This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week wasn't a killer in Survivor, as the only popular pick to lose was the Giants. But even then, only about 5 percent of the public had New York.
In my pool, in fact, everyone survived. Of the original 410 entrants, 11 still remain.
On to Week 12.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Texans | 60.3% | 607 | 85.9% | 8.53 |
| 49ERS | Saints | 10.6% | 380 | 79.2% | 2.21 |
| COWBOYS | Giants | 7.6% | 355 | 78.0% | 1.67 |
| Bills | LIONS | 5.7% | 402.5 | 80.1% | 1.13 |
| CHIEFS | Rams | 4.7% | 1000 | 90.9% | 0.43 |
| JETS | Bears | 2.5% | 201 | 66.8% | 0.83 |
| SEAHAWKS | Raiders | 2.3% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.81 |
| COMMANDERS | Falcons | 2.0% | 201 | 66.8% | 0.66 |
| Chargers | CARDINALS | 1.1% | 196 | 66.2% | 0.37 |
| VIKINGS | Patriots | 0.9% | 148 | 59.7% | 0.36 |
| Ravens | JAGUARS | 0.7% | 189 | 65.4% | 0.24 |
| EAGLES | Packers | 0.5% | 271.5 | 73.1% | 0.13 |
| Buccaneers | BROWNS | 0.4% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.15 |
| COLTS | Steelers | 0.3% | 131.5 | 56.8% | 0.13 |
| Broncos | PANTHERS | 0.2% | 127 | 55.9% | 0.09 |
| Bengals | TITANS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Welcome to Thanksgiving week in the NFL. This is certainly a curious week, with more than 60 percent of the entrants at Officefootballpools.com picking the Dolphins. We'll go through the math to determine if
Last week wasn't a killer in Survivor, as the only popular pick to lose was the Giants. But even then, only about 5 percent of the public had New York.
In my pool, in fact, everyone survived. Of the original 410 entrants, 11 still remain.
On to Week 12.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Texans | 60.3% | 607 | 85.9% | 8.53 |
| 49ERS | Saints | 10.6% | 380 | 79.2% | 2.21 |
| COWBOYS | Giants | 7.6% | 355 | 78.0% | 1.67 |
| Bills | LIONS | 5.7% | 402.5 | 80.1% | 1.13 |
| CHIEFS | Rams | 4.7% | 1000 | 90.9% | 0.43 |
| JETS | Bears | 2.5% | 201 | 66.8% | 0.83 |
| SEAHAWKS | Raiders | 2.3% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.81 |
| COMMANDERS | Falcons | 2.0% | 201 | 66.8% | 0.66 |
| Chargers | CARDINALS | 1.1% | 196 | 66.2% | 0.37 |
| VIKINGS | Patriots | 0.9% | 148 | 59.7% | 0.36 |
| Ravens | JAGUARS | 0.7% | 189 | 65.4% | 0.24 |
| EAGLES | Packers | 0.5% | 271.5 | 73.1% | 0.13 |
| Buccaneers | BROWNS | 0.4% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.15 |
| COLTS | Steelers | 0.3% | 131.5 | 56.8% | 0.13 |
| Broncos | PANTHERS | 0.2% | 127 | 55.9% | 0.09 |
| Bengals | TITANS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Welcome to Thanksgiving week in the NFL. This is certainly a curious week, with more than 60 percent of the entrants at Officefootballpools.com picking the Dolphins. We'll go through the math to determine if it makes sense to fade Miami, but remember that the selection numbers above are getting dicier by the week. As was pointed out last week, Survivor pools have thinned considerably, which means you need to consult your own pool as to who's been picked this week and who your opponents have available.
Now then, does it make sense to not pick the Dolphins, hoping you'll knock out most of your pool? Short answer, yes. Long answer is as follows, pivoting to the 49ers, the next most popular team.
A Dolphins win/49ers loss is .86 (Dolphins' Vegas Odds of winning) multiplied by .21 (49ers' Vegas Odds of losing), which is 18.1 percent. A 49ers win/Dolphins loss is .79*.14 = 11.1 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 18.1/11.1 = 1.63.
For the reward ratio, we'll again use a hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Dolphins win/49ers lose, 10 are out on the 49ers plus another seven expected to lose on the other teams, for 17 total losers. 100-17 = 83 remaining owners, $1,000/83 = $12.04.
