DraftKings MMA: UFC 192 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 192 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The UFC will head to Houston on Saturday, where Daniel Cormier will make his first title defense against the man who gave Jon "Bones" Jones arguably the biggest challenge of his career – Alexander Gustafsson. Mix in a bout between top welterweight contenders, as well as the return of veteran Rashad Evans, and UFC fans should be in for an action-packed evening.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Light Heavyweight Championship

(C) Daniel Cormier (15-1-0) v. Alexander Gustafsson (16-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Cormier ($11,000), Gustafsson ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Cormier (-350), Gustafsson (+290)

No fighter in the UFC benefited from the meltdown of former champion Jon Jones more than Cormier. Despite losing handily to Jones in his first attempt to win the championship in January, Cormier got another kick at the can and took advantage of it, defeating Anthony Johnson in May to win the vacant title. That's the good news; the bad news is that Gustafsson possesses all of the skills that caused DC to struggle in his fight against Jones. Gustafsson will have a six-inch height advantage. He is extremely long and his best bet for victory is to pepper DC with shots from distance while doing all he can to keep the champion from getting his hands on him. Cormier is relentless and a terrific wrestler. If he can manage to drag Gustafsson to the mat, the Swede is going to be in a world of trouble. But Gustafsson's takedown defense is fantastic. It was perhaps the most impressive part of his stellar effort in his razor-thin decision loss to Jones in 2013. Cormier is too smart and too well trained to get into an extended kickboxing match against Gustafsson. He is going to try to initiate the clinch and force this fight to be contested in tight. And while Gustafsson may be able to stop the majority of DC's attempted takedowns, all it takes is one well place one and Gustafsson could find himself on his back for the remainder of a round. I think this fight is close – closer than the odds indicate at least. I would be no means be shocked if Gustafsson won, but DC is such a smart fighter and worked so hard to get to the top of the mountain that I have a hard time believing that he is going to drop the belt in his first title defense. All that being said, daily fantasy players will virtually never find a fighter of Gustafsson's caliber with such a low DraftKings salary. If you plan on tinkering with multiple lineups, I would certainly advocate getting The Mauler into a couple of them.
THE PICK: Cormier

Co-Main Event – Welterweight

Johny Hendricks (17-3-0) v. Tyron Woodley (15-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Hendricks ($10,800), Woodley ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Hendricks (-300), Woodley (+250)

If Hendricks isn't the best welterweight in the world, he is "1B" to current champion Robbie Lawler's "1A". Woodley is a legitimate top-five welterweight, but I don't think he is on the level of Hendricks. Both of these guys are terrific wrestlers and they each have massive one-punch knockout power. Hendricks tends to be more active on the feet, but he also eats more shots. While Hendricks averages a ridiculous 4.44 takedowns per fight, Woodley's takedown defense is over 91%. Overlooked in all this is the fact that Woodley has struggled a bit against better competition. He had to go to a split decision in his last fight to defeat Kelvin Gastelum, his win over Carlos Condit was the result of Condit suffering a torn ACL during the bout, and he has losses against Rory MacDonald, Nate Marquardt and Jake Shields. The only losses in the last four-plus years for Hendricks came against Georges St. Pierre and Lawler, and an argument can be made that Hendricks should have gotten the decision win in both fights. Woodley has the power to win this fight, but I think Hendricks would clearly be able to score more points than him if the fight ends up going a significant amount of time. Using Woodley on DK or betting on him is basically hoping that he lands one huge punch that stops the fight.
THE PICK: Hendricks

Light Heavyweight

Ryan Bader (20-4-0) v. Rashad Evans (24-3-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Bader ($9,300), Evans ($10,100)
Vegas Odds: Bader (+140), Evans (-160)

It would appear that this fight, like many on this card, could go either way. To be perfectly honest, Bader probably deserves a title shot. He has won four fights in a row, including wins over Ovince St. Preux and Phil Davis. It's not like the light heavyweight division is deep. Instead, UFC officials decided to go with the more marketable bout and gave Gustafsson another title opportunity. The story surrounding Evans is all about injuries. Due to a leg injury and most recently a knee injury, Evans has been sidelined for nearly two years. His last fight was a TKO win over Chael Sonnen at UFC 167 in November 2013. This fight could very easily be a wrestling match that ends up going the distance. Bader and Evans combine for seven-plus takedowns a fight and while neither guy is a particularly accurate striker, both guys are terrific at avoiding taking heavy damage while standing. This looks like a pick 'em fight to me. There isn't a lot separating the two fighters and it wouldn't be a surprise if either guy won. In that case, I'll take the guy who hasn't been on the sidelines for nearly two years.
THE PICK: Bader

Heavyweight

Shawn Jordan (18-6-0) v. Ruslan Magomedov (13-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Jordan ($9,500), Magomedov ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Jordan (+125), Magomedov (-145)

