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Valero Texas Open
The second leg of the Texas two-step will look quite a bit different than the first. After only 64 golfers teed it up in Austin for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, a full field will take on TPC San Antonio for 72 holes of traditional stroke play. This year marks the 100-year anniversary of the first Texas Open, which was won by Bob MacDonald in 1922. Arnold Palmer and Justin Leonard have won the most Texas Opens with three a piece. Jordan Spieth is the defending champion, and he snapped a nearly four-year winless drought with his victory here last year.
Profiling the Winner
TPC San Antonio has hosted the Valero Texas Open since 2010. It is a Greg Norman design, and he was consulted on the project by Sergio Garcia. The track offers players a mix of holes, with some featuring wide-open landing areas off the tees and others being narrow with tree-lined fairways. The rough here will be pretty manageable, so the key will be avoiding the trees and wide fairways bunkers. The greens are on the larger end and feature a lot of undulation. Accurate iron shots will be needed to avoid extremely long putts or tricky up-and-down's from closely-mown areas.
The winner finished 17-under-par or better in each of the last three editions, but the track this week should play firmer than it did in any of those tournaments. The traditional Texas winds will be present for most of the event, meaning striking the ball solidly will be of the utmost importance.
Category Picks
Premium Picks
Players Included: Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners
Guru Verdict: McIlroy is making his first appearance at the Valero Texas Open since he placed second back in 2013. He already has a win this year at The CJ Cup, and he could have won a couple other times since with some better final-round performances. Last year's Masters was the last time McIlroy missed a cut on the PGA Tour. Spieth may be the defending champion, but he has some big holes in his game at the moment. and I worry about fatigue for Conners, who played seven matches in five days in Austin.
Front-Runners
Players Included: Abraham Ancer, Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim, Adam Hadwin
Guru Verdict: Hadwin posted top-10 finishes in his last two starts and five top-26 results in his last seven tournaments. Hadwin ranks 32nd this season in SG: Tee-to-Green and is also 16th in GIR percentage. Kim is probably the next best option here, with finishes of T4-T23 his last two starts at TPC San Antonio.
Big Hitters
Players Included: Bryson DeChambeau, Rickie Fowler, Lanto Griffin, Gary Woodland, Tony Finau
Guru Verdict: This is probably the easiest category to call. There's only one player listed here that is in good form and that is Woodland. The former Kansas Jayhawk posted a pair of top-5s and a T21 in his last four starts. Woodland, who finished sixth here last year, is now top-45 on Tour in both SG: Putting Tee-to-Green.
Good Chances
Players Included: Keegan Bradley, Robert MacIntyre, Russell Knox, Patton Kizzire, Chris Kirk
Guru Verdict: A number of players in this group are flying under the radar this week, but Kirk stands out among them. The 36-year-old ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and went T14-T7-T5 before a missed cut at THE PLAYERS, which can mainly be attributed to that week's weather. Kirk has some nice history here, with four top-15 finishes at TPC San Antonio.
International Stars
Players Included: Matt Jones, Mito Pereira, Jason Day, Jhonattan Vegas, K.H. Lee, Rasmus Hojgaard
Guru Verdict: This is another close category, but Pereira's ball-striking numbers are just too good to overlook. He ranks 11th in SG: Approach, 22nd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 20th in GIR percentage. Pereira also has three top-30 finishes in his last four starts. Jones has the most course history here, while Vegas and Hojgaaard are coming off top-10s last week in Punta Cana.
Challengers
Players Included: Kevin Streelman, Davis Riley, Ryan Palmer, Brendan Steele, Scott Stallings, Sahith Theegala
Guru Verdict: Palmer and Steele both have extensive course history, but Streelman has also had some good showings here and is playing well right now. He posted top-25s in three of his last four starts overall and owns four top-15 finishes in six career starts at TPC San Antonio. Streelman is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and is top-20 in scrambling this season.
Contenders
Players Included: Takumi Kanaya, Denny McCarthy, Luke List, Martin Laird, Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman
Guru Verdict: No player in the field has better course history than Hoffman. In 11 career starts he owns a win, three runner-ups, and nine top-15s. The problem is that he has just one top-25 in 11 starts this season. I think Laird is a slightly better play, as he ranks top-25 on Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green and total driving. The Scot has a win at TPC San Antonio among four top-20s. List hasn't made a putt since his win at Torrey Pines, but he does currently lead the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Fan Favorites
Players Included: Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar, Chez Reavie, Charles Howell III, Dylan Frittelli
Guru Verdict: Kuchar easily has the best course history in this group, having made the cut in his last nine appearances and notching six top-25 results over that span. He is also coming off a T16 at the Valspar Championship in his last start. Kuchar profiles a little differently than some of the other players that have historically been strong here. This season he ranks second in both SG: Around-the-Green and scrambling, and he is also seventh in putts per round. Poulter has probably played the most consistent golf among the players this group, making seven of his last eight cuts and posting a pair of top-10s over that stretch.
The Selections
Premium Picks: Rory McIlroy
Front-Runners: Adam Hadwin
Big Hitters: Gary Woodland
Good Chances: Chris Kirk
International Stars: Mito Pereira
Challengers: Kevin Streelman
Contenders: Martin Laird
Fan Favorites: Matt Kuchar
