This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC
Purse: $8.8M
Winner's Share: $1.584M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Detroit
Course: Detroit Golf Club (North course)
Yardage: 7,370
Par: 72
2022 Champion: Tony Finau
Tournament Preview
Welcome to the first week of the rest of the PGA Tour season.
Things will look a bit different the rest of the way. Last week was the final designated event of 2023. Five of the next six weeks will feature old-fashioned regular tournaments, with the Open Championship tucked in the middle, and the it will be playoff time.
While some of the fields will be meh -- sorry, John Deere Classic, we're looking at you -- some will be surprisingly robust. Which brings us to the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Get a load of this "regular" field: Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, defending champion Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Keegan Bradley, 2021 winner Cam Davis and three youngsters we've been hearing about and writing about and will continue to hear more about in Ludvig Aberg, Sam Bennett and amateur Gordon Sargent.
No, it's not designated, but it's not too shabby. To be honest, the field is top heavy with name guys and falls off pretty far and pretty fast. That's not to say there won't be some value lower down in the $7,000s and $6,000s.
Fowler is the headliner in this 156-man contingent, which is getting to be a weekly thing as he returns to prominence. He's the big Rocket Mortgage pitchman, so that's why he's playing. But what are the others doing here? Well, no one wants to take a long break before a major. Don't expect any of the previously mentioned guys to tee it up next week at the Deere, save maybe the three youngsters, and some may also sit out the Scottish Open the following week leading up to the Open.
This will be the best field in the history of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Of course, that's not saying a whole lot since this is only the fifth year. The giant mortgage lender has already committed to stick around through at least 2027, and it's great news for the PGA Tour these days any time they can find a sponsor who doesn't want to go month to month.
Three of the first four editions at Detroit Golf Club were big-time birdie-fests, with Nate Lashley winning at 25-under in 2019, Bryson DeChambeau at 23-under in 2020 and Finau topping out at 26-under last year. The first two had 5-under cut lines, while last year it was 3-under. (In between, Cam Davis won in 2021 at 18-under.)
Detroit Golf Club has been around since 1899. Its two 18-hole courses were completed in 1916, both built by famed architect Donald Ross. The North, the longer of the two tracks, is used for the tournament, save for one hole from the South. That will be No. 3 this week. The club's website describes the North this way: "It features narrow, tree-lined fairways, which make club selection an important part of the round. The undulating greens and treacherous bunkering ensures you bring your a-game all the way up to the pin." Gosh, they actually make it sound hard.
Despite the website description, the fairways are not that narrow. Yes, there are a lot of trees and there are some holes with strategically placed fairway bunkers, but it's also very flat. There are in fact many bunkers guarding the greens (87 total on the course) and severe undulations on the smallish bengtrass/poa putting surfaces (averaging 5,150 square feet) moving back to front with runoffs. But none of it has affected the scores all that much, and golfers were hitting the greens in regulation around 80% of the time. There's water on just one hole, the par-5, 555-yard 14th. That's one of three gettable par-5s of under 580; there are also four par-4s under 400 -- the golfers will be throwing darts on those holes -- and two par-3s under 170. On the other hand, there's a 233-yard par-3 (the 11th) and a 635-yard par-5 (the 4th). Seven holes played over par last year, five of which were on the back-nine, including the par-3 15th and two longish pars-4s in 16 and 18, offering some hope for a challenging finish.
The golf course played among the 10 easiest on Tour in its first two years and just outside the top-10 the past two years. The opportunity for disaster is lower here than most courses, so we'll be targeting aggressive golfers with great birdie numbers. There were only 106 over-par rounds all week last year, when a high number of guys, 75, made the cut.
The official golf course superintendents' sheet noted that the tournament was played a month later last year (end of July) and that the "course should play firmer this year due to very dry spring weather."
As for the weather, a big storm system moved in this week, dropping more than an inch of rain and knocking down trees. The course will play very soft. Going forward, there's a decent chance of more rain on Friday and Saturday, though not enough right now to favor one side of the draw. You might want to check the updated forecast before the lock. High temperatures will be in the low 80s and the winds will be on the lighter side.
Key Stats to Winning at Detroit Golf Club
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach/SG: Tee-to-Green/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie Average/Birdie or Better Percentage
Past Champions
2022 - Tony Finau
2021 - Cam Davis
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau
2019 - Nate Lashley
Champion's Profile
If you examine the leaders in Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green from last year, it almost mirrors the top of the leaderboard. Those stats are almost arguably the two most important indicators of success, but rarely is there that much of an overlap with the leaderboard. Eleven of the top-12 in Approach landed in the top-16 on the leaderboard, as did all 12 in T2G. Finau, normally a long hitter, ranked only 34th in driving distance. But he was third in fairways hit, leading to No. 1 in greens in regulation, sixth in SG: Approach and first in T2G. He was 15th in SG: Putting, which for him is outstanding. There's no way to get to 26-under without making putts. Two years ago, there was a mix atop the leaderboard of T2G mavens and putting stalwarts. In a birdie-fest, you always have to make putts, sure, but when your irons are laser-like you get a little more leeway. Driving distance didn't impede Finau, but right behind him Patrick Cantlay and Cameron Young ranked fifth and seventh. And of course DeChambeau let fly during his 2020 win. Here's this little nugget from the PGA Tour's Media Guide: "DeChambeau became the first winner in the ShotLink era (since 2003) to lead the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Putting. He also led the field in Driving Distance (350.6 yards) and Par-4 Scoring Average (3.68)." That seems like a good way to win -- do something no one has ever done before. Seriously, DeChambeau blasted it off the tee, yet ranked only 58th in fairways hit, but it didn't matter. His worst score all week was 67. Lashley ran away by six strokes. He had two rounds of 63, so he tied the course record TWICE. The over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com is 263.5, which is 20.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Rickie Fowler - $10,400 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1400)
Fowler plays here every year, and it hasn't been great. But he hasn't been great the past few years. He's a different golf this year, and this week priced higher than Homa and Thomas, among others. Fowler ranks No. 1 in our model using the key stats listed above.
