This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
NHL Picks Tonight: Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 Player Props
RotoWire.com's Will Saad breaks down his player props to target as the Stanley Cup Finals get underway Wednesday night as the Avalanche get set to host the two-time defending champion Lightning. Check out our NHL betting page for all the latest odds and insights.
NHL Player Props
Andrei Vasilevskiy o32.5 Saves (PrizePicks)
Colorado at home is an offensive machine. When playing at home these playoffs, Colorado averages over forty-three shots on goal. In rounds one and three of the playoffs, the opposing goalie (or goalies combined if the starter was pulled) going against Colorado had gone over this mark in every game. Even against St. Louis, in the three games that were at Colorado, the saves log on the St. Louis side were 51, 30 and 30. Even if we are generous and say Colorado only gets 38 shots on goal, with Vasilevskiy's 91.6% save percentage these playoffs, that would put him at almost thirty-five saves. It would take a sub-par performance from Colorado and a sub-par performance from Vasilevskiy for him to go under this line. On top of that, in Vasilevskiy's most recent game against Colorado, he had forty-seven saves. In two games at Colorado this season, Colorado averages thirty-seven shots (and thirty-five at home). Colorado also averages over four power plays per game in those two home games compared to only three in the two games at Tampa. The volume and opportunity should absolutely be there. Rotowire projections also have him projected slightly over at 32.72 shots.
Nathan MacKinnon o4.5 Shots on Goal (PrizePicks)
It was discussed above how dominant Colorado's offense can be when playing at home, well MacKinnon deserves a lot of credit for that. In seven home games these playoffs, he has had over eight shot attempts in each game and ten or more in five of those seven. In the playoffs, he is averaging as high as 5.9 shots on goal per game and 6.6 if isolated to only home games. He has cleared this line in every home game except two, and those happen to be the only two games he had less than four power play minutes on ice (he had two and just below two and both games).
Not only is he clearing this line of 4.5, but he has also gotten six or more in every home game he has gone over and eight or more in three of the seven home games. Looking at the entirety of the playoffs --home and away -- he has cleared this line in nine of fourteen games and again, his misses came with less than four power play minutes on ice (had three games with less than four where he still covered). I say this in tandem with the stat mentioned earlier that Colorado also averages over four power plays per game in those two home games compared to only three in the two games at Tampa. To make matters even better, Tampa allows 13.71 shots on goal per game to Centers when they are away these playoffs. Rotowire projections also have him at 4.78 Shots on goal.
Colorado should get a lot of shots on goal tonight, just like they have been all playoffs, specifically at home, and just like they have done specifically against Tampa this season. If that is the case, Vasilevskiy should face plenty of shots, and MacKinnon should be taking a large portion of those shots that go at him. In the Stanley Cup Finals, things get intense, and the stars will want to show up. Everyone will look to rise to the occasion. If MacKinnon does just that, the chances of Vasilevskiy staying under are slim.
