This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week finally saw some carnage with the Bengals taking down nearly half of most pools. None of the other big favorites lost, however.
Let's take a look at Week 9:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Broncos | 29.2% | 395 | 79.80 | 5.90 |
| COLTS | Jets | 26.1% | 485 | 82.91 | 4.46 |
| Bills | JAGUARS | 14.9% | 950 | 90.48 | 1.42 |
| DOLPHINS | Texans | 11.4% | 247.5 | 71.22 | 3.28 |
| STEELERS | Bears | 7.2% | 255 | 71.83 | 2.03 |
| SAINTS | Falcons | 3.3% | 247.5 | 71.22 | 0.95 |
| RAVENS | Vikings | 3.2% | 216 | 68.35 | 1.01 |
| RAMS | Titans | 1.8% | 320 | 76.19 | 0.43 |
| Raiders | GIANTS | 0.8% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.33 |
| Patriots | PANTHERS | 0.6% | 190 | 65.52 | 0.21 |
The Bills are in a class of their own, but after that, it's close between the Colts and Cowboys in one tier and then the Dolphins, Steelers, Saints and Ravens in the other. (The Rams are in their own in-between tier, but few people still have them available.)
My Picks
1. Buffalo Bills
This is certainly a letdown spot, but even if the Bills come out flat, they should destroy a terrible Jaguars team. I give the BIlls a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Indianapolis Colts
The Mike White story is cool, but I'll fade the Jets off a dramatic home upset win, especially given they have to travel on a short week to play a desperate team that won't overlook them. I give the Colts an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Dallas Cowboys
The Broncos have a stout defense, and Jerry Jeudy's
Last week finally saw some carnage with the Bengals taking down nearly half of most pools. None of the other big favorites lost, however.
Let's take a look at Week 9:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Broncos | 29.2% | 395 | 79.80 | 5.90 |
| COLTS | Jets | 26.1% | 485 | 82.91 | 4.46 |
| Bills | JAGUARS | 14.9% | 950 | 90.48 | 1.42 |
| DOLPHINS | Texans | 11.4% | 247.5 | 71.22 | 3.28 |
| STEELERS | Bears | 7.2% | 255 | 71.83 | 2.03 |
| SAINTS | Falcons | 3.3% | 247.5 | 71.22 | 0.95 |
| RAVENS | Vikings | 3.2% | 216 | 68.35 | 1.01 |
| RAMS | Titans | 1.8% | 320 | 76.19 | 0.43 |
| Raiders | GIANTS | 0.8% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.33 |
| Patriots | PANTHERS | 0.6% | 190 | 65.52 | 0.21 |
The Bills are in a class of their own, but after that, it's close between the Colts and Cowboys in one tier and then the Dolphins, Steelers, Saints and Ravens in the other. (The Rams are in their own in-between tier, but few people still have them available.)
My Picks
1. Buffalo Bills
This is certainly a letdown spot, but even if the Bills come out flat, they should destroy a terrible Jaguars team. I give the BIlls a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Indianapolis Colts
The Mike White story is cool, but I'll fade the Jets off a dramatic home upset win, especially given they have to travel on a short week to play a desperate team that won't overlook them. I give the Colts an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Dallas Cowboys
The Broncos have a stout defense, and Jerry Jeudy's return gives them another offensive weapon. But as long as Dak Prescott plays, the Cowboys are one of the league's top teams, and they usually play better at home. I give the Cowboys an 81 percent chance to win this game.
4. Miami Dolphins
If Tyrod Taylor plays, I'd move them to fifth, but if it's Davis Mills, the Dolphins should roll. Miami hasn't won since Week 1, so there's no chance they'll overlook the Texans. I give the Dolphins a 76 percent chance to win this game
When determining who to take in your Survivor Pools, should you target the best teams or the teams playing in the best matchup?@Chris_Liss & @Jeff_Erickson discuss while going over their Week 9 picks on @RotoWire! pic.twitter.com/NRHMfc6tnL
— Fantasy Sports Radio (@SiriusXMFantasy) November 4, 2021
5. Los Angeles Rams
The Titans are good, but the Derrick Henry loss is significant, and the Rams added another top edge rusher in Von Miller. I give the Rams at 75-percent chance to win this game.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Justin Fields looked better last week, but playing in Pittsburgh should be a tall order for the rookie. Khalil Mack is week to week with an injury, and the Steelers don't need to do much offensively to win. I give them a 70 percent chance to win this game.
7. New Orleans Saints
I expect the Saints to roll, but they'll be breaking in a new starting QB, either Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill, and that carries extra risk. I give them a 69 percent chance to win this game.
8. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens could crush the Vikings, but Baltimore's defense has played only one good game all year, against the Chargers, so there's risk of this being a "whoever has the ball last wins" kind of game. I give the Ravens a 69 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
New England Patriots -- The Panthers defense is tough, and it's a road game.
Las Vegas Raiders -- The Giants are tough, could get some key players back, and the Raiders might not be in a good place after the Henry Ruggs news.
