Week 1 Observations

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Published on September 13, 2021

After the Survivor sweat Thursday night, Sunday was a relatively low-intensity experience. But like all NFL Week Ones, it served to disabuse me of some assumptions held onto during the preseason.

Here are a few:

The 49ers view Trey Sermon (healthy scratch) as a co-starter with Raheem Mostert. While I'd obviously hang onto Sermon, sixth-round rookie Elijah Mitchell saw most of the work after Mostert got hurt.
That Brandon Aiyuk, who didn't receive a single target, would be the team's top receiver. I had Deebo Samuel (12-9-189-1) ahead of him in the rankings for much of the summer, and I have no Aiyuk, but I got swayed by the market and pushed Aiyuk ahead by one or two spots late. Of course, you should hold onto last year's first-round pick who produced every chance he had. God knows what Kyle Shanahan is up to, though.
That the Bengals' offense would be sluggish due to their offensive line. While Joe Burrow took five sacks, he managed 9.7 YPA, and Joe Mixon had 127 yards on the ground. (The offensive line might slow them down yet, though.)
That Austin Ekeler would be featured more as a receiver than a runner. Ekeler logged 15 carries and scored at the goal line, but did not receive a single target. (This should change, but it was odd, to say the least.)
That the Panthers would ease up on Christian McCaffrey, given his slight frame, injury-ruined 2020 season and the 17-game schedule. McCaffrey saw 21 carries and nine targets, while backup Chuba Hubbard saw no carries and two targets.
That Mark Ingram was the No. 3 running back on the Texans. Ingram had 26 not very efficient carries for 85 yards and a TD.
That the Texans might go winless, given they're sitting a top-five NFL player and traded away their best cornerback to the Saints.
That James Robinson would dominate the work and snaps in the Jaguars backfield. Robinson saw only five carries while Carlos Hyde had nine.
That the Browns would be able to move the ball against the Chiefs all game. After an easy first half, Cleveland did next to nothing.
That Odell Beckham's Week 1 return was never in serious doubt. It was.
That maybe I was wrong about not initially buying into the Marquez Callaway hype, especially after Tre'Quan Smith went on IR too. So far I was not.
That Alvin Kamara would catch a ton of passes, given the state of the WR corps. He caught only three, but in fairness, the Saints were way ahead all game.
That Kenny Golladay was already compromised by a bum hamstring. He looked healthy and powerful, ripping a possible pick out of a defender's hands for one of his catches.
That the Rams would go easy on fragile Darrell Henderson and spell him with Sony Michel. Henderson got 16 carries to Michel's one and played nearly the entire game.
That Justin Jefferson would outproduce Van Jefferson. So far Van has him.

Things I Expected

Jalen Hurts (264 passing yards, three TDs, 62 rushing yards) can play. The Eagles offense, with its healthy offensive line, improved outside receivers and QB upgrade, should produce.
Miles Sanders (in whom I probably have too many shares), looked like the guy at the end of last year with Hurts rather than the one who struggled with Carson Wentz. His 15 carries and four catches on five targets bodes well.
Kenneth Gainwell (9-37-1, 3-2-6), not Boston Scott, is Sanders' backup.
Diontae Johnson (10 targets, despite leaving temporarily with an injury in the first half) is the Steelers' go-to guy.
That Ja'Marr Chase's shaky preseason was irrelevant (though I regrettably do not have any Chase.)
That Tyler Boyd's role (four targets) is no longer assured given the presence of two more dynamic options.
That the entire Lions offense runs through Jamaal Williams, D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson.
That Jonathan Taylor (17-56-0, 7-6-60-0) would have a sufficient role irrespective of game flow to justify a top-five overall pick. Nyheim Hines (9-34-0, 8-6-48) also had a significant role, but Taylor led the team in receiving and no other back saw a touch.
That Taylor Heinicke might already be better than Ryan Fitzpatrick (who left early after injuring his hip.)
That Trevor Lawrence would put up big fantasy stats, given the personnel on his team.
That Clyde Edwards-Helaire would see a modest number of targets (3) because Patrick Mahomes does not check down when in trouble.
That the Saints are still a good team.
That Melvin Gordon (11-101-1, 3-3-17) would not cede the job to Javonte Williams (14-45-0, 1-1--4) easily.
That Saquon Barkley (though ineffective) would see a fair workload (10 carries, three targets) and prove largely healthy.
That Cooper Kupp (10-7-108-1) would be the Rams' best receiver.

Other Observations

Kyle Pitts (8-4-31-0) didn't do much, but he was the co-leader in targets with Calvin Ridley (8-5-51-0) who didn't do much, either. Both should be fine unless 36-year-old Matt Ryan (4.7 YPA) is done.
The Lions should have just kicked a field goal down eight in the closing seconds to cement arguably the greatest backdoor cover of all time. (The Niners were up 41-17 at the two minute warning, while laying 7.5.)
Even with Najee Harris, the Steelers still couldn't run the ball to save their lives. Maybe the Bills are just stout up front, though. On the bright side, Harris had all 16 RB carries, so Mike Tomlin's tendencies haven't changed.
The Giants defense played okay, but it got beat on a few soul-crushing fourth-down conversions. Then again, KJ Hamler dropped an easy long TD, so it could have been worse too. One problem is the still inept offense keeping them on the field.
It felt good at the time to own Dalton Del Don in Beat Chris Liss 2 when I snaked him on Travis Etienne and Trey Sermon, two picks I knew (and he confirmed) he was set to make.