U.S. Open One and Done Picks
The U.S. Open is the ultimate test of shot-making, mental strength and execution. There is almost zero forgiveness on a course as difficult as Shinnecock Hills. One poor shot can lead to a big number, and even a decent shot can at times be punished severely with all the false edges and giant slopes. Players have to let go of the last shot and look forward to the next one. Given the expected high winds in the forecast, the true grinders in golf are primed to shine.
With this being the third major of the year, both the PGA Tour season and the One-and-Done seasons are beginning to wind down. If you don't already own a prominent spot in your league's standings, this will be one of your last opportunities to really make a move.
The official purse for the 2026 U.S .Open will be announced later in the week, but it will likely only go up from the $21.5 million purse from a year ago, which featured a $4.3 million check to the winner.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club (7,440 yards, par 70)
- Location: Southhampton, New York
- Purse: $21.5 million -- $4.3 million to winner
- Defending Champion: J.J. Spaun (-1)
- 2025 Scoring Average at Oakmont: 74.18 (+4.18)
- 2025 36-Hole Cut: +7
- 2018 U.S. Open Champion at Shinnecock: Brooks Koepka (+1)
- 2018 Scoring Average at Shinnecock: 74.65 (+4.65)
- 2018 36-Hole Cut: +8
- Average U.S. Open Winning Score Last 5 Years: -5.8
The last major championship to feature a winning score over par was back in 2018 -- the last time the U.S. Open was contested at Shinnecock Hills. That week saw one of the most difficult Saturdays ever at a major championship. In the end, Koepka was able to hold on and win at one-over, escaping a hard-charging Tommy Fleetwood, who shot a 63 in an epic final round.
This week the test is expected to be just as difficult, especially considering the windy conditions that are forecasted throughout the tournament. Players will have to be very creative on how they shape shots into greens and where they miss it.
The fairways will play as wide as ever for a U.S. Open at Shinnecock, as they will utilize the width they use the rest of the year for the members. While the course could be a little more forgiving off the tee, the angles are still important to set up an approach that allows you to stop the ball close to the hole. The greens are some of the largest on the PGA Tour in terms of surface area, but play as some of the smallest given the amount of slope and the firmness of the ground. Combine that with all the wind, and it will be the most demanding approach play test we have seen in some time. The top iron players on Tour will be licking their chops.
Because of all the difficulty on approach, players will have a ton of scrambling opportunities. For the most part, missing the putting surfaces will result in a shot off short grass back up the slope to an elevated green. Those type of shots leave players deciding whether to bump it into the hill, fly it all the way to the surface -- or even putt it up. Unlike at Oakmont last year where a missed green kept the ball close to the putting surface with long rough, missing by a foot at Shinnecock could take your ball 20-to-30 yards away from the putting surface. The best and most confident short-game players will have a major advantage.
Putting can't be overlooked either. Matching line and speed will be crucial on these slippery surfaces. We will see bunches of defensive putts inside of 10 feet when players find their ball above the hole. There will be no shortage of three-putts. Because of the wind, these severe greens will need to be slowed down so that they are still playable. The poa in the greens can create a bumpy surface that makes putts tough to keep on line. The best bet is to strike the ball well and keep the ball below the hole so you can hit firm putts and try to avoid some of the inconsistencies on the surfaces. At the end of the day, everyone is going to miss short putts. That goes back to the mental side of the test when it comes to moving on and focusing on the next shot.
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U.S. Open: One and Done Picks
It came down to Scottie Scheffler and Rahm. They're the only two big names I have left. And Scheffler is usable later, maybe in the playoffs. Rahm is not a bad consolation prize. He finished runner-up at the PGA Championship last month and posted a top-10 in three of the past five majors. With greater freedom off the tee than at traditional narrow U.S. Open venues, Rahm should be in the mix again. --Len Hochberg
Earlier in his career this was not the type of test that McIlroy excelled at. In fact, he missed the cut the last time the U.S. Open was held here in 2018. Now I think he is a much more well-rounded player that is able to thrive in very challenging conditions. His performance on the weekend at the Masters when his ball striking wasn't quite there speaks a lot to his evolution. McIlroy has the short-game shots to lean on when he needs them, and his control on approach is the best it has ever been. He finished top-10 in six of his last seven U.S. Open starts, and the extra room off the tee at Shinnecock should make his length even more of an advantage. --Ryan Andrade
Do I think he's going to win? No. Do I think he can win? Yes. We all watched the 2020 and 2024 U.S. Opens. Do I think folks are overreacting to two missed cuts at the Masters and the PGA Championship earlier this year? Yes. It's still +EV to utilize LIV players --plus Patrick Reed -- when viable at majors, so while the discourse around DeChambeau is almost entirely negative, now's the time to consider pouncing on what should be deflated OAD ownership. If he implodes again, a missed cut in this format isn't much more detrimental to your season-long earnings than a T20, especially in large pools. DeChambeau's upside at significantly reduced popularity is what matters from a macro perspective, especially considering there's only one other opportunity to deploy him after this week. --Bryce Danielson
