Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Saints vs. Cowboys

Thursday night's matchup sees Dallas travel to New Orleans with both teams coming off disappointing losses on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys lost a shootout to the Raiders in overtime while the Saints couldn't do much of anything in a 31-6 loss to the Bills. As of Wednesday, the Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites in a matchup that features a 47.5-point total. The status of Alvin Kamara (knee) will be important to monitor. He hasn't played since Week 9 due to a knee injury and seems unlikely to play Thursday. From a DFS perspective, there won't be much for cheap value on this slate if Kamara plays. The Cowboys will be the popular side regardless. If you're building Dallas stacks, try to make them less obvious or leave salary on the table to differentiate. On the flip side, making lineups with three or four Saints would be an easy way to get some leverage. Whichever path you choose, remember to plan for a specific scenario and build lineups to fit that particular game script. Good Luck.

QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott ($11,800 DK, $16,500 FD) threw for 375 yards and two touchdowns last week as he put up 25-plus fantasy points for the fifth time in his last seven games. The matchup against New Orleans should favor the passing game as the Saints have one of the best run defenses in the league. Prescott is the most expensive player on the slate and rightly so as he projects for the most raw points. He makes for a good option in the MVP spot on FanDuel but on DraftKings there are reasons to avoid rostering him in the captain spot. The high salary makes it tough without much for cheap value on the rest of the slate to support it. Quarterbacks are always overly popular there anyway and historical data shows that WRs and RBs are more likely to be optimal captains. 

Trevor Siemian ($9,400 DK, $14,500 FD) is coming off a tough game last week against the Bills when he threw for just 163 yards and a TD with one INT as he failed to reach double-digit fantasy points for the first time in five games. The Saints are expected to name Taysom Hill ($9,600 DK, $7,000 FD) the starter for Thursday. He's been dealing with a foot injury but is healthy enough to make his first start of the season at QB. Hill is much more appealing from a DFS perspective based on his considerable rushing upside and the fact that he likes to call his own number near the goal line. You could argue that Hill is slight downgrade for the Saints WRs, however, as they're likely to see a smaller target share and Hill has never been prolific in the passing game as it is. He's a viable option in the captain/MVP spot given that he has upside for multiple rushing TDs. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

CeeDee Lamb ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD) is fully healthy after sitting out last week due to a concussion. Prior to that, he'd topped 20 DK points in three of his last five games. That type of upside makes him a worthy option for the captain spot. Amari Cooper ($8,600 DK, $11,500 FD) is back in the mix too after being activated from the COVID-19 list on Wednesday. It's been an up-and-down season for Cooper as he's put up more than 16 fantasy points just twice in nine games. Expect a slightly lower target share to continue with both Lamb and Michael Gallup ($6,800 DK, $10,500 FD) healthy. Gallup operated as the No. 1 WR last week against the Raiders and caught five of eight targets for 106 yards. He will be back in his customary No. 3 role WR and that likely means a few less targets that in recent weeks. He's still a viable option, though, based on the cheaper salary. Cedrick Wilson ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) turned in his best game of the season last time out when he caught seven passes for 104 yards in the absence of Lamb and Cooper. He's yet to practice this week due to an injury. Even if plays, the salary is a bit too expensive with him back in his usual role. If he sits, Noah Brown ($600 DK, $6,500 FD) and Malik Turner ($200 DK, $6,000 FD) would stand to benefit. Brown has seen more opportunities this season and is coming off nine targets last week. For just $600, he'd been worth taking a chance on if you're entering multiple lineups.

Marquez Callaway ($6,400 DK, $8,500 FD) continues to operate as the Saints' No. 1 WR, but he's drawn no more than four targets in three consecutive games. I wouldn't expect any more than that with Taysom Hill at quarterback. Tre'Quan Smith ($5,600 DK, $9,000 FD) has seen more opportunities from the slot as he's drawn at least five targets in three straight. I prefer him over Callaway based on the volume and salary savings. Deonte Harris ($4,600 DK, $7,500 FD) has been a favorite target of Hill's. He's the type of player who only needs one target to make value based on his big-play ability as a deep threat. Ty Montgomery ($3,000 DK, $6,500 FD) had 11 touches last week in the absence of Kamara and Ingram. With Ingram back healthy, I have little to no interest in Montgomery for Thursday. Lil'Jordan Humphrey ($2,600 DK, $7,000 FD) is a coming off a season-high five targets. I wouldn't expect that again, especially with Hill under center, but I'd rather take a shot on him than Montgomery or Nick Vannett in that salary range. In general I'm less than optimistic about Saints pass-catchers and probably won't pair Hill with more than one. 

