This article is part of our Survivor series.
Back at it again. Welcome to Week 1 Survivor, where the goal isn't merely to survive but to win.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here. Those pieces explain the background and principles employed below. In sum, the strategy tells you not just how likely a team is to win but how much that win is worth to you — because Survivor is not just about surviving as long as possible; it's about surviving while everyone else does not. In any event, read those background pieces.
Week 1 is always a tricky beast because as much as we think we know, we don't know what we don't know. Just look back to last season when five of the top-six Survivor picks failed to win Week 1. In my Survivor pool, 43.7 percent of entrants did not survive the opening weekend.
Let's hope this year goes a little more according to form, or at least that we're on the surviving end of a Week 1 bloodbath.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Texans | 35.2% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 6.55 |
| COMMANDERS | Cardinals | 24.1% | 270 | 73.0% | 6.51 |
| VIKINGS | Buccaneers | 12.8% | 225 | 69.2% | 3.94 |
| CHIEFS | Lions | 7.2% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.36 |
| Jaguars | COLTS | 5.4% | 205 | 67.2% |
Back at it again. Welcome to Week 1 Survivor, where the goal isn't merely to survive but to win.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here. Those pieces explain the background and principles employed below. In sum, the strategy tells you not just how likely a team is to win but how much that win is worth to you — because Survivor is not just about surviving as long as possible; it's about surviving while everyone else does not. In any event, read those background pieces.
Week 1 is always a tricky beast because as much as we think we know, we don't know what we don't know. Just look back to last season when five of the top-six Survivor picks failed to win Week 1. In my Survivor pool, 43.7 percent of entrants did not survive the opening weekend.
Let's hope this year goes a little more according to form, or at least that we're on the surviving end of a Week 1 bloodbath.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Texans | 35.2% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 6.55 |
| COMMANDERS | Cardinals | 24.1% | 270 | 73.0% | 6.51 |
| VIKINGS | Buccaneers | 12.8% | 225 | 69.2% | 3.94 |
| CHIEFS | Lions | 7.2% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.36 |
| Jaguars | COLTS | 5.4% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.77 |
| SEAHAWKS | Rams | 4.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.29 |
| Eagles | PATRIOTS | 2.5% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.92 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 1.6% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.60 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 1.2% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.44 |
| BEARS | Packers | 0.8% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.38 |
| SAINTS | Titans | 0.7% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.27 |
| 49ers | STEELERS | 0.6% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.26 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 0.6% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.27 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 0.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.19 |
| Bills | JETS | 0.5% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.22 |
| CHARGERS | Dolphins | 0.4% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.16 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Ravens and Commanders account for more than half of the picks this week, and there does not appear to be a pot-odds play. You could fade both those teams, hoping to knock out the majority of your pool, but now you're rolling the dice on three independent events playing out in your favor — Ravens lose, Commanders lose, your team wins — which greatly increases the risk.
Betting against rookie head coaches and/or rookie/inexperienced quarterbacks is the theme below.
MY PICKS
Baltimore Ravens
The revamped Ravens open at home against the rebuilding Texans. Lamar Jackson has a new contract, new receivers and a new pass-centered offense. Houston will debut coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Defensively, the Texans hope to move from awful to respectable this year. Maybe they will, but it's not likely to happen as soon as Week 1. For what it's worth, the Ravens were the only popular team to survive Week 1 last season.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings went 13-4 last season and improved offensively this offseason with the fresh legs of rookie WR Jordan Addison and former backup RB Alexander Mattison. The Buccaneers will start Baker Mayfield at quarterback, and while he is capable, on the road in a hostile environment doesn't seem like a good launching point.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks improved offensively this offseason — and they hope defensively — but the real story is the Rams, who have little going for them. Matthew Stafford is old, Cooper Kupp is injured and probably won't play and the defense has no one of note other than Aaron Donald. Even if Kupp plays, he likely won't be close to 100 percent health, and the Seahawks have no fear of the Rams' other receivers — Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Puka Nacua, etc. The only way this game goes sideways is if the Seahawks' run defense is as awful as it was last year and Cam Akers gets loose for huge a day.
Atlanta Falcons
Rookie QB Bryce Young will debut for the Panthers behind a bad offensive line with few weapons at his disposal. The Falcons, meanwhile, have a solid collection of young weapons in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. And QB Desmond Ridder should improve in his second year. The defense should improve too after a number of quality offseason moves. Division games have been known to go haywire, and new Carolina coach Frank Reich seems capable of elevating his team, but Carolina doesn't appear to have enough on either side of the ball to squeak it out.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders are the second-most popular team, only because the Cardinals look like an FCS squad. New Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon hasn't revealed his starting QB; neither option is exciting — career backup Joshua Dobbs or fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune. Gannon was Philadelphia's defensive mastermind the last couple seasons, but he has nowhere near the talent in Arizona (outside of safeties Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson). That said, do you really want to bet your Survivor hopes on second-year Washington QB Sam Howell — he of one career start — especially with Terry McLaurin gimpy with turf toe? Some will take the Commanders thinking this is the best, and only, spot to use them all year. But no one knows the future, especially in a league as mixed up week to week as the NFL. The Commanders have nearly the same Vegas odds as the Vikings yet are owned twice as much.
Notable Omissions:
Kansas City Chiefs
The defending Super Bowl champs face the Lions in Thursday's season opener. The Chiefs should handle their business — at home, celebratory atmosphere, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid — but the receivers are completely uninspiring and Travis Kelce likely won't play because of a knee injury. On defense, Chris Jones is still holding out. The Lions have plenty of offensive talent and coach Dan Campbell seems like a master motivator. Doesn't feel like a slam dunk.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars likely will smack the Colts (another team with a rookie QB), but it's difficult to bet the farm on the road team in a division game — especially in Week 1.
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