I really like Justin Thomas, but I'm going with the more reliable Schauffele in this spot. Outside of Scheffler, I don't think there is a safer pick on the board. Schaufele has never missed a cut at the U.S. Open and has finished top-10 seven times. He has not won a U.S. Open, but he is a two-time major winner, so it could be just a matter of time before he captures this tournament. His form is a little suspect, but he did post a top-10 at the PGA Championship. He's going to be a popular play, so if you're looking to gain a lot of ground you may want to go elsewhere. --Greg Vara
Rahm backed up a pair of 2026 LIV wins with a T2 at the PGA Championship -- his third top-10 finish across his last five major starts. He ranks sixth among this field in SG: Total over the last 24 rounds, and Shinnecock suits players like Rahm who can shape the ball both ways and scramble when trouble arises. While his missed cut here in 2018 is hard to overlook, enough has changed since. Rahm seems primed to make a statement on one of the biggest stages he has left to conquer. --Lauren Jump
If Henley is to ever win a major, this feels like the spot. He won two starts back at Colonial, posted a T3 at Augusta and has back-to-back top-10s at the U.S. Open. His lack of distance isn't a detriment like it tends to be at the Masters or PGA Championship setups, and he is well above average in every other aspect of the game. If you still have Henley left, the Travelers Championship is also a reasonable spot to use him, otherwise you're taking your chances in one of the playoff events. --Ryan Pohle
Reed is focusing solely on the majors at this point -- a plan that is working rather well with results of T12 at the Masters and T10 at the PGA Championship. With only two PGA Tour appearances this season it's tough to build a statistical case for him, but over everyone's last 24 rounds -- eight for Reed -- he does rank 12th in this field in SG: Total. He only has one top-10 over 11 career U.S. Open appearances, but it came at Shinnecock in 2018, and he has only missed the weekend once. This week's conditions look less than ideal, and that should favor a grinder like Reed. I expect Captain America to bring it at his national championship. --Kevin O'Brien
U.S. Open: One and Done Fades
As great as Kim has played this season, he's still been coming up short in the biggest tournaments, as has been the case most of his career. To be precise, he went T50-47-T35 at THE PLAYERS, Masters and PGA Championship. Not good. He has finished top-25 in the U.S. Open just once, and that was way back in 2017. --Len Hochberg
Young is unsurprisingly one of the favorites on the betting board, but he only graded out 16th in my model for Shinnecock Hills, and that seemed to be consistent amongst other models I looked through. While the iron play and short game have been better this year, those are two areas that historically have been inconsistent for Young, especially when conditions are at the toughest. There are plenty others playing better who also profile better for this course. --Ryan Andrade
The obvious "fade" is Koepka and the accompanying injuries that forced him to withdraw from last week's RBC Canadian Open, so I will go elsewhere and whine about Burns' complete lack of gumption. Sure, he placed top-10 at the U.S. Open each of the last two years, but he has taken a mighty fall in my Strokes Gained: Dawg/Heart rankings, remaining without a stroke-play victory since the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge. He took an iron off the tee to lay up on the 72nd hole while sniffing contention at Pebble Beach earlier this season, and he just played the final 36 holes at TPC Toronto in a pathetic even par to lose by EIGHT shots to first-time PGA Tour winner Bud Cauley. One-and-Done is primarily a ceiling/win equity game, and Burns isn't that guy against an elite field at Shinnecock Hills. --Bryce Danielson
There's some steam on DeChambeau because he's a two-time winner of the U.S. Open. The wider fairways at Shinnecock should help his cause, but I'm just not sure his game is anywhere close to where it needs to be to contend at a major. He was so far off at both the Masters and the PGA Championship that I wonder if there's something going on either mentally or physically. He has looked fine out there, but the mental part would be explainable as the league he has touted for years is crumbling before his eyes. --Greg Vara
Koepka withdrew before the final round at the Canadian Open after losing feeling in his ring finger and pinkie, making it impossible to maintain a proper grip. While he arrived at Shinnecock without an official diagnosis and his 2018 win here is compelling, the injury concerns linger enough to hold off. --Lauren Jump
Young is likely going to be a trendy pick considering his ties to the area and his big wins this year at THE PLAYERS and the Signature Event at Doral. That was part of a hot stretch this spring in which he posted a top-10 in 6-of-7 starts. However, he failed to post even a top-25 in his last two starts, giving some cause for concern. I also can't ignore that this has statistically been his worst major, with only one top-25 across six appearances. --Ryan Pohle
Conners has fared well in windy conditions, approaches the green better than most and has six career top-10 finishes in major championships, so he could have some sleeper vibes. However, the U.S. Open has not been kind to him, as although he posted a T9 in 2024 he missed the weekend in all six of his other tries. The oddsmakers have taken notice and you should as well. --Kevin O'Brien
Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.
