This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC London card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down lineup strategy and betting predictions for the entire event.
Claudio Silva (14-3-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (19-4-1, 2NC)
Claudio Silva - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Nicolas Dalby - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This likely ends up being one of the slower fights on the card. Dalby tends to fight defensively and patiently, forcing fighters to fight at his pace. He will look to keep this fight on the feet and strike from range. On the other hand, Silva should be looking to work inside the pocket, looking for takedowns. Dalby is the favorite for his solid technical work, but if he makes a mistake, Silva should be able to jump it. I do not expect a high score from either guy and would only target them in GPP contests.
UFC London Pick: Dalby
Mandy Bohm (7-1-0, 1NC) v. Victoria Leonardo (8-5-0)
Mandy Bohm - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
Victoria Leonardo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a scrappy fight between two ladies that have struggled in their UFC starts. Bohm will likely look to up her volume and keep this fight on the feet. Leonardo should push the pressure and look to get the fight on the mat, where she has a considerable advantage. I have not seen enough from Bohm to think she deserves to be the favorite. Leo has fought better competition and is my pick to win. An optimal score for GPP is unlikely, but she should be solid for cash games.
UFC London Pick: Leonardo
Jai Herbert (11-4-0) v. Kyle Nelson (13-4-0)
Jai Herbert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Kyle Nelson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Nelson has not fought in nearly two years and has struggled in his UFC tenure, including two knockouts. Aside from a lucky shot or submission, I do not see how Nelson wins this fight. Herbert lost his fast fight but looked impressive until he was knocked out. He has massive power, and I expect him to land something big early. I love him for cash and GPP contests.
UFC London Pick: Herbert
Muhammad Mokaev (7-0-0, 1NC) v. Charles Johnson (11-2-0)
Muhammad Mokaev - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Charles Johnson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Mokaev is a 21-year-old prospect with a bright future. He is an elite grappler and finisher, exciting as they come. Johnson is making his UFC debut but has had plenty of success as a former LFA champion. He is solid all-around, but I think Mokaev will be too much for him. Mokaev makes a solid play for cash and GPP contests.
UFC London Pick: Mokaev
Makwan Amirkhani (17-7-0) v. Jonathan Pearce (12-4-0)
Makwan Amirkhani - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
Jonathan Pearce - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect most of this fight to take place on the mat, as both guys prefer to fight there. Pearce will likely be the one forcing takedowns and clinch work against the cage. He is the stronger wrestler and should have better control on the mat. Amirkhani is a dangerous grappler and could lock on to a guillotine or front choke at any point in this fight, making him a great GPP play. Pearce is the better overall fighter with the potential for a huge score, making him solid in cash and GPP contests.
UFC London Pick: Pearce
Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0) v. Charles Rosa (14-7-0)
Nathaniel Wood - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 17 wins
Charles Rosa - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Wood is making his featherweight debut against Rosa. He is easily far more well-rounded and continues to improve in each fight. Rosa is still a tough fight, but his better days are in the past, and he does not have much chance of winning here. Wood should dominate and is safe for cash and GPP contests.
UFC London Pick: Wood
Marc Diakiese (15-5-0) v. Damir Hadzovic (14-6-0)
Marc Diakiese - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 15 wins
Damir Hadzovic - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Diakiese is a strong kickboxer with solid takedowns and wrestling. Hadzovic throws more volume and will be the better grappler. I expect this fight to play out on the feet for most, if not all, of the fight. The odds for this fight seem way off, with Diakiese being a heavy favorite. However, they should be much closer to even, and I lean toward Hadzovic. I would only use either guy in GPP contests.
UFC London Pick: Hadzovic
Mason Jones (11-1-0, 1NC) v. L'udovit Klein (18-4-0)
Mason Jones - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
L'udovit Klein - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Potential Fight of the Night honors in this one. Jones is a high-volume striker with solid wrestling. Klein is a finisher with excellent kickboxing and grappling. There is a good chance this fight does not see the bell. Either guy could score a finish, but Jones is likelier to win a decision with volume and takedowns. He makes a solid play for cash and GPP contests. Klein is a solid dart throw for GPP as well.
UFC London Pick: Jones
Paul Craig (16-4-1) v. Volkan Oezdemir (17-6-0)
Paul Craig - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
Volkan Oezdemir - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Craig is always a legitimate threat to submit someone and will need to get this fight to the mat early. Oezedmir has massive power in his hands and will be looking to keep this on the feet. A finish is likely in this one, and it could come from either guy. Oezedmir has solid takedown defense and likely catches Craig as he walks in. He makes a solid play for cash and GPP, while Craig makes a strong play in large tournaments.
UFC London Pick: Oezdemir
Molly McCann (12-4-0) v. Hannah Goldy (6-2-0)
Molly McCann - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 12 wins
Hannah Goldy - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: McCann should be the better fighter anywhere the fight goes. She throws more volume and is the better wrestler. Goldy could find a surprise submission, but I think it is the only way she wins this one. McCann is safe for cash, but without a finish, she likely does not hit optimal for GPP.
UFC London Pick: McCann
Nikita Krylov (27-9-0) v. Alexander Gustafsson (18-7-0)
Nikita Krylov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 26 finishes in 27 wins
Alexander Gustafsson - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 14 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: After retiring and unretiring more than once, I have little confidence in Gustafsson's abilities. He was also on a three-fight skid after his most recent fight two years ago. On the other hand, Krylov is a crafty finisher, and I expect him to get in a groove and finish this early. He should be better everywhere the fight goes, and I love him for cash and GPP contests.
UFC London Pick: Krylov
Paddy Pimblett (18-3-0) v. Jordan Leavitt (10-1-0)
Paddy Pimblett - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 18 wins
Jordan Leavitt - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Pimblett should be better everywhere this fight goes. He has slightly wild but excellent striking, considerable power and elite grappling. Leavitt has little striking but is a dangerous submission specialist and can find chokes in the craziest ways. However, that is likely his only path to victory. Pimblett is an excellent play this week and is great for cash and GPP.
UFC London Pick: Pimblett
Jack Hermansson (22-7-0) v. Chris Curtis (29-8-0)
Jack Hermansson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
Chris Curtis - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Curtis has been phenomenal in three UFC fights and gets another step up in competition in Hermansson. He will have the power advantage and should win if this stays on the feet. Hermansson will have a considerable advantage if he can get this fight to the mat, but Curtis has yet to be taken down in any fight. You could make a case for either guy in cash games, given the price points. Both guys make great GPP options.
UFC London Pick: Curtis
Curtis Blaydes (16-3-0, 1NC) v. Tom Aspinall (12-2-0)
Curtis Blaydes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Tom Aspinall - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Absolute banger alert. These are two of the world's top heavyweights, which could go either way. Blaydes should look to get Aspinall on the mat in top control and rain down his nasty elbows. On the other hand, Aspinall will be at a significant advantage and should look to light Blaydes up with volume and power on the feet. This fight will come down to who can control who, and I like Aspinall to come in fast and knock Blaydes out. I like Aspinall for cash and GPP contests. Blaydes is a solid GPP play for his finishing ability as well.
UFC London Pick: Aspinall
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
