This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks for Circa Survivor and Circa Millions, Week 4
Week 4 it is. We're putting the finishing touches on the first month of NFL action. It's been a solid start to the new season for yours truly. We're up over 53 units thus far, thanks in part to a couple big TD parlays, but whatever bro...it still counts. I'm searching for value on this slate as I shovel Bagel Bites into my mouth like a slob. It's a little quiet out here, but I got a play we can smash as a team.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+112) | Total: 40.5
How about them 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers!? A phenomenal start for the Black and Yellow has propelled some real hope in this new era of Steeler football. It's definitely been a defense first effort for them, but how well can this defense stop an offense with an elite playmaker at QB in Anthony Richardson? Only time will tell.
Pittsburgh has yet to tally 21 points in a game this season, but they've found a formula that works. Their defense has only allowed 8.7 PPG, by far the best in the NFL. We can accredit some of this hot start to a favorable schedule against the Chargers, Broncos, and Falcons, but they are playing their brand of football well. The Steelers have an opportunity to jump out early against an Indy team that has struggled in situational football.
Anthony Richardson is one of the most electric players in the NFL, but he also has a very low floor. A-Rich has missed tons of wide open receivers in addition to his six picks (five in the last two games). Pittsburgh hasn't seen an athlete at QB like this yet this year, but they've shut down the pass game (157.7 YPG) and the run game (71.3 YPG). Led by TJ Watt, the Steelers should be set up well to get after a touch and go offense.
The 1-2 Colts have yet to put it all together in one game thus far. The big question is how well can their QB1 execute critical situations. Defensively, they've been okay. Losing star DT, DeForest Buckner is huge. As the big dog in the middle that clogs up all the running lanes, Najee Harris may find running room to continue the pristine time of possession this offense has instituted. This offense has tallied 30+ rush attempts in all three contests with 135+ rush yards in two of their games. If the Colts can capitalize on limited possessions, it could spell trouble in Week 4.
Ultimately, I like this to be a lower scoring outing, making the under 40.5 a viable option. It's hard envisioning the Steelers going 4-0, but we're in a spot that they may be able to pull it off. This team has been great at limiting the mistakes, and making sure their opposition pays when making one. Indy has yet to give us that "WOW" game, and while they are capable of doing so at anytime, I'm not sure betting them in this spot is my go to. I like Pittsburgh in the under.
Pick: Steelers ML -132 (FD)
Circa Millions has not been kind to daddy, but it's such a long season. I tried to cut down on the overthinking this week to do a little reboot. Currently, your boy is only 6-9 (nice) on the year in the contest. Let's get that 5-0 week.
Circa Millions Entry Week 4
Pick 1: Steelers -1.5
See above.
Pick 2: Texans -6
Currently, I'm a bit concerned as this spot as moved to 5.5, making the Jags a Royal Mint spot. Coming into the week, I loved Houston for the simple fact that they are much better than what they have shown. The Texans have yet to play a complete game this season. Coming off a brutal loss at Minnesota against an uninspired Jags team provides an opportunity to get back in the win column. To me, it looks like Jax has quit on Doug Pederson. Nobody seems like they want to be there. Let's see if that's true.
Pick 3: Bucs +1.5
Tampa ran Philly last season, not that it factors into my decision-making. Both teams are dealing with a lot of key injuries. Philly will be without Arthur "AJ" Brown and Devonta Smith, their two star WRs. OT Lane Johnson's status is also in question. Meanwhile, Antoine Winfield Jr is out again for the Bucs, but their stud DT Vita Vea is on the right side of questionable. The Bucs are coming off a disgusting blow out loss at home against the Broncos. Tampa should be able to score on this Philly defense that has some vulnerabilities.
Pick 4: Bills +2.5
One thing I am concerned about here is Buffalo likely being the trendiest dog of the week, something I usually like to shy away from. I don't think the Bills are as good as people think they are. The benefits of a very easy schedule have given a lot of juice to this Buffalo team. However, the Baltimore Ravens appear to be an even bigger question mark. They blew a double digit lead to the Raiders in Week 2, which knocked me out of Circa Survivor. They also almost blew a four TD lead to Dallas last week. The defense is not good. Sure, their offense is solid and can score, but can they keep up with the Bills? There's going to be some weird stuff happening in this game, but I feel obligated to take Buffalo with the points.
Pick 5: Seahawks +3.5
Talk about more injuries. The Lions and Seahawks are dealing with a lot of key injuries, especially in the trenches. I usually like taking the teams laying 3.5 because a lot of bettors think getting the three and a hook is huge, which it is on paper. Also, the Lions have been awesome at home SU and ATS. But I like what Seattle is doing. They have yet to face a real test this season, but on Monday Night, they should be able to move the ball on a defense that's not lived up to the billing.
Don't forget to check out all of my picks on my discord. https://dubclub.win/r/_JohnnyVTV/
