craft. Six of his eight-career Top-10 finishes have come on superspeedway ovals, including his fourth-place finish in this past week's Daytona 500. The Spire Motorsports veteran has grabbed a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last four Atlanta starts for a pretty steady 15.3 average finish. Lajoie's Atlanta qualifying hasn't been the greatest (30.5 average start) but that has not prevented him from driving through the field and grabbing quality finishes. He and the No. 7 Spire team have some momentum to start this season and it seems very opportunistic that the schedule offers up Atlanta right on the heels of Daytona.   

Slow Down – Drivers to Avoid This Week

Kyle Larson – The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet escaped the big one at Daytona and rode to a steady 11th-place finish in the Daytona 500 last weekend. Considering that he led 7 laps and his shaky history with superspeedway racing, that wasn't half bad. Now the series comes to Atlanta Motor Speedway for similar racing action, but on a considerably smaller oval. Larson has never really been that fond of AMS and especially after the reconfiguration. His 33-percent Top-10 rate at this track only went lower after his 30th-, 13th-, 31st- and 36th-place finishes the last two seasons. Larson's average finish at Atlanta has ballooned to 17.8 as a result. In weekly lineup and salary cap leagues it's best to pass on this driver and team this week.  

Chase Briscoe – After Briscoe's 10th-place finish at Daytona this past weekend, we're going to fade him for the Atlanta follow up. The Stewart Haas Racing youngster has displayed skill at superspeedway racing, but that's been more on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega. Briscoe has yet to make an impression on the newly configured Atlanta Motor Speedway. His four prior starts have netted just one Top-15 finish despite qualifying well in those four races. The 19.3 average finish across the span doesn't measure up to our expectations for a fantasy racing endorsement. Briscoe hasn't crashed out of any of these recent Atlanta races, but he has found it difficult to hold onto the leaders and be competitive.

Austin Dillon – Coming off a forgettable 2023 campaign, Dillon did not get the start on 2024 he would have liked last weekend. The driver of the RCR No. 3 Chevrolet would get involved in one of the early race accidents and limp to a distant 37th-place finish in the Daytona 500. Dillon will look to hit the reset button this week at Atlanta Motor Speedway, but it will be difficult making headway. His four starts on the new layout have netted finishes of 35th-, 35th-, 20th- and 21st-place. The 27.8 average finish across the span is one of the worst among full-time drivers during that span. Difficulty with qualifying, racing deep in the pack and encountering trouble with accidents have been his chief problems. Dillon is simply to inconsistent at this oval to be worthy of fantasy consideration this Sunday.

Alex Bowman – After a runner-up finish in the season-opening Daytona 500, we are going to be a bit reserved about Bowman's follow up effort at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The mid-Georgia oval only yields a 27-percent Top-10 rate for Bowman and his average start of 19.5 is less than desirable. Since the revamp two seasons ago, the Hendrick Motorsports veteran hasn't improved at Atlanta. He has finishes of 10th-, 32nd-, 14th- and 26th-place for a subpar 20.5 average finish. The lack of laps led is immediately noticeable for a driver who typically leads laps on superspeedway tracks. Bowman could prove us wrong on this pick, but we feel that he carries much more risk than some more attractive and experienced drivers.