Weekly PGA Preview: The Genesis Invitational

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera CC
Pacific Palisades, CA

The PGA Tour heads back west for The Genesis Invitational.

Before we get to that, a couple thoughts on the event this past weekend, and unfortunately, this has little to do with the golf that was played. The WM emerged out of nowhere a while back as a fun little quirky golf event on the schedule, mostly due to the rowdy nature of the crowd, specifically on hole 16. The hole, the stadium set up, the crowd, everything was fresh and exciting. The golf purists weren't all that fond of the hole and the event, but in a schedule full of events trying to separate themselves, the WM found it's niche. That was then however, and this is now. After this past week, it appears as though the shine has worn off this event. It's no longer just fun, it's become a cartoon of itself, with fans looking to one up each other in a never-ending battle of stupidity. It used to be about the interaction between the fans and the golfers on hole 16, but now it's just about how outrageous the fans can get. I watched a bit of the coverage on Friday and Saturday and honestly, I got bored with hole 16. The specter of getting booed for a bad shot is fun to watch...for a while, and then it gets old. There's nothing unique about that hole, it's a decent hole, with a bunch of loud drunks, but the bit has run its course. I follow golf to watch golfers do things I could never do, not to watch fans. I can get drunk and make a fool of myself, that's not special, I'm here to watch guys hit 350-yard drives and stick iron shots from 150 yards. I'm not calling for an end to the mayhem at this event, some people love it, most of those are also fans of LIV and if that's your thing, great, but I'm just stating that it's no longer "must-see" in my opinion, it's just another event on the calendar with no particular draw outside of who shows up to play.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Jon Rahm shot a final-round 69 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Max Homa.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (13-2)

Scheffler is doing that thing again. That thing where he contends every week but doesn't win. He did this for many months to start this past season and it took a while to finally get that win. How long will it take this season? Scheffler is close to top form and his track record here is pretty good, so this could be the week, but "could" is not good enough when getting these odds.

Rory McIlroy (10-1)

McIlroy, like a lot of the top players in the field, has a pretty good, but not a great track record here. That's what happens when you get on a high-quality golf course however, it's tough to dominate a course like Riviera year after year. With that in mind, McIlroy is in the mix, but these odds don't provide enough value.

Viktor Hovland (14-1)

Let's start by stating, we're all glad Hovland didn't jump ship to LIV after withdrawing from the WM Open. The sad state of affairs now puts everyone in a panic as soon as anyone on the PGA Tour withdraws from an event. With that behind us, we can look forward to this week. Hovland's track record here is solid, with two top-5s in three stars, but he withdrew this past week because he wasn't comfortable with how he was playing. Not exactly inspiring confidence.

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (18-1)

I generally prefer to go no lower than 20-1 in this section, but I had to find a place for Cantlay, whose track record here is hard to ignore. Cantlay has finished outside the top 17 just once in his past six starts here, and he's finished inside the top-5 in two of those starts. Cantlay has flashed some game in recent weeks, and he provides some value at this price.

Max Homa (20-1)

After six weeks of long shots, I'm all over the chalk this time around. I mentioned that a lot of high-end players have good but not great track record here, but Homa is the exception. Homa won this event in 2021 and he finished runner-up to the formerly competitive Jon Rahm this past year. Homa missed the cut this past week and finished T66 at Pebble Beach, but I can't ignore the track record and the fact that he generally plays his best golf in California.

Sam Burns (22-1)

Burns has been trending the right way for nearly two months and it's just a matter of time before he gets another win. His best showing of the season came this past week where he finished T3. Burns' track record here is all over the place, but on the plus side, he did have a high-end finish in 2021 when he finished T3. There are a lot of good options to consider, but at this price Burns has ample value.

LONG SHOTS

Nicolai Hojgaard (55-1)

It's not likely that a first-timer is going to pull off a win here, but perhaps Hojgaard really takes to the course. If so, his form is good enough to pull off a win. Hojgaard was runner-up at the Farmers a few weeks ago and while he didn't play that great at Pebble Beach, he's got the talent to win out here, so again, if he takes to Riviera, he could be a factor.

Will Zalatoris (60-1)

I guess it's fairly clear I favor course history over form this week. Zalatoris is still working his way back from injury, but we've seen some good signs already. He posted a top-20 in his first start back this past fall and he finished T13 in his most recent start at the Farmers. Prior to his injury this past season, he finished solo fourth at this event. He's still probably a ways off from winning, but you won't have the chance to get odds like this on him much longer.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Patrick Cantlay - When trying to gauge ownership this week a lot of factors come into play. The first is that I believe most owners will save Scheffler and McIlroy for later. Hovland is not at the top of his game right now, so most will pass on him, so that leaves Cantlay and Homa. Homa has a better track record, but he missed the cut this past week, so I'm expecting Cantlay to be the top pick.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Sam Burns - I'm doing thing a little different this week in that I think there is a trio of players that will make up most of the top-3 and I think Burns, along with Homa and Cantlay make up that trio. Of that group, Burns has the worst track record, but the best form, so depending on how your league values form vs. track record, Burns might be at the top of the list.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Sahith Theegala - If there weren't so many good options at the top, Theegala might get more attention, but as it stands, the top guys are going to get most of the ownership. Theegala made a serious run this past week and that's something that we should probably get used to going forward as he gains more experience.

Buyer Beware: Viktor Hovland - Perhaps he figured out his game this past week or maybe he just wanted to avoid the crowds in Scottsdale, but whatever the case, he withdrew this past week, so he's probably not mentally right at the moment. Normally Hovland could overcome that because he's so good, but the field is stacked and the course is usually tough, so he'll have to be on his game to contend.

This Week: Max Homa - I'm definitely taking a risk here as Homa missed the cut this past week, but that only works in my favor as he likely won't have the highest ownership. You really can't go wrong with any of the three I mentioned earlier, but I prefer the history that Homa has here and in California. Besides, it's not like winning the week after missing a cut is unprecedented.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Max Homa ($11,500)
Middle Range: Sam Burns ($10,500)
Lower Range: Harris English ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Sahith Theegala - This is a Signature Event, so you can't get too creative with your pick this week, but then again only a maximum of 20 players are going to miss the cut, so you don't want to use a top-tier guy either. In steps Theegala, who hasn't missed a cut in three tries here and is in good form.

Previous Results