This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The trilogy will be completed Saturday in Las Vegas, with Conor McGregor returning in front of a live crowd in the U.S. for the first time since the pandemic.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $1M 264 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
Main Event - Lightweight
Dustin Poirier (27-6-0, 1NC) v. Conor McGregor (22-5-0)
DK Salaries: Poirier ($8,100), McGregor ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Poirier (-120), McGregor (+100)
Odds to Finish: -325
This fight might not be for a belt, but the return of McGregor combined with this being the deciding bout of the trilogy between these two should result in a high buy rate for the company.
Both Poirier and McGregor have been on the sidelines since Dustin won their most recent bout this past January via second-round knockout. The first fight between the two -- which McGregor won via first-round knockout -- happened in 2014. I didn't consider that result for a second when breaking down the second bout. Both of these men have evolved so much since then that I didn't think it had any predictive value whatsoever. However, what happened this past January may provide a glimpse of what is to come on Saturday.
Conor looked strong in the first round of the most recent bout before Dustin came out and obliterated him with leg kicks in Round 2. They completely changed the course of the fight and Poirier took full advantage of the opportunity. McGregor had all sorts of difficulty from then on, struggling with his durability, and thus, his ability to land offensively. I'm certain Conor's coach John Kavanaugh and the rest of his team recognize that and will attempt to implement a game plan to remove, or at least limit, that weapon from Poirier's arsenal. It's easier said that done.
Poirier doesn't get enough credit for the damage he has done in the past four-plus years. This is a guy who is 7-1 (1NC) over that span, with victories over the likes of McGregor, Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje and Dan Hooker, and the lone loss coming against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Dustin is an unquestioned top-tier fighter by anyone's definition, and he doesn't appear to be slowing down in the least at age 32.
This fight is as close as the DK salaries and Vegas odds would lead you to believe. I think McGregor is the much better pure technical striker, while Poirier has more one-punch stopping power and more ways to win.
Perhaps I'm overstating it a bit, but I was extremely encouraged by Conor's performance in the last fight before Dustin began landing all those leg kicks. I'm going to bet on Kavanaugh and crew coming up with a way to limit those shots and thus am taking Conor to win a tight decision. That being said, as is always the case when McGregor fights, it's a good idea to pivot to his opponent on DraftKings simply because Conor is always among the highest-owned fighters given the fact he is by far the most popular fighter in the sport.
THE PICK: McGregor
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Gilbert Burns (19-4-0) v. Stephen Thompson (16-4-1)
DK Salaries: Burns ($7,700), Thompson ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Burns (+130), Thompson (-155)
Odds to Finish: +110
Burns is in need of a rebound following his third-round knockout loss at the hands of UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman this past February. Gilbert had won six fights in a row prior and was more than deserving of his title opportunity. He actually had Usman in all sorts of trouble in the early going, but the champion survived and Burns, who is traditionally very durable, was slowly and convincingly overwhelmed on the feet from then on. Usman is a monster, and I'm not going to dock Burns for a defeat at the hands of one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet.
Thompson went through a rough 1-3 stretch from March 2017-2019, but has since rebounded with back-to-back unanimous decision victories over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal. Wonderboy looked excellent in both of those bouts, but it should be noted that both Luque and Neal are pure strikers, and there are very few men on the planet who can hang with Thompson in a kickboxing match. This will be a far tougher test given the overall physicality of Burns.
The striking numbers are shockingly similar between these two. Wonderboy lands more significant strikes per minute (4.24) than Burns (3.22), but the everything else (striking accuracy, strikes absorbed per minute, overall defense) is virtually even. Burns has always had pop in his hands, but his technique in the stand-up has really improved the past several years. Of course, that doesn't mean a prolonged kickboxing match is an ideal scenario for Burns, but he's a better striker than he gets credit for.
On the flip side, Burns averages 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes while Thompson defends the takedown at a stellar 78 percent clip. It's imperative Wonderboy keep this fight standing given Burns' all-world BJJ exploits.