Jordan is a terrific athlete. He won two Division I NCAA football titles while playing fullback for LSU. He's short for the heavyweight division at just six feet tall, but he has terrific footwork and has won three-straight fights via TKO/KO, including earning back-to-back performance of the night bonuses. Magomedov is one of an emerging group of UFC fighters from the Republic of Dagestan in Russia. A former world kickboxing champion, he has won his first two UFC fights via lopsided unanimous decisions. This fight will almost certainly consist of Magomedov trying to pepper Jordan on the feet; while Jordan does everything he can to turn the fight into anything but a kickboxing match. The problem is, when you have two human beings the size of these two guys, it is harder to drag a guy to the ground than it would be in the flyweight division. Any heavyweight fight (or any fight, really) can end at any time, and Jordan has shown he has knockout power, but I don't think Jordan's athleticism can make up for Magomedov's striking advantage. Jordan is going to have to turn this into something other than a kickboxing match if he hopes to win.
THE PICK: Magomedov

Women's Bantamweight

Jessica Eye (11-3-0, 1NC) v. Julianna Pena (7-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Eye ($8,700), Pena ($10,700)
Vegas Odds: Eye (+205), Pena (-245)

Eye is well known in the women's bantamweight division, but she has never really done anything to earn that distinction. Eye has never beaten anyone of note in her career outside of Sarah Kaufman, and that was a controversial split decision that was changed to a no contest after Eye failed a post-fight drug test. A former Ultimate Fighter winner, Pena is one of the few young prospects in the division that has top-flight potential. She suffered a horrific knee injury that caused her to miss over 16 months worth of action, but Pena returned in April and picked up a first-round TKO win over Milana Dudieva. Eye is a good boxer, but that's about it. Her movements are extremely stiff and she spends too much time standing in front of her opponents. There is no way that Pena is going to allow Eye to tee off with her hands. Pena's ground game is better than Eye's and her wrestling game is significantly better. Eye is tough enough and durable enough to potentially take this fight to a decision, but it is going to take a mistake from Pena for her to win.
THE PICK: Pena

Flyweight

Joseph Benavidez (22-4-0) v. Ali Bagautinov (13-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Benavidez ($10,900), Bagautinov ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Benavidez (-330), Bagautinov (+270)

Yes, Bagautinov is still employed by the UFC. He hasn't fought since his title fight loss to Demetrious Johnson in June 2014. After the fight was over, Bagautinov tested positive for performance enhancing drugs and he was suspended for a year by the British Columbia Athletic Commission (the fight took place in Vancouver). His return fight won't be any easier than his last one. We all know that Benavidez can't beat Johnson or Dominick Cruz (two losses to each), but he wins every other fight. Bagautinov has beaten talented guys like John Lineker and Tim Elliott during his time in the UFC, but athletes like Benavidez and Johnson are on a different level. Benavidez is an elite athlete whose explosiveness can be matched only by Mighty Mouse. He is constantly moving and putting pressure on his opponents. He is one of the last guys anyone would want to fight after a long layoff. Bagautinov is known for his striking, but the rest of his game is solid. It's not that Ali isn't good; it's just that Benavidez is great. I would pick him over any flyweight not named Demetrious Johnson.
THE PICK: Benavidez

Other Bouts


Featherweight

Yair Rodriguez (6-1-0) v. Dan Hooker (12-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez ($10,400), Hooker ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-220), Hooker (+180)
THE PICK: Rodriguez

Welterweight

Alan Jouban (11-3-0) v. Albert Tumenov (15-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Jouban ($9,100), Tumenov ($10,300)
Vegas Odds: Jouban (+170), Tumenov (-200)
THE PICK: Tumenov

Women's Strawweight

Rose Namajunas (3-2-0) v. Angela Hill (2-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Namajunas ($10,600), Hill ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Namajunas (-255), Hill (+215)
THE PICK: Namajunas

Lightweight

Adriano Martins (27-7-0) v. Islam Makhachev (12-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Martins ($9,700), Makhachev ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Martins (-125), Makhachev (+105)
THE PICK: Makhachev

Flyweight

Chris Cariaso (17-7-0) v. Sergio Pettis (12-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Cariaso ($9,200), Pettis ($10,200)
Vegas Odds: Cariaso (+160), Pettis (-185)
THE PICK: Cariaso

Heavyweight

Derrick Lewis (12-4-0, 1NC) v. Viktor Pesta (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lewis ($9,400), Pesta ($10,000)
Vegas Odds: Lewis (+125), Pesta (-145)
THE PICK: Pesta

Lightweight

Francisco Trevino (12-1-0) v. Sage Northcutt (5-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Trevino ($8,900), Northcutt ($10,500)
Vegas Odds: Trevino (+215), Northcutt (-255)
THE PICK: Northcutt

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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