Moving on to tight end, Dalton Schultz ($7,600 DK, $9,500 FD) caught three of seven targets for 46 yards and a TD last week. He's overpriced now that Lamb and Cooper are back as I'd expect his target share to take a significant hit. Sean McKeon ($1,000 DK, $5,500 FD) has four catches in his last three games as he continues to see limited playing time as the backup TE in the absence of Blake Jarwin. He also caught his first career TD last week and that's all it would take to make value for his $1,000 salary. 

On the Saints side, Nick Vannett ($3,600 DK, $7,000 FD) caught his first TD of the season last week. He's drawn one target in each of two starts. He will continue to share time at the position with Juwan Johnson ($1,400 DK, $6,500 FD). Johnson wasn't targeted last week, but I'd prefer taking a chance on him rather than Vannett based on the $2,200 salary difference. Both players are likely touchdown-dependent. 

RUNNING BACKS

Ezekiel Elliott ($10,800 DK, $14,000 FD) has been managing knee soreness but comes into Thursday without an injury designation. He's managed only nine carries in back-to-back games, mostly due to game scripts going against the Cowboys. That's led to him catching 12 of 14 targets in that span. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said he expects Elliott to handle a "serious load," whatever that means. The matchup against New Orleans isn't great as the Saints boast one the better run defenses in the league. Consequently, Elliott seems a tad overpriced in this spot. I prefer Prescott and Lamb in the same range. Tony Pollard ($7,800 DK, $12,000 FD) had 10 carries and four catches last week. He also ran a kick back for a touchdown. He's overpriced for his role as backup but has upside based on his work in the passing game. He's caught 12 of 13 targets the last three games. Nevertheless, I plan on having less exposure than the field to both Cowboys RBs. 

Alvin Kamara ($11,200 DK, $15,000 FD) returned to practice this week and is listed as questionable for Thursday. It appears as though he will be active for the first time since Week 9. It's reasonable to assume that his snap count would be limited coming back from a knee injury. Taysom Hill at quarterback is usually a downgrade for Kamara, who draws less targets and sees fewer goal line carries when Hill plays. He's also the second-most expensive player on the slate and it will be difficult to pay off that salary if he isn't as involved in the passing game, much less if his playing time is limited. One argument in favor of rostering Kamara is that he'll be considerably less popular than we're used to seeing him based on the all of the above. Mark Ingram ($5,000 DK, $12,000 FD) is back healthy and expected to split time with Kamara. He's a viable option based on the lack of cheaper value in general on this slate. It's easy to see him outscoring the Saints WRs in that range. If Kamara ends up sitting out again, Ingram would become the top value option on the slate. 

KICKERS

I'm almost always in favor of rostering kickers as we see them end up in the optimal lineup quite often. Thursday's slate is no different as it lacks for cheap value, making Greg Zuerlein ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) and Brett Maher ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) appealing options. It's not hard to imagine that no player priced below the kickers scores double-digit fantasy points and it's easy for a kicker to do that. I prefer Zuerlein based on the fact that he's likely to have more opportunities with Cowboys being 4.5-point favorites. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS 

I usually avoid rostering defenses and I plan to be underweight on both teams for Thursday. I don't have much interest in the Saints ($3,800) against a potent Dallas offense. There is more of an argument for rostering the Cowboys ($4,400) in Taysom Hill's first start of the season. They're averaging three sacks per game over their last four and have 15 INTs in 11 games this season. Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons have been great and are among the favorites to win defensive player of the year and defensive rookie of the year, respectively. Hill could struggle and it's very possible that he commits multiple turnovers. Rostering the Cowboys D/ST makes a lot of sense in Dallas stacks.