This is another fight I'm completely torn on. Regular readers of this column know I have been one of Wonderboy's staunchest supporters from the get-go, and I'd probably take him here if the prices were equal, but Burns seems like too good of a value to pass up. He's been steamrolling guys lately and had the best welterweight in recent memory in all sorts of trouble in his last fight. Toss in the fact that Thompson is a volume-over-power guy, and I'll roll the dice on Burns at a discount, as much as it pains me to do so.
THE PICK: Burns
Heavyweight
Tai Tuivasa (12-3-0) v. Greg Hardy (7-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Tuivasa ($8,400), Hardy ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Tuivasa (-145), Hardy (+120)
Odds to Finish: -180
This fight will having shockingly little impact on the rankings in a thin heavyweight division, but Hardy is a well known name and the odds of it seeing the final bell are slim, so I understand why the UFC chose to put it on the main card of a pay-per-view.
Tuivasa began his UFC run with three straight wins before suffering three straight defeats. He has since rebounded to win back-to-back bouts via knockout, although those last two came against a since-retired Stefan Struve and someone named Harry Hunsucker. There is no mystery regarding Tuivasa's offensive attack. He steps into the Octagon and swings for the bleachers with every single shot, hoping he knocks his opponent out before he gets cracked in return. To Tuivasa's credit, his chin has generally held up, being knocked out just once in his pro career.
Hardy turns 33 years of age in a couple weeks and has all of 11 professional fights under his belt. Toss in three amateur fights and he's at 14 bouts. That's nowhere near enough for a guy who got a late start to the sport due to his NFL career and legal issues. Hardy is a high-level athlete (duh) and a below-average mixed martial artist. He, too, has a ton of power and elite explosiveness, but his defense is poor, and his cardio has been dreadful at times. He has beaten up on lesser competition and struggled against quality opponents. Tuivasa unquestionably falls more into the former column than the later, but it really doesn't take much to defeat Hardy as long as your chin holds up.
It's impossible to pick Hardy outright against a durable opponent simply because his path to victory is so limited. His cardio has been so poor that the odds of him scoring a stoppage win after the first round ends is exceedingly small. I don't hate the idea of using Hardy as a punt play if you are the type to make multiple lineups, but I don't think he wins. It's a good idea to get a piece of this one in some form or fashion as it seems unlikely to last all that long.
THE PICK: Tuivasa
Women's Bantamweight
Irene Aldana (12-6-0) v. Yana Kunitskaya (14-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Aldana ($8,300), Kunitskaya ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Aldana (-120), Kunitskaya (+100)
Odds to Finish: +200
A former Invicta veteran, Aldana has been extremely inconsistent during her time with the UFC. She lost her first two bouts with the company then won three straight. She has gone 2-2 in her past four since. Aldana's most recent fight was a main event showcase against an aging Holly Holm last October which resulted in a unanimous decision loss. She was dominated from bell-to-bell and didn't win a single round on any of the three judges scorecards.
Kunitskaya, a former Invicta Bantamweight Champion, fought Cris Cyborg for the UFC Women's Featherweight Championship in her company debut in March 2018 and was predictably destroyed. To Kunitskaya's credit, she has won four of five fights since, with a knockout loss to Aspen Ladd being the only setback over that span.
I have a difficult to envisioning this developing into anything other than a kickboxing match. Aldana is three inches taller, while each woman possesses a 68-inch reach.
I'm concerned about Aldana's defense. Yes, she lands 5.52 significant strikes per minute, but she eats a whopping 5.97 per minute. Compare that to Kunitskaya, who absorbs 2.62 significant strikes per minute.
Virtually all of Aldana's knockouts came early in her career against lesser competition. I trust Kunitskaya, under the tutelage of her fiancé (former UFC title challenger) Thiago Santos, to land the more impactful shots. This is more or less a pick 'em for me, with the minor underdog value on Kunitskaya being just enough for me to lean in her direction.
