This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
3M Open
Course: TPC Twin Cities (7,431 yards, par 71)
Purse: $7,800,000
Winner: $1,400,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
With the final major of the season now in the review mirror, the focus now shifts to the FedExCup playoffs. There is added urgency with the playoff field being reduced from 125 players to 70 players this season and the Top 50 players at the conclusion of the first of three playoff events being locked into the 2024 designated events. That leads us to the 3M Open which is the penultimate event of the 2022-23 regular season and a prime opportunity for those needing to make a move in the standings.
This will be the third straight year that the 3M Open has been the first event after the Open Championship. That will mean a number of players will be flying back across the Atlantic after a long week, or two weeks if they played in the Scottish Open as well. Fatigue will be a factor at this stage in the season, but players will need to do their best to be focused on every shot around this course where danger is lurking all over.
Cameron Young is the highest ranked player in the field at No. 15 and is coming off playing in the final pairing on Sunday at Royal Liverpool. Tony Finau is the next highest ranked player at No. 19 and is the defending champion. Last year Finau won the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic in back-to-back weeks. A late add to this event was Justin Thomas who currently sits 75th in the FedExCup standings and has missed the cut in four of his last six starts. Sepp Straka and Emiliano Grillo have wins in the last couple months and come in off top-6 finishes at the Open Championship. Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, and Ludvig Aberg highlight some of the other notables.
It's going to be a pretty steamy week in Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open. Temperatures will reach up to the mid-90's throughout the week and carry distances are going to be so much further than we saw last week in cold and rainy conditions at Hoylake. There's always a chance we could see an afternoon storm go through the area and it appears the first round is the most likely time. That could really soften the course and potentially lead to someone challenging Matthew Wolff's 21-under record score in the inaugural 3M Open in 2019. That being said, gusty winds are always something to watch here and have caught players off guard in past editions of this tournament.
Recent Champions
2022 - Tony Finau (-17)
2021 - Cameron Champ (-15)
2020 - Michael Thompson (-19)
2019 - Matthew Wolff (-21)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Birdie Average
Champion's Profile
From the air, TPC Twin Cities resembles a lot of courses in Florida that meander through a gated community. Water is in play on a whopping 13 holes. That obvious danger leads to a lot of scoring variability on a course where if you keep the ball in play, you will have a lot of chances at birdies and eagles. Accuracy off-the-tee I think holds a lot of value, but with winners like Finau, Champ and Wolff, clearly it will be an advantage to get it way out there as well.
Bentgrass blankets the entire property and last year the rough was allowed to grow up to four inches, which made the course play more difficult. SG: Off-the-Tee will likely be the most important stat this week because the greens are relatively spacious and simple for PGA Tour standards. If you can get it down there and in the fairways, it will be very hard to hide any hole locations. The greens will run at a very comfortable 12 on the Stimpmeter and is a great place for any player in a slump with the putter to find something.
Given how far the ball is going to carry, players should see a lot of wedge opportunities and taking a peek into the proximity numbers in the 100-125 or 125-150 yard ranges wouldn't be a bad idea. Players won't have the luxury of wedges on the par-3s, however, and those four holes could play as some of the most difficult on the course.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Cameron Young ($11,900)
I listed off some of the winners at TPC Twin Cities earlier and Young would fit perfectly into that group. He is one of the best drivers in the world and ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee on the season. After a middling early part of the season, Young has now finished top-10 in back-to-back starts. He led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach at the Open Championship and will hope a return to these bentgrass greens will yield some better results with the putter.
Gary Woodland ($10,800)
Woodland has been one of the best ball strikers on Tour this season, ranking 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 10th in SG: Approach and 16th in total driving. The issue has been the flat stick, as he ranks 186th in SG: Putting. I'm inclined to give Woodland a chance this week considering he should keep himself out of all the trouble and these are pretty simple greens to putt on. The former Kansas standout has a T11 in his only prior start at the 3M Open in 2021 and has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 starts overall.
Nicolai Hojgaard ($10,200)
Hojgaard has played 16 times this season across both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. Considering the difficulty of doing that, the Dane has done a really nice job racking up five top-10 finishes and ten top-35 finishes. Hojgaard is on special temporary status and could lock up his card for 2024 with a good finish to this season. He can absolutely crush the ball and ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in proximity from 125-150 yards, which I think is where a lot of his approaches will come from at TPC Twin Cities.
Lucas Glover ($10,000)
Glover is on a heater right now and is actually a bit cheaper than I expected. He has finished inside the top-6 in this last three starts and shot a combined 57-under-par during that stretch. Even at age 43 his ball striking has not skipped a beat. Glover ranks 10th in driving accuracy, 25th in SG: Approach, 25th in GIR percentage and first in proximity to the hole. The short game and putting have been pretty awful this season, but he led the field in scrambling at the Barbasol and was fifth in SG: Putting at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Longer Shots with Value
Aaron Rai ($9,700)
Rai has really seemed to adapt his game to PGA Tour venues, so a missed cut at the Scottish Open in his last start doesn't concern me. Prior to that he had a five-start stretch that read T12-MC-T3-T24-T9. While he isn't a long hitter, Rai will keep himself out of trouble, as evidenced by his top-5 position in the driving accuracy category. The Englishman is also 13th in GIR percentage and ninth in par-4 scoring average this season.
Vincent Norrman ($9,600)
Norrman is really starting to figure things out on the PGA Tour. He prevailed in a playoff at the Barbasol Championship which is one of eight top-25 finishes in his last 14 starts. He profiles very well for TPC Twin Cities ranking 31st in SG: Off-the-Tee, 20th in total driving, 14th in GIR percentage and 20th in birdie average. In a time with a lot of really impressive players who are 25 and under, Norrman is putting himself in the mix as one of the best.
Austin Eckroat ($9,300)
Eckroat struggled in his last couple starts, but we're not that far removed from a 7-for-7 stretch in which he racked up a runner-up at the Byron Nelson and top-10 at the U.S. Open. Eckroat has gained strokes off-the-tee in nine of his last ten starts and has shown the ability to pop with the putter on occasion as well. If the iron play stays solid, I don't see how Eckroat isn't on the first couple pages of the leaderboard come Sunday on a course he finished T16 at in 2021 when he wasn't close to the player he is now.
Doug Ghim ($8,900)
Ghim I think has a very similar game to Rai, and he comes at a little cheaper price and in equally good form. Prior to a missed cut at the Scottish Open he had six straight finishes inside the top-35. Ghim ranks 17th in driving accuracy, 27th in total driving, 12th in GIR percentage, 26th in scrambling and 14th in par-3 scoring average this season. He also has some nice history at the 3M Open, with a pair of top-20 finishes in three starts.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is definitely a week for balance in lineups. The top of the board is pretty weak, but the $9K-$11K range is filled with a lot of really high upside players at this course. I think great drivers of the ball are going to really have an advantage around TPC Twin Cities, so Ludvig Aberg ($10,500), Keith Mitchell ($10,300), Ryan Fox ($9,400), and Lee Hodges ($9,100) are a few other names in that sweet spot that I will likely put into a few lineups as well. If your looking for a few options a little further down the board I'd take a flier on Will Gordon ($8,500), Chesson Hadley ($8,300), Ryan Gerard ($7,900), or Chad Ramey ($7,800). I'm not touching Tony Finau ($12,000) or Justin Thomas ($11,400) until they start putting together some more consistent results.
Feeling a 3M Open wager on FanDuel? Check out the FanDuel Promo Code!
