Sony Open in Hawaii
Waialae CC
Honolulu, HI
The PGA Tour heads to Honolulu for another edition of the Sony Open in Hawaii.
After the longest break in recent memory, the PGA Tour is back up and running this week in Hawaii. We missed out on The Sentry this year, so the Sony is the opener.
Not only are we popping the cork on the PGA Tour season this week, but we also got some interesting news early in the week with Brooks Koepka making his return. Koepka will incur some serious penalties to make his return prior than the previously mandated 12-months after his most recent start on LIV rule, but he must feel it's worth it to get back to real golf. You have to wonder what the folks at LIV are thinking right now. Just a few years ago it looked like LIV golf was putting a serious dent into the PGA Tour and now it looks like LIV is on life support. If Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm follow Koepka back to the PGA Tour, then I'm not sure how LIV survives. Then again, would we even be able to tell if they didn't?
Enough of that, we've got plenty to look forward to on the PGA Tour this season and for once, there's no sense of dread entering the season about possible defections. Sure losing Thomas Detry will take a while to get over, but I think we'll manage.
As always, it's a bit of a ramp-up each season with the Sony. It's not the strongest field, but we do have some bigger names in the field and it's usually our first glimpse at the new rookie class, which looks to be fairly strong this season.
Beyond the Sony, we've got a lot to look forward to this season. On top of that list is what Scottie Scheffler is going to accomplish this season. He's dominated the tour for a few years, but he's obliterated it for the past two seasons. He got off to a slow start this past season because of the self-inflicted hand wound, but he has no such issues this season. It will be interesting to see if he gets a better start this season. My guess is that he will and with that, he'll likely have more of an impact on the first few signature events.
After that, we've got Rory McIlroy, who now owns the career Grand Slam and has had plenty of time to process it. Where is his ceiling now? I'd imagine it's pretty high, but you never know what can happen to an athlete after they've scaled their Mt. Everest.
There are plenty more stories that I can't get to now and plenty more to evolve over the next eight months, so let's get to it! Good luck to everyone reading this season, let's have a good one!
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LAST YEAR
Nick Taylor shot a final round 65 on his way to a playoff victory over Nico Echavarria.
FAVORITES
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.
Russell Henley (10-1)
This is an important season for Henley as he made the leap this past season to the next level and now it's time to prove he belongs. That leap was from a solid golfer who could win any given week, to one who is a factor at signature events and one who should be on Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup teams for the foreseeable future. As evidenced by his odds this week, the public has bought into Henley as an upper-tier golfer on the PGA Tour. How will he respond to being the favorite though? We don't have a lot of history in this situation, but something tells me he'll be fine. He's got a strong track record here with four top-10s in 13 starts, three of which have come in the past four years.
J.J. Spaun (17-1)
Speaking of guys taking their game to the next level. For Spaun, who had won previously on the PGA Tour, the leap was winning his first major. His 2025 was much more than that however as he played at a different level all season. Though his track record overall has been spotty since joining the PGA Tour, it seems like he's finally found his footing at his current level. As for this week, he's been hit or miss here, which is fine for a win-bet, so feel free to include Spaun in your tickets. Spaun has missed the cut here in 5/8 starts, but he did post a T3 here this past year and remember, he's entering this year's Sony with more confidence than ever.
Hideki Matsuyama (17-1)
Matsuyama is coming off a bit of a disappointing season. He got off to a great start (in Hawaii) this past season, but did nothing with that momentum. He'll look to get back on track this week in a spot where he's had plenty of success. Matsuyama won this event in 2022 and hasn't missed a cut here in over a decade.
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THE NEXT TIER
Ben Griffin (19-1)
A strange setup this week as the favorites are clumped together and there really aren't that many mid-tier guys, so I have to stretch my definition of "mid-tier" and put in some guys that have lower odds. As you'll see, the bigger names this week are all in this range. Griffin came out of nowhere this past season and firmly planted his flag as a top-20 golfer. Whether he can stay there or not is the question this season, but he's got a great chance to get off to a good start against a fairly light field. Though he was great this past season, we still don't know much about Griffin. We've seen golfers play great in short stretches and then come back to Earth, so the jury is still out on Griffin. He needs to keep this up well into this season to make believers out of everyone, but again, great opportunity here to start fast. His track record at Waialae is okay, no missed cuts, but no top-10s either in three starts.
