This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football brings an NFC South showdown between the Falcons and Buccaneers. Let's dive into the betting options for this important matchup and highlight three top wagers to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 16-11 (+3.02 units)
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds
Falcons: Spread -1.5 (-110 BetMGM), -122 Moneyline (BetRivers)
Buccaneers: Spread +1.5 (-105 FanDuel), +110 Moneyline (FanDuel)
Game Total: 43.5 points
After limited practice early in the week because of a hamstring issue, Bijan Robinson has received clearance to play. The Falcons and Buccaneers will not miss any of their top offensive weapons because of injuries.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Picks
Baker Mayfield over 22.5 pass completions (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Mayfield was excellent again last week, throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles. After throwing a career-high 28 touchdown passes last season, he already has eight this year. He also has thrown just two picks.
One of the reasons why Mayfield had such success last season was that he completed 64.3 percent of his pass attempts, the highest mark of his career. He has completed 70.5 percent of his passes this season, including at least 24 completions in three of his four games. The Falcons have allowed a 73.4 percent completion rate, the second worst mark in the NFL. Take the over here.
Bijan Robinson over 26.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Robinson has not had a monster rushing performance yet this season. The last two weeks have been particularly poor as he rushed for a combined 59 yards on 23 carries. With Tyler Allgeier continuing to take away some carries from him, Robinson has not surpassed 18 rushes in a game this season.
While Robinson has not racked up yards on the ground, he has at least 21 receiving yards in all four games. That includes two games with at least 43 receiving yards. The Buccaneers have struggled to stop running backs in the passing game, allowing the second-most receptions and the second-most receiving yards to the position in the league. Robinson has received at least four targets in three of four games, so enough opportunities should come his way to give him a favorable opportunity to hit this over.
Chris Godwin over 64.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Godwin has been busy. He has received at least eight targets in all four games this season, leaving him with a 26.6 percent target share. He only has an average depth of target of 6.0 yards, but he has averaged 7.3 yards after the catch. With his hefty workload, he has at least 69 receiving yards in three of four games.
The Falcons allowing a high completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks should also help Godwin in this matchup. Given how often Mayfield looks his way, Godwin has a favorable opportunity to extend his current streak of four straight games with at least six receptions. He averages 11.9 yards per reception this year after averaging 12.3 yards per reception with Mayfield on the team last year.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Thursday Night Football games can unpredictable. Add in this being a divisional matchup and either team could pull out the win. When in doubt, take the home team on a short week. The Falcons are just 3-7 on the road since the start of last season, but 6-5 at home.