Max Homa - $10,200 (+1800)
This is a bit of a leap of faith based on who Homa has been this season and not on who he has been of late. He did show signs on Friday at the Travelers, but missed the cut by one after digging himself too big of a hole on Thursday. Homa has played here three of the four years and made every cut, with top-25s the past two years.
Tom Kim - $9,800 (+1800)
Putting has been the biggest issue for Kim in his second year on Tour. But his approach play has been so good lately we think he can succeed in this field. He's ranked fifth in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds. Even with his putting issues, he's ranked 39th on Tour in birdie or better. Kim played here last year in one of his first PGA Tour events and tied for seventh.
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,600 (+1600)
Matsuyama is clearly the most accurate ball striker and tee-to-green player in this field. He's not the best putter, but he's certainly capable of having good weeks and he has in the past. His neck injury finally appears to be a thing of the past. Matsuyama has made nine straight cuts going back to THE PLAYERS, six of them top-25s. He finished 13th here in 2020 and 21st the next year.
Tier 2 Values
Brian Harman - $8,800 (+4000)
Harman was great last week -- but he's always great at the Travelers. He was pretty good the week before at the U.S. Open, showing signs of emerging from a 2023-long slump. Harman is sneaky long for his stature and is among the best putters in the field.
Ludvig Aberg - $8,700 (+4500)
Aberg is likely to be a popular play in all formats, even one-and-done. He's the new flavor of the month. The former No. 1-ranked amateur has finished top-25 in his two pro starts at the Canadian Open and Travelers. In last week's designated event, he ranked third in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee, 24h in Tee-to-Green and 38th in Putting.
Austin Eckroat - $8,000 (+5000)
In a three-month span from late January to late April, Eckroat played nine events and missed eight cuts. Since then he's played in seven events and missed zero cuts. They have been regular tournaments, designated events and even a major (T10 at the U.S. Open). Eckroat's turnaround has been remarkable. One key has been his driving. He doesn't hit it especially far but he is very straight.
Tier 3 Values
Aaron Rai - $7,900 (+5500)
Rai tied for 12th at the Charles Schwab, for third at the Canadian Open and for 24th last week at the Travelers. His iron play has been exceptional -- every bit as good as his putting has been bad. But he still was able to get to 16-under in Canada. He's 18th in this field in birdie or better over this past 24 rounds.
Gordon Sargent - $7,500 (+7000)
It's not often (or ever) that we pick a player ranked outside the top 1,000 in the world -- yes, that's three zeros. But the 20-year-old Sargent is $7,500 and 70 to 1, and not $6,000 and 500 to 1, for a reason. He was the 2022 NCAA Division I individual champion out of Vanderbilt. He missed the cut at the Masters, then qualified for the U.S. Open and tied for 39th to win low amateur. Sargent has only six rounds to examine -- a very small sample size -- but he landed at No. 29 in our model.
Brandon Wu - $7,500 (+7000)
Wu has been all or nothing so far in 2023. In 16 tournaments, he has six top-25s and seven missed cuts. Among those top-25s were a runner-up at Pebble Beach, third-place at Mexico and, more recently, T9 at the Canadian Open. All this tells us he's aggressive -- sometimes it works out, often times it doesn't. Wu is ranked 30th on Tour in birdie average and 42nd in birdie or better percentage. He tied for 30th here last year.
Doug Ghim - $7,400 (+7500)
Ghim arrives amid the best stretch of his young career -- top-25s in his past three starts, including T15 at the designated Travelers. His season-long stats are an eyesore, but over his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 11th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 19th in birdie or better.
Carson Young - $7,000 (+13000)
Young has finally made it out of the $6,000s -- barely. All its taken are top-25s in three of his past five starts, including T15 last week at the Travelers. He is ranked third in this field in both putting and birdie or better over his past 24 rounds.
Long-Shot Values
Ben Martin - $6,900 (+13000)
Martin is our top-ranked guy in the $6,000s. We tabbed him last week and he made the cut, rewarding our faith even though he had missed two of his previous three cuts. He's ranked 18th on Tour in SG: Approach and is 41st in birdie average. Martin tied for 24th here last year.
Andrew Novak - $6,900 (+18000)
Novak had made seven cuts in a row before missing last week at the Travelers. Two of those were top-10s. His weakness is off the tee, but he gets progressively better closer to the hole, ranking 30th on Tour in SG: Putting. Novak is ranked 16th on Tour in a stat called "going for the green, birdie or better," which measures aggressive play.
Scott Piercy - $6,700 (+25000)
Piercy has withdrawn from this week's event
Piercy, you may recall, withdrew before the second round last week with a back injury. Since he's in the field, we'll gamble that he's okay. Previously, he had made four of five cuts and went pretty low at the Byron Nelson, reaching 16-under to tie for 19th. The 44-year-old Piercy is ranked 30th on tour in birdie or better and 44th in birdie average.
Troy Merritt - $6,500 (+18000)
Merritt tied for 65th at the Sony back in January and since then has missed 14 straight cuts -- yes, you read that right. But he's also finished T14, T2 and T8 the past three years at the Rocket Mortgage. If there's a course horse here, it's Merritt. If anything will snap him out of his slump -- and perhaps "slump" is too generous for 14 MCs in a row -- it's Detroit Golf Club. We shall see.
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