NHL PrizePicks Today: Top NHL Player Props & Picks for April 24-25 – Best Plays
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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
Not Sure How to Capitalize on TOI: Check out our PrizePicks Time On Ice 101
Not Sure How to Capitalize on TOI: Check out our PrizePicks Time On Ice 101
Playoff Notes
Before we get to the picks, a few things to keep in mind during the playoffs:
Overtime will not count in the playoffs. This might be a shock to those who jumped into TOI this season. But for those who've been playing it for a few years, you're used to overtime being excluded. This seems like a big change, though it shouldn't affect that many plays -- or, at least, the wins and losses should balance out. I know I complain a lot about overtime, and you'd think it's been a negative for me, though it probably evened out overall. This doesn't change my strategy at all. If the matchups are tight, that probably means the star players have already gone over their numbers.
Things can get weird in the playoffs. When a game starts to go the wrong way, you'll often see players attempting to "send a message." What that means for us is sometimes a player will get a game misconduct to kill any over possibility. It seems weird, as it rarely happens during the regular season, but the playoffs are different. If you have an over and your player is down a couple of goals later on, there's a chance you lose him to a misconduct. I've had it happen a few times, including an instance two years ago where I had Drew Doughty going over, and he was well ahead of pace, only to pick up a 10-minute penalty halfway through the third period. I'm not saying it's going to happen every night, though it'll likely come up at some point. Hopefully, our recommendations won't be involved.
Teams won't always go all-in to get the win. It sounds counterintuitive, but coaches don't want to chase after a lost cause during a seven-game series. At some point, a coach must decide if it's worth going all-in to win. If he decides it's not worth it, then the star players aren't going back on the ice to save their legs and to avoid any shenanigans that happen at the end of playoff games.
All the above are reasons to take the less option more frequently in the postseason until you realize that the stars are generally going to receive more ice time than normal from the first two periods -- and the third if the score is tight. It's a balancing act, and I'll do my best to figure out where these plays are going to land each night.
Analyzing NHL Time on Ice PrizePicks Plays
Card Overview: We went 4-2 on the previous card with a tough loss on Thomas Chabot. Yes, Chabot went well over his number, but Ottawa's top defenseman, Jake Sanderson, left the game midway through the second period, which opened up a ton of minutes and with no one else to fill those minutes, a majority went to Chabot.
However, we move on. We again have a combination of cards for this article, as we want to get as many games possible into the mix. I feel pretty good about this card, but I have to admit, I don't like the way the lines adjust so quickly during the playoffs. I think it's the limited amount of games that allows for more scrutiny on the lines and leaves a smaller chance that some players slip through the cracks.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Mikhail Sergachev 24.75 at Vegas Golden Knights - Friday - 9:30 p.m. ET (MORE)
My confidence in Sergachev is waning just a bit, only because he isn't seeing the same minutes he saw in the regular season, but part of that has to do with Utah getting out to leads in the first two games of this series. Even though the Mammoth lost Game 1, they were in the lead for a big chunk of that matchup, and the same was true in Game 2. I don't think we need a trail script here, but it would certainly help. I'm still waiting for that game where he gets nine-plus minutes in the first period and doesn't look back, but that hasn't happened yet. If we can keep a neutral script or get a trail script for even half a period, I think we're good here. I should note that even though PrizePicks shows his minutes at under 25 for Game 2, he did get over 25 minutes. I've noticed this with a few players, so I would not trust the numbers for the previous five games on PrizePicks right now. Double check with RotoWire's stats if you aren't convinced the numbers are correct.
Evan Bouchard 26.25 at Anaheim Ducks - Friday - 10:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Bouchard is capable of playing 30 minutes per game, so this pick makes me a little uncomfortable, but the Oilers have been in trail scripts in both Game 1 and Game 2, and Bouchard is averaging just over 26 minutes in the first two games. Normally he'd be closer to 28 minutes in a scenario like that, but he hasn't seen the ice as much to begin this series. That could be due to the fact that's he's minus-3 so far on the plus/minus, while no other Oilers defenseman is negative through two games. Maybe this just isn't a good matchup for him? I can't say for sure, but I do know that Edmonton was in a trail script for nearly two full periods Wednesday, and Bouchard barely got over this number, so if the Oilers can keep it even or get a lead, this one should be safe.
John Carlson 23.75 vs. Edmonton Oilers - Friday - 10:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Carlson is another player who shows inaccurate information for his previous five games on PrizePicks. He did get over the 24-minute mark in Game 2, which is important to note because, as mentioned in the Bouchard section, the Ducks were in a positive script for nearly two full periods. I'm still a little confused with how Anaheim is holding back on Carlson's minutes compared what we saw in the regular season, but he did see more minutes in Game 2 than he did in Game 1, and considering that resulted in a win for the Ducks, I would expect that trend to continue in Game 3. It would be helpful to get a trail script for more than five minutes, but I think a neutral script will do the trick here as well.
SCRIPT/LINE/INJURY DEPENDENT
Lane Hutson 26 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning - Tuesday - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
I'm going back to the well here, but I had to move Hutson down to the script dependent section because now that Alexandre Carrier is back, he's not getting much, if any, penalty kill action. Hutson is still capable of getting over this number, but he needs a better script than he's seen in the first two games, or rather, a worse script from the Canadiens perspective. Montreal trailed for just 7.5 minutes in Game 2 and led for about 14 minutes. If that's flipped in Game 3, Hutson will get over 26 minutes. I should note that Noah Dobson might be back soon, which will make it more difficult to get the same number of minutes moving forward, but I think we're in the clear for this game.
Thomas Chabot 27.25 vs. Carolina Hurricanes - Saturday - 3:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
I was bullish on Chabot's under in Game 3, partially because I thought Artem Zub would be available, but that wasn't the case. Zub and Jake Sanderson, who left Game 3 with an injury, will both be sidelined Saturday, which makes this a favorable over. The line should actually be 28 or higher, but this line was set before their statuses were known. Ottawa didn't get any favors with just one day between Game 3 and Game 4, so it isn't very surprising to see Zub and Sanderson sidelined. Now that Zub and Sanderson have been ruled out, those on PrizePicks miss out on the optimal line, but Chabot is still a decent play with both players sidelined.
Quinn Hughes 28.5 vs. Dallas Stars - Saturday - 5:30 p.m. ET (MORE)
Hughes has topped this number in the past two games in this series. One was a largely trail script and one was a mix, which was essentially a neutral script. My worry here is that Hughes is not crushing his number lately, he's just creeping over, but considering that this is a must-win matchup for the Wild, I have to imagine that Minnesota is going to give Hughes all the time he can handle. He did put in over 40 minutes (overtime included) in Game 3, but luckily, these teams got an extra day off between Game 3 and Game 4, so he should be fresh. Unless the Wild jump out early and don't look back, I would expect another matchup where Hughes ends up north of 28 minutes, and hopefully he's closer to 30 than 28.














