2024 Stanley Cup Finals: Panthers vs. Oilers Prediction Based on History

2024 Stanley Cup Finals: Panthers vs. Oilers Prediction Based on History

At the end of the regular season, the Panthers had won the Atlantic Division while posting a 52-24-6 record powered by Vezina Trophy nominee Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes and their presence in the postseason was never in doubt. Meanwhile, the Oilers went a down-right terrible 2-9-1 to open the season, firing coach Jay Woodcroft in favor of Kris Knoblach. With a new bench boss in place, the Oilers won 16 games in a row from late December to early February to earn a playoff spot. 

How We Got Here

The Panthers are back in the Stanley Cup Finals having gotten past the Lightning, Bruins and Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers by margins of 4-1, 4-2 and 4-2, respectively -- a run that included four overtime games. It was all Edmonton in the regular season, however, as they won both of the matchups between these two teams by a combined scoreline of 10-4. The Oilers path to the Stanley Cup Finals wasn't as smooth as Florida, going 4-1, 4-3 and 4-2 to the Kings, Canucks and Stars, respectively. Things looked especially grim when the team benched starter Stuart Skinner for Calvin Pickard -- a temporary change that appears to have revitalized Skinner. 

Florida Panthers Stanley Cup Finals History

As mentioned, the Cats find themselves returning to the back in the Stanley Cup Finals after losing to the Vegas Golden Knights last season. The previous two teams who lost in the Finals and made it back the next season, the '08 Penguins and '83 Oilers, both secured victories in the second attempt. Florida will no doubt be looking to that history rather than their own, as the organization is 0-2 in its prior two Cup series. All the big names from last year remain with the club and can rely on that experience, including Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Sergei Bobrovsky. They can also lean on Vladimir Tarasenko and Carter Verhaeghe, who have lifted Lord Stanley's chalice with previous teams. 

Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup Finals History

That '83 Edmonton team would take that defeat to heart, winning the Stanley Cup in 84, 85, 87 and 88 while leaning on the greatest NHL player of all time Wayne Gretzky. As an organization, they would go on to make two more Finals appearances in the post-Gretzky era with a win in 1990 and a loss in 2006. This 2024 team is constructed similarly to the early 80's squad with serious star power courtesy of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Having said that looking at this roster, it feels the same as last year's Florida Panthers with 18 members of the Oilers making their first-ever Finals appearance -- with Corey Perry their lone previous winner on their roster, though he also lost three straight from 2020-222. 

Historical Advantage - Predicting a Winner

While the long-term view would certainly favor Edmonton as the team makes its eighth appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals, it's been nearly 20 years since the Oilers made a deep run into the postseason. Let's not forget, it's also been over 30 years since the 1993 Montreal Canadiens lifted the Cup -- the last Canadian-based club to do so. Having said that, the sheer experience of the Panthers returning to the Finals points to them finally winning the Cup, which is also backed up by them being the odds-on favorite with Florida -135 at the DraftKings Sportsbook compared to Edmonton at +115.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
AJ Scholz
Co-Host of PuckCast with Statsman and AJ and unabashed Penguins fan.
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