Weekly PGA Preview: The American Express

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

The American Express

Pete Dye Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
La Quinta, CA

The PGA Tour heads east to California for another edition of The American Express.

This will be the first time that the absence of Jon Rahm is felt, as he would have been the defending champion if he were playing. Luckily, though, we've still got a ton of firepower on hand. This is not a Signature Event, which makes it even more special that we have so many big names in the field. It's quite impressive that a non-Signature Event can draw the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and many others. Let's not gloss over the fact that this isn't a signature event though, especially when considering your OAD picks this week. This is always a tough spot because the big names at the top are the most likely to win this week but using them in a OAD pool is probably not wise as only a win or a runner-up will provide enough value. It's sounds strange to say a third-place finish isn't good enough but pulling in roughly $600k isn't what you want out of a lot of these guys. This is also the start of course rotation season and three courses will be in-play this week, but none of them new, so track record is in play this week.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Jon Rahm shot a final-round 68 on his way to one-stroke victory over Davis Thompson.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (11-2)

Get used to seeing these odds for Scheffler this season. With no Rahm and Rory McIlroy absent this week, Scheffler is getting some ridiculously low odds this week, and while he's likely to be in contention, is there any value at this price? I rarely advise taking anyone at less than 10-1, but for Scheffler I'll make the occasional exception...but not this week. In order to take odds this low, I'm going to need a great track record and solid form. The form looks good enough, but the track record here is just okay. Three top-25s in four starts, but just one top-10.

Patrick Cantlay (9-1)

This is definitely the time of year to take a hard look at Cantlay as he usually plays well out west. His track record here is pretty solid with two T9s, and one runner-up. Oddly enough, for someone who seems like an introvert, Cantlay played better here when they stilled had the pro-am included with this event. As for this week though, Cantlay will likely contend, but this number doesn't provide enough value.

Xander Schauffele (12-1)

Is this the year that Schauffele truly breaks through? It's a bit of a slight to say that he hasn't broke through yet, he's been very successful on the PGA Tour over the past five years, but it seems like everyone expects more from him. In order to get to that next level, he'll need to win a major, or just win more often. This would be a good spot to start stacking wins, but his track record here is a bit scattered. He's missed two cuts in three starts, but his best finish came last year when he finished T3.

THE NEXT TIER

Sungjae Im (22-1)

Im probably provides more value as a OAD pick than on a win ticket, but either way, he should be in the mix come Sunday. The reason is his track record here, which while not outstanding, is still very good. Im has only one top-10 here, but he's never finished worse than T18 in five starts. It's certainly a little concerning that he hasn't found a way to close in style, but he's consistently giving himself a chance to win.

Min Woo Lee (28-1)

Lee is on the short list of players looking to jump into the upper tier of the PGA Tour this year and he certainly has the talent, but can he produce at a high level? This will be Lee's first start at this event, which is always a little tricky, but at this price it's worth the risk. After all, he might take to the courses in this rotation and if that happens, you won't be getting odds like this again this season.

J.T. Poston (30-1)

Poston's track record here is a bit scattered, but his best finish came this past year where he posted a T6. He also enters with solid form, which includes a top-10 this past week at the Sony. Poston is another guy who could make a jump this year if things go well early in the season.

LONG SHOTS

Taylor Montgomery (60-1)

It was at this time this past season that many of us were predicting big things for Montgomery and while he played well through the month of March, his game fell off quite a bit after that. It looks like he's on his way back up however and he posted a top-15 this past week at the Sony. He might not be ready to win quite yet, but I think he's getting closer.

Daniel Berger (90-1)
Will Zalatoris (110-1)

A pair of golfers coming off long injury layoffs here and that's why they are both listed at these idds. Does either have a good shot of winning this week? No, but again, the price. What matters here is that both guys have as much talent as anyone in the field outside of Scheffler and when right, they can win. I don't think either will win this week, but I also think it would be fun to lay these odds on either or both of these guys in the hopes that they are ready to roll after a long layoff.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Sungjae Im - There will be plenty of OAD players willing to use Scheffler, Schauffele or Cantlay this week, but I would advise against it. As mentioned earlier, anything outside of a top-2 and you're not getting enough value for any of those three, so with that in mind, we need to look at the 2nd-tier and that's where Im comes into play. He's been very consistent here and should get you a decent check this week.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: J.T. Poston - There are a handful of guys in the 2nd-tier that I would consider this week and Poston is near the top of that list. One reason is that even though he's playing better lately, I'm probably not using him at a signature event, so there's no buyer's remorse here.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Taylor Montgomery - I thought about getting creative and using Berger in this spot as he's probably not going to work his way into the Signature Events this season, but I need to see him play at least once before using him. Montgomery seems to be on the way back up and this could be a great time to use him.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - I generally take risks in this spot and this week is no exception. I think Thomas bounces back this season, but I'm not sure it starts here. He hasn't played this event since 2015 and there's probably a reason for that. He's likely trying to get some momentum going by playing here, but he's skipped this event for the past eight years, so I have to imagine the courses don't suit his eye.

This Week: Sungjae Im - I learned a lesson this past year not to chase my losses so I'm playing it safe this week. This past year I got down early and felt the need to make up ground right away, but if I'd just stayed calm, I probably would have fared better. I missed with Theegala this past week and I'm not going to compound that loss with a risky pick, so I'll take the safe route and likely not gain much ground this week, but I won't lose any either.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sungjae Im ($11,600)
Middle Range: Akshay Bhatia ($9,800)
Lower Range: Matt Wallace ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Sungjae Im - I know, not a very exciting route here, but excitement is not what you are looking for in this format, you are looking for steady and boring. Im does not have a lot of high-end finishes here, but he's never come close to missing the cut either and that's the perfect formula in this format.

Previous Results