If the 49ers win/Dolphins lose, it's 60 out on the Dolphins, plus seven more, for 67 total. 100-67 = 33, $1,000/33 = $30.30. The reward ratio of $30.30/$12.04 is 2.51.
With a risk of 1.63 and a reward of 2.51, there is, therefore, a lot of value in picking against the Dolphins and taking the 49ers.
Now, the Chiefs, at 91 percent, have the highest Vegas odds on the board and with less than 5 percent of public on them make for a much bigger value than the 49ers. However, the reason so few people picked them is obviously that they are unavailable to many participants. If the Chiefs are an option, then that's easily the way to go by all means.
Your pool is likely to be much different than the numbers above, however. So, what's the minimum ownership of the Dolphins to still do better than break even on the risk/reward scale? Well, $12.04 reward multiplied by 1.63 risk = $19.62 in equity if you pick the Dolphins. Now, $1,000/50 = $20. That means, to get that $20 in equity, you need enough people on the Dolphins so that if they lose, only 50 remain. With seven expected to lose on the other teams, you need 43 (or, 43 percent) on the Dolphins. If at least 43 percent of your pool is on the Dolphins — and that seems quite likely — you're better off going elsewhere.
Picks below are in order of preference. If none of the teams below are available, put your options in the comments and we'll hash it out.
My Picks
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 14.5-point favorites against the Rams, which has to be the most an opponent of a defending Super Bowl champ has ever been favored. The Rams are circling the drain and could be down to their third-string QB by gametime. Congratulations to those who still have the Chiefs available.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are likely available in most pools, which will make their ownership sky-high as they play host to a one-win Texans team that has lost five in a row. They are an easy pick — especially if the Chiefs are gone — but the pot-odds play is to pivot off the Dolphins.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are coming off a big Monday night win in Mexico City and, assuming Montezuma did not have his revenge, should take care of a Saints outfit who hasn't won on the road since Week 1 (at Atlanta). The Saints' win last week came against the Rams' third-string QB and without Cooper Kupp.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles needed a late touchdown to get by the Colts last week, but this week they get a reeling Packers team that doesn't figure to keep up. This one is in Philly, which makes it all the more unlikely for Green Bay. The Eagles are a strong play, if available.
Buffalo Bills
We doubted the Lions last week and they laid a beatdown on the Giants in New York. Can they pull another upset this week? Doubtful. Highly doubtful. The Bills escaped a blizzard last week ... to Detroit, where they beat the Browns (thanks to six Tyler Bass field goals). Josh Allen should pick apart a bad Lions defense, and the Bills should make it two in a row in Detroit. On the other hand, this is the Thanksgiving opener and do you really want to ruin your holiday weekend should Buffalo lose? Alas, it's probably a mute point as the Bills likely are not available in most pools.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are coming off a bye with the Raiders riding to town. Las Vegas has three wins this year, two against the Broncos after last week's overtime victory. The Raiders are not good. Whatever the Seahawks are — and I'm still not quite sure — they're better than that. Who ya gonna call? Raiders Busters!
Baltimore Ravens
The Jaguars have lost their last five against the AFC North. The Ravens should be make it six straight losses. After starting 2-1, Jacksonville has lost six of seven. Baltimore has won four in a row, even while not playing its best football. Mark Andrews returned last week from injury and figures to be more a factor with another week of good health.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings got dismantled at home by the Cowboys last week. Expect a rebound effort against the Patriots in the Thanksgiving capper. Minnesota was probably due for a course correction and is not as bad it played last week. The Patriots have a good defense that perhaps can slow the Vikings, but last week's blowout loss probably got Minnesota's attention.
Notable Omission:
Dallas Cowboys
I'm still not sure how the Giants lost at home last week to the Lions. But backed into a corner in a Thanksgiving game against a division rival, they should come out stronger this week. The Cowboys have a solid defense, but they're not nearly as good against the run (26th) as they are against the pass. With a poor passing offense against a white-hot Cowboys pass rush, the Giants should just keep it on the ground — Saquon Barkley could get 40 carries. Dallas probably wins, but I wouldn't want to risk my Survivor entry on it.
If you are in Maryland or Ohio, keep in mind that legal sportsbooks are set to launch in your state soon. Stay up to date with the latest BetMGM Maryland bonus code, and prepare for Ohio with the BetMGM Ohio bonus code.
