Valero Texas Open Betting Preview
The final event before next week's first major championship of the year at Augusta National heads to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. TPC San Antonio has hosted the event since 2010 and there's one spot left in The Masters for the winner (if not already qualified). World No. 4 and tournament favorite Tommy Fleetwood (+1425) headlines the 132 player field that includes eight of the top-20 players in the OWGR. Last year, longshot Brian Harman (80-1) won by three shots over Ryan Gerard for his fourth Tour victory.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday
Course Overview
Par 72, 7,438 yards
These are the average rankings of Valero Texas Open champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 21.2
- SG: Approach: 6.2
- SG: Around-the-Green: 14.0
- SG: Putting: 18.6
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.0
- Driving Distance: 25.6
- Driving Accuracy: 27.4
TPC San Antonio has seen a wide variety in winning scores, from 20-under two years ago to nine-under last year. Windy conditions are often the determining factor in that, and based on the weather forecast, scores may be higher over the final two rounds. Off the tee, players are faced with narrow fairways that average approximately 27 yards wide and are surrounded by oak trees that put more of a premium on accuracy over distance. The main scoring opportunities are the four par-5s, and even though they all played under-par last year, they are not easy with three of them playing over 590 yards. If the wind calms down, the back-nine is more scoreable, most notably the driveable par-4 17th. We can see from the stats above that tee to green play stands out with the winner leading the field in the category in two of the last three years. Overall, I prefer targeting accurate drivers, players that are good with their wedge approaches (inside 125 yards) and good scramblers due to the difficulty of hitting greens in regulation.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC San Antonio over the last five years (minimum eight rounds played):
- Jordan Spieth: 70.0
- Denny McCarthy: 70.1
- Brian Harman: 70.4
- Lucas Glover: 70.4
- Brendon Todd: 70.5
2021 champion Spieth tops the list as the Texas native has enjoyed his fair share of success at the event having made seven straight cuts here with five top-15s during that stretch. That's mainly been due to his iron play, where he's gaining 1.1 strokes on approach per round here since 2021. Spieth has yet to record a top-10 through seven starts this year but does have three top-15s across his last four. Right behind him on the list is McCarthy (44-1), who notably birdied the final seven holes in the final round two years ago but ultimately lost in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia. Now in his ninth season on Tour, he's still in search of his first win and has struggled to maintain his form with just one top-25 dating back to last year's playoffs. Nevertheless, his game fits this course well as evidenced by three consecutive top-20s here.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:
- Tommy Fleetwood: 1.70
- Si Woo Kim: 1.61
- Sepp Straka: 1.36
- Keith Mitchell: 1.35
- Ryo Hisatsune: 1.35
Fleetwood has been dialed in from tee to green this year, where he ranks fifth in the category and is leading the Tour in SG: Around-the-green. Granted, he's played a light schedule but still has three top-10s despite not putting it anywhere nearly as well as he's used to. Fleetwood ranked fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green in his debut here two years ago and it's easy to see why the oddsmakers have him as the man to beat at TPC San Antonio. Meanwhile, Kim only trails Rory McIlroy from tee to green on the season which has led to five top-15s, although his results have tailed off slightly as of late. A two-week break after he played eight of the first nine events should get him back to that early season form, and this will be his ninth appearance at the event, where he has a best finish of T4.
Valero Texas Open Bets: Outright Picks
Russell Henley (+1750)
Henley skipped this event last year after finishing fourth the year prior in which he was second in SG: Approach. His consistency is unmatched - dating back to last year's Memorial Tournament, he's finished outside the top 20 once. It's only a matter of time before he wins again.
Robert MacIntyre (18-1)
MacIntyre has three wins over the last two years (two PGAT, one DPWT), so he knows how to get it done when he's in the mix. He's only played the event once before, posting a T35 in 2022, and he's come a long way since then. MacIntyre is coming off a solo fourth at TPC Sawgrass three weeks ago.
Ryo Hisatsune (37-1)
Hisatsune is coming off a much-needed week off after playing nine of the first 10 tournaments to start the year. We've seen him near the top of leaderboards often this year with three top-10s, and he was third in SG: Tee-to-green at THE PLAYERS. Hisatsune posted a top-10 here last year as well.
Valero Texas Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Matt Wallace (11-2)
Wallace hasn't had the best year but with that comes value. He's made three of his last four cuts and is gaining strokes from tee to green. Wallace led the field in SG: Approach in his event debut in 2021 en route to a solo third finish.
S.H. Kim (+730)
Kim missed this event last year as he was on the Korn Ferry Tour, but he previously posted a top-15 in both of his appearances. He's had a solid year with three top-20s, and the 27-year-old will look to make the most of his final event before heading to Korea for military service.
Takumi Kanaya (+1175)
Hitting fairways will be key this week and there aren't many drivers more accurate than Kanaya. The short-game specialist has made five of his last six cuts, highlighted by a T17 at PGA National. His scrambling ability will come in handy at a venue that is difficult to hit greens in regulation at a high frequency.
Valero Texas Open Bets: First Round Leader
Doug Ghim (96-1)
Ghim has the advantage of going out in the morning wave when the winds will be calmer, and he's coming off his best finish at the event last year across five appearances with a T18 in which he was sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Valero Texas Open Bets: To Make The Cut
Kevin Streelman (-108)
Streelman is trending in the right direction following a slow start to the year, having made three cuts in a row that includes a top-10 in Puerto Rico. The veteran has made the cut in all nine of his appearances at TPC San Antonio.
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