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THE PLAYERS Championship
This week's event, held in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, is the flagship event for the PGA Tour. It features the biggest single-event purse in golf, one that checks in at $20 million US dollars. The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass has hosted this tournament since 1982 and features perhaps the most infamous hole in all of golf -- the par-3 17th with its island green.
Profiling the Winner
TPC Sawgrass has a history of taking driver out of the hands of the golfers. At under 7,200 yards, the course plays relatively short by PGA Tour standards, which is why we see so many types of players contend. The key this week will be avoiding hazards off the tee, so accuracy will be far more important than distance.
The landing areas where most of the holes are cut will be much smaller than players saw in the first two legs of the Florida Swing at PGA National and Bay Hill. That will place an increased importance on iron play and distance control. TPC Sawgrass features a lot more runoff areas around the greens, which will be a big advantage for those that excel in the short game.
Players who teed it up the last two weeks should be familiar with the bermudagrass putting surfaces at TPC Sawgrass. Webb Simpson led the field in SG: Putting when he won THE PLAYERS in 2018, but since this event was moved to March a couple years back the winners finished 59th and 42nd in that department.
The weather forecast looks rather ominous, with rain expected to fall in each of the first three rounds. That will make the fairways and greens play much larger. The high winds expected over the weekend could very well be the only saving grace for the course.
Category Picks
Premium Picks
Players included: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland
Guru Verdict: Among this group, Thomas has had the most consistent success at TPC Sawgrass. He has made the cut in all six appearances and has notched four top-25s, including a win in 2019. He has the best short game among the elite players in this category, ranking 26th in SG: Around-the-Green and 10th in scrambling. Rahm is amid the worst putting stretch of his career and Hovland is now 216th in SG: Around-the-Green. Neither is a good sign at a course that requires a good deal of precision when in close.
World Elite
Players included: Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama
Guru Verdict: This is a tough category to call, but it is hard to look away from Cantlay. The man has four top-10s in five starts in 2022 and ranks top-25 on Tour in all of SG: Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green, Putting and Tee-to-Green. Schauffele has a very similar game to Cantlay in that both are great all the way through the bag. Schauffele has only one top-10 in six starts this season, though.
Front-Runners
Players included: Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka
Guru Verdict: It is tough to look past Scheffler, who won two of his last three starts, but there is another player in this category who has a better skill set for TPC Sawgrass. Berger grew up on this type of grass and is coming off a fourth-place finish at The Honda Classic. Berger hasn't missed a cut since his first appearance at THE PLAYERS and owns a pair of top-10 finishes. He is top-15 on Tour in a number of key stats, including SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, driving accuracy, GIR percentage, scrambling, sand saves and scoring average.
US Contenders
Players included: Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Sam Burns, Max Homa, Gary Woodland, Talor Gooch, Russell Henley
Guru Verdict: Gooch posted a T7 last week at Bay Hill despite a poor final round. He brings an impressive blend of iron play and short game, ranking 14th in SG: Approach and seventh in SG: Around-the-Green this season. Gooch scored a top-5 finish at TPC Sawgrass last year. Henley has a very similar profile as Gooch, but he missed his last three cuts at Sawgrass. Horschel is a Florida native who finished top-16 in his last four starts and is hoping to finally break through in his home state.
International Stars
Players included: Sungjae Im, Louis Oosthuizen, Abraham Ancer, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman, Corey Conners
Guru Verdict: Im has played well in Florida in his brief career and ranks near the top in a number of important categories. He sits 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 12th in SG: Around-the-Green, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 17th in GIR percentage and third in scrambling. Im finished T17 last year in this tournament. Conners remains one of the top ball strikers in the world, and he heads to a place where he notched a T7 a year ago on the heels of a T11 at Bay Hill.
Ryder Cup Heroes
Players included: Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Paul Casey, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose
Guru Verdict: Fitzpatrick is rolling, with top-10 finishes in three straight starts. The Englishman ranks 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 17th in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Putting and seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. Fitzpatrick is a great fit for TPC Sawgrass and posted a top-10 on this track last year. Lowry seems to always play well in the blustery conditions that are anticipated this week and posted a runner-up finish at The Honda Classic. Casey has been very hit-or-miss at THE PLAYERS, making just 5-of-13 cuts. However, he finished top-25 each time he played the weekend, including last year when he posted a T5.
Previous Winners
Players included: Webb Simpson, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar
Guru Verdict: Each of these golfers owns a strong track record at TPC Sawgrass. Scott is playing the best among them right now. The Aussie is coming off at T4 at Riviera followed by a T26 at Bay Hill. Scott's weakness throughout his career has been on the greens, but it has been the best part of his game this season, as he ranks 15th on Tour in SG: Putting. Simpson is coming off an injury and hasn't played since the Sony Open in Hawaii in early January.
DP World Tour Raiders
Players included: Alex Noren, Ian Poulter, Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood, Thomas Pieters, Matt Wallace
Guru Verdict: This is another very close category, but the edge goes to Noren thanks to his two top-6 finishes over his last three starts. En route to his T5 at The Honda Classic two weeks ago, the Swede ranked seventh in SG: Approach, eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green and T2 in GIR. Westwood's six top-10s at TPC Sawgrass are more than any player in this group, and he posted a runner-up in this event last year.
Editor's Note: Here's more PickGuru advice from Len Hochberg:
Ryan's Selections
Premium Picks: Justin Thomas
World Elite: Patrick Cantlay
Front-Runners: Daniel Berger
US Contenders: Talor Gooch
International Stars: Sungjae Im
Ryder Cup Heroes: Matt Fitzpatrick
Previous Winners: Adam Scott
DP World Tour Raiders: Alex Noren