Keegan Bradley (20-1)
The entire 2024 season was a strange one for Bradley. He was set to be the captain of the Ryder Cup team, yet still had a chance to be a player as well. In the end, even though he should have played, he decided to leave himself off the team as a player. This situation could not have been easy, but he somehow managed to play great golf for most of the season. With that added pressure behind him, I'm expecting even better play this season. Bradley has been hit or miss here over the past five seasons, with two missed cuts and three top-15s, but he did finished runner-up here in 2024, so we know his upside is high.
Corey Conners (25-1)
We've had a lot of guys on this list who made the leap last year, but here's the first that could make the leap this year. Conners is coming off a good season, but many, including myself, think he's got another level. A win this week would certainly be a good sign that he's ready to take the next step. His track record here is pretty strong, with just one MC in seven starts and four top-15s in total. His best showing was a T3 in 2019, but again, this pick has more to do with a belief that he's going to step up his game even more this season.
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LONG SHOTS
Nick Taylor (35-1)
The first event of the season is always tough because we're missing a huge component to prognosticating and that's current form. Most of the players in the field have been off since at least November, so we have no way of knowing if they're coming in with good form, poor form, or no form at all. With that in mind, we need to lean heavily on course history, which is why I've got Taylor as a solid long-ish shot this week. Sure, betting on the defending champ is not usually a great idea, but his win last year didn't come out of nowhere. Taylor finished inside the top-10 in the two years leading up to that win, so it wasn't just a guy getting hot for a week, Taylor knows how to get around this course.
Nico Echavarria (35-1)
If you've happened upon my work over the past few years, you know this name. Echavarria started as a guy whose success mostly came during the fall, to one that evolved past that this past season. In order for that progression to continue, he'll need to have even more success during the regular season this year and that's exactly what I'm expecting. Echavarria finished runner-up here to Taylor last year, so we know he can get around this course. He also knows how to close as well, as evidence by his two wins on the PGA Tour.
ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES
Highly-Chosen Pick: J.J. Spaun – I've been over the field list more than a few times and I can honestly say that I have no clue which player is going to have the highest usage this week, but I think Spaun should catch a lot of attention. Remember that you need to save your best players for the signature events and the majors, so you're going to have a small group of guys that could be a signature pick, but might not be. I think Spaun fits that into that group because he's not so established that he's a lock for the bigger events, but if he's rolling, he could be an option in those weeks. With that said, when he's among the favorites at a non-signature event, he should be considered.
Moderately-Chosen Pick: Nick Taylor –Taylor is going to get some attention because he's the defending champ and his overall record here is strong. With that said, there are many OAD players that will not take the defending champ because of regression to the mean. I'm not one of those guys, if I feel the golfer is the right play, I'll make that move, regardless of whether he's defending.
Lightly-Chosen Pick: Nico Echavarria– If you plot our your picks for the season, you've got about 35 decisions to make this year. Does Echavarria make the top-35? Perhaps he doesn't, but I like to take it one event at a time, at least at the beginning, so for this week, he's an option if you want to stray from the pack. I doubt many OAD players will be on him this week, so this would be a spot where you can get out to a lead if he plays well.
Buyer Beware: Billy Horschel – Let me start by stating that it's tough to find someone for this category this early in the season because we have no form to look at. With that in mind, I'm taking a different route and using public perception. The steam that I've been seeing lately is that Horschel is in for a bounce-back season, and while I agree with that, I don't think it will start this week. Horschel's track record here is not good. He's missed the cut in three of eight starts and has just one top-10.
My Pick: Nick Taylor – There's something about the first pick of the season. So much trepidation and that's 100 percent due to having no idea how your golfer is feeling heading into the week. I'm one that generally leans more on track record vs. current form, but even I'm nervous this week because I just want to know how these guys are playing heading into the opener. With that said, Taylor seems like a safe play as he's landed inside the top-12 here in his past four starts and he, of course, won this event in 2025.
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FANDUEL PICKS
Upper Range: Hideki Matsuyama ($11,600)
Middle Range: Nick Taylor ($10,500)
Lower Range: Ryan Gerard ($8,900)
SURVIVOR LEAGUES
My Pick: Denny McCarthy – Again, with no current form, this get's really interesting. Normally I'd be all over a guy like Taylor, but as good as he's been here, he has missed a few cuts, which makes me nervous. One guy that hasn't missed a few cuts, in fact, he hasn't missed a single cut here, is McCarthy. Beyond being a perfect 4-for-4 here, McCarthy is one of the more reliable players on the PGA Tour, so I feel pretty good about this pick.
