Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Jets vs. Jacksonville

The Jaguars finally seem to be on a reliable ascent with the excellent play of Trevor Lawrence in the past month, so Thursday's game between Jacksonville and the Jets will be an interesting test of just where Lawrence might be in his development. Particularly if the Jets get back elite defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, this matchup will likely be the toughest Lawrence has seen since his breakout. Specifically, the Jets' cornerback personnel presents challenges Lawrence hasn't yet seen. Not just that, but weather might be an issue with both rain and winds above 15 miles per hour present. It would be forgivable if Lawrence's numbers took a regression hit in this game, and Zach Wilson on the other side is uninspiring. The over/under has dropped from 41.0 to 37.5 with what might be a sloppy, somewhat arbitrary game.

QUARTERBACKS

Trevor Lawrence ($11400 DK, $16500 FD) has played at an extremely high level for the past month and appears much better prepared for this matchup than he did before then. The problem is that this matchup might be substantially tougher than any of the prior four even before you factor in the weather. The absence of Cam Robinson at left tackle is somewhat concerning, especially if Quinnen Williams returns for the Jets at defensive tackle. The good news is that the Dallas defense – though nowhere near as sound in the secondary as the Jets – gave up 318 yards and four touchdowns to Lawrence last week despite possessing one of the league's most feared pass rushes.

Zach Wilson ($9800 DK, $15000 FD) might not be good, but the matchup could be favorable enough to make Wilson a worthwhile consideration on the single-game slate. The Jaguars defense wasn't good to begin with, and it will be playing without front seven defenders Travon Walker and Foley Fatukasi. Wilson managed to reach 317 yards and two touchdowns with an otherwise sloppy box score against Detroit, and this matchup might not be any more difficult for a quarterback, weather aside.

RUNNING BACKS

Travis Etienne ($9600 DK, $14000 FD) is a very talented player but this seems like a bad setup for him. He's managing fumbling issues that can't be a helpful use of his time or attention, and the Jaguars offensive line is unlikely to create any space against a strong Jets run defense, particularly if Quinnen Williams is back. The Jaguars want Etienne to be a feature back, but the bruising of that role isn't something that necessarily suits him – he's at his best in space and it's hard to see the Jaguars doing well on that front with left tackle Cam Robinson out and right tackle Jawaan Taylor playing hurt. JaMycal Hasty ($2800 DK, $7500 FD) would likely pick up whatever snaps don't go to Etienne, though Snoop Conner ($200 DK, $5500 FD) has seen a carry in three of the last four weeks.

Zonovan Knight ($7000 DK, $12500 FD) is listed as questionable with an ankle issue but also was listed as a full practice participant, so it's unclear what he's actually dealing with or whether it would matter. He otherwise gets a good matchup here if his usage is assured – the Jaguars run defense is not good and the Jets defense is capable of giving the offense good field positioning, especially if Quinnen Williams is active. Michael Carter ($6400 DK, $10000 FD) also looms as a potential heir to the Jets backfield production – perhaps slightly more in pass-catching situations – and Carter was certainly the better of the two in the ACC when Carter was at North Carolina and Knight at North Carolina State.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Garrett Wilson ($9000 DK, $13500 FD) doesn't often get good throws from Zach Wilson but the high target volume offsets that, and the concern is offset further yet by the fact that the Jaguars defense is not good and specifically is prone to errors in fundamentals, and according to Pro Football Reference the Jaguars are tied for first in missed tackles. Missed tackles or botched assignments can come at a high cost against Wilson, so despite his quarterback issues he remains a compelling play. Corey Davis ($5600 DK, $8000 FD) should play the vast majority of the outside reps opposite Wilson and might take some of the snaps that had otherwise gone to Elijah Moore ($4800 DK, $7500 FD) when Davis was missing. Moore should get the vast majority of slot reps, though those are sometimes poached by Braxton Berrios ($1600 DK, $6000 FD), who also serves as the Jets' primary returner. C.J. Uzomah ($3000 DK, $6500 FD) broke out last week and as a big, toolsy tight end he can do that from time to time, but before last week Tyler Conklin ($3200 DK, $6500 FD) had been targeted more regularly.

Zay Jones ($8200 DK, $12000 FD) is red-hot lately and will try to keep it going in this very tough matchup against Jets corners Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, both of whom look problematic for Zay. The coverage might be a little weaker toward the slot, where Christian Kirk ($10200 DK, $13000 FD) needs to get his drops under control but could see a solid game against the comparatively easier target in slot corner Michael Carter. Marvin Jones ($5000 DK, $8000 FD) is still hanging around and not doing much with his otherwise substantial opportunity in the surging offense, but as long as he's out there he has the chance to pop up occasionally, especially if someone slips in coverage. Evan Engram ($7600 DK, $11000 FD) might be as good of a candidate to produce as any of the Jaguars receivers, as he's seen 32 targets in the last three games. He notably gets to run his routes away from the otherwise feared Jets corners, too. Jamal Agnew ($2000 DK, $7000 FD) doesn't play much but he reliably gets targets and carries schemed to him when he is on the field, drawing 27 targets and 10 carries on 102 snaps this year. Agnew is also Jacksonville's primary returner.

KICKERS

Greg Zuerlein ($4600 DK, $9000 FD) hasn't been especially reliable the last few years but he also sees more usage from beyond 50 yards than most kickers, so he has double-digit fantasy upside in games where the Jets have favorable field positioning. In this case that might need to come from the defense, which needs to stall Lawrence and get the ball near to Zuerlein's range. Riley Patterson ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) offers slightly better accuracy than Zuerlein but less range, so while Patterson's opportunity level is often good in the Jaguars offense it might be noteworthy that Patterson is 9 of 12 on attempts beyond 40 yards while Zuerlein is 13 of 18.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Jets ($3600 DK, $9500 FD) would look a lot better if they get back Quinnen Williams (calf), who had been playing at an MVP-like level before his injury. The Jets defense is still good aside from Williams – Lawrence has a difficult test ahead – but Lawrence has been exceptional the past month and poses a substantial test for the Jets if the weather doesn't intervene on the behalf of the defense. The Jaguars ($3800 DK, $9000 FD) defense has been a mess most weeks but they are more interesting than usual due to the weather and Zach Wilson factor. Just know that the Jaguars have issues at all three levels, and they're down two starting linemen in Travon Walker and Foley Fatukasi.