THE PICK: Kunitskaya
Welterweight
Carlos Condit (32-13-0) v. Max Griffin (17-8-0)
DK Salaries: Condit ($7,500), Griffin ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Condit (+165), Griffin (-200)
Odds to Finish: +150
Now 37 years of age, Condit has rebounded from a five-fight losing streak to score unanimous decision victories over Court McGee and Matt Brown in his last couple bouts. It goes without saying that Condit is nowhere near as effective as he was in his prime, but it should be noted that those five previously mentioned losses came against better competition than the last couple wins. I would wager Condit has a tad more left in the tank than most people think, but the UFC still needs to be careful regarding who they match him up against moving forward.
The picture of inconsistency, Griffin has managed just a 5-6 record through his first 11 bouts. He was actually just 3-6 at one point before a pair of recent knockout wins over Song Kenan and Ramiz Brahimaj. Griffin has a bunch of power. That's not the issue. This issue is his complete inability to defend himself on the feet. He absorbs 3.94 significant strikes per minute. For comparison's sake, Condit, who has struggled on the feet of late, absorbs just 2.94 per minute.
Both Condit and Griffin fight similarly. Both men try remain uber-aggressive on the feet and wear their opposition down with volume. Despite the aggressiveness, both men have proven to exceedingly durable. Each has been knocked out just once in their respective pro careers, with Griffin's coming against Colby Covington and Condit's due to a knee injury suffered in a fight against Tyron Woodley.
The difference here may very well come down to Griffin's grappling. He averages 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Condit defends the takedown at an abysmal 39 percent clip. "The Natural Born Killer" is going to be in trouble if Griffin forces him to the mat with ease.
Condit's poor takedown defense is enough to swing me in the direction of Griffin. My guess is that this fight is fairly competitive on the feet and a couple well-timed takedowns from Griffin make the difference.
THE PICK: Griffin
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley (13-1-0) v. Kris Moutinho (9-4-0)
DK Salaries: O'Malley ($9,500), Moutinho (N/A)
Vegas Odds: O'Malley (-900), Moutinho (+600)
Odds to Finish: -450
THE PICK: O'Malley
Welterweight
Niko Price (14-4-0, 2NC) v. Michel Pereira (25-11-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Price ($7,300), Pereira ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Price (+135), Pereira (-165)
Odds to Finish: -180
THE PICK: Pereira
Featherweight
Ryan Hall (8-1-0) v. Ilia Topuria (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Hall ($7,100), Topuria ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Hall (+195), Topuria (-250)
Odds to Finish: -170
THE PICK: Topuria
Middleweight
Trevin Giles (14-2-0) v. Dricus Du Plessis (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Giles ($8,000), Du Plessis ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Giles (-105), Du Plessis (-115)
Odds to Finish: -135
THE PICK: Du Plessis
Women's Flyweight
Jennifer Maia (18-7-1) v. Jessica Eye (15-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Maia ($8,800), Eye ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Maia (-190), Eye (+160)
Odds to Finish: +210
THE PICK: Maia
Middleweight
Omari Akhmedov (21-5-1) v. Brad Tavares (18-7-0)
DK Salaries: Akhmedov ($7,600), Tavares ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Akhmedov (+125), Tavares (-150)
Odds to Finish: +170
THE PICK: Akhmedov
Flyweight
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-5-0) v. Jerome Rivera (10-5-0)
DK Salaries: Zhumagulov ($9,200), Rivera ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Zhumagulov (-370), Rivera (+290)
Odds to Finish: +160
THE PICK: Zhumagulov
Middleweight
Hu Yaozong (3-2-0) v. Alen Amedovski (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hu ($7,200), Amedovski ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Hu (+120), Amedovski (-140)
Odds to Finish: -205
THE PICK: Amedovski
