Week 9 Observations

This article is part of our NFL Observations series.

When Justin Tucker kicked a 66-yard field goal that hit the crossbar and went through, keeping our $6M Circa Survivor entry alive, Dalton Del Don and I joked that we were a "Team of Destiny." This joke persisted through the Pats-Texans game where the Texans led 22-9 in the third quarter and the character-building Chiefs-Giants game, where DDD steered us off the more highly-favored Bengals against the Mike White Jets. 

But this week might have taken the cake. We had already used the Bills, Colts and Rams, and while the Cowboys were by far the biggest favorite available to us, both of us had a bad feeling about them. But the pivot was far from obvious -- Steelers, Saints or Dolphins (we had already used the Ravens.) 

We initially liked the 1-7 Dolphins getting a doormat (Texans) on whom they could take out their frustrations, but their QB Tua Tagovailoa was questionable with a finger injury, and Tyrod Taylor was taking over for Davis Mills at quarterback for the Texans. Thankfully, our pool locked on Saturday when I still thought Tua, given his partial practice participation all week, had a 75-80 percent chance to play. The line was Dolphins minus 5.5, not too far off from the Saints (minus six) or Steelers (6.5), and I liked the spot for Miami better than for those other teams. 

Of course, I was nervous when Tua was scratched, and the line went down to four, but that's only because I briefly forgot the definition of "destiny." The Dolphins could no more lose that game than Oedipus avoid his fate when his parents sent him down the river. That every team who mattered besides the Colts lost too just made it that much sweeter. But lest you think we're down to the end, realize, there are still nearly 700 teams left in the contest, pending the Steelers-Bears Monday night. 

• The Titans held the Chiefs to three points two weeks ago and kept the Rams out of the end zone until the final minute of garbage time. Their defense is somehow good now, and after losing to the Jets, they've reeled off wins against the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. Mike Vrabel has to be on the short list for Coach of the Year.
• Cooper Kupp (13-11-95-0) gets his no matter how the game goes.
• The Cardinals destroyed the 49ers defense without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
• James Conner (21-96-2, 5-5-77-1) had a monster game after Chase Edmonds left early. Conner now has 11 touchdowns over his last seven games. 
• Jimmy Garoppolo is so easy to sack -- he has little mobility or strength. It boggles the mind the 49ers traded up for the No. 3 pick, yet still keep Trey Lance on the bench behind this guy.
• George Kittle (8-6-101-1), Brandon Aiyuk (8-6-89-1) and Deebo Samuel (9-5-63-0) split the work as we might have expected before the year. Aiyuk lost a fumble, but otherwise looked great, snatching everything near him with his giant wingspan.
• The 49ers defense could not make a tackle or get a stop to save its life.
• Jordan Love got the cover, and that was about it. I doubt he'll be starting for the Packers in 2022. 
• The Packers defense is good this year, but the Chiefs offense is a shell of its former self. (Yesterday when I was shucking oysters at a friend's house, and we gave a shell to my dog, I said, "Here you go, Oscar, but this oyster is only a shell of its former self."
• Justin Herbert reminds me of Dan Marino, only more mobile. The Chargers for some reason have reverted to dink and dunking to Keenan Allen (13-12-104-0) rather than downfield shots to Mike Williams (5-2-58-0.)
• I started Jalen Reagor in a 14-team half-point PPR because I had DK Metcalf on bye and DeAndre Hopkins out. He got me negative one tenth. Real receiver. 
• Jordan Howard (17-71-1) was the guy, but keep in mind that was against the Chargers who are one of the easiest teams against which to run. Jalen Hurts completed only 11 forward passes.
• The Vikings can lose a close game against anyone.
• Lamar Jackson had 21 rushing attempts and 41 passing attempts.
• Le'Veon Bell is getting more involved -- if Adrian Peterson at 36 is still scoring TDs, why can't 29-year old Bell?
• I love the Josh Allen on Josh Allen violence as much as anyone, but Scott Hanson beat it to death so badly, I can't muster the enthusiasm for more than this sentence.
• I'm starting to feel badly for Sam Darnold and even the stats guys who insist the Giants should have taken him over Saquon Barkley. Stop the fight already!
• As I said last week, I'm starting to get a 2001 vibe from the Patriots.
• I made this point in last week's podcast, but maybe the all-time greats aren't necessarily better at game-planning or strategizing, but instead error-correct faster. A great quarterback who is struggling against a defense more quickly diagnoses the best way to attack it. Bill Belichick's teams almost always improve as the season goes on, and this unusually efficient error-correction might explain why his teams went 58 percent against the spread from 2001-2019. The market looks only at past-performance and perhaps cannot keep up with Belichick's unusual rate of improvement. In any event, by Wednesday night, I realized I should have made the Pats minus four my best bet.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (10-62-0, 2-2-44-0) looks like a player.
• Josh Jacobs (13-76-0, 4-4-19-0) looked awfully spry against the Giants, but he's so rarely at full health. 
• Devontae Booker (21-99-0, 3-3-23-0) is a quality backup RB. He breaks tackles and makes good decisions, but lacks an extra gear.
• The Saints' QB play devolved this week. I'd expect Taysom Hill to start in Week 10.
• The Broncos were up 30-0 in Dallas before the Cowboys' two garbage-time TDs in the last 4.5 minutes.
• Baker Mayfield really prefers life without Odell Beckham.
• Nick Chubb (14-137-2, 2-2-26-0) is still the top-five real-life back we thought he was, but Kareem Hunt could be back before long to ruin it.
• Remember when the Bengals were the top seed in the AFC a couple weeks ago, and Ja'Marr Chase (13-6-49-0) was averaging 14.8 YPT? He's down to 11 YPT, though still leading the league by a full yard. The Bengals are now one of five 5-4 teams tied for the 7th-11th spots in the conference.
• I'm pretty sure no one on the planet was watching Dolphins-Texans as closely as Dalton Del Don and me.
• The Dolphins turned it over three times in the first half, lost their starting center, and of course, their quarterback. But Tyrod Taylor gifted them a TD late in the second quarter by throwing an accidental pick near the sideline when he meant to throw the ball away.
• The Dolphins, up eight and in range, could have sealed the game with a field goal midway through the fourth quarter, but instead of running the ball, chewing clock and locking it up, they called pass plays, and Jacoby Brissett was strip-sacked. Think Kyle Shahanan in the Falcons-Patriots Super Bowl.
• It just goes to show any game, no matter how bad its teams, can be epic if you have enough riding on it.
• Incidentally, the Dolphins (my actual best bet) covered, sending me to 9-0 (1 in 512 if dumb luck.)