This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was fairly uneventful with the big three (Buccaneers, Packers and Browns) all winning relatively easily and only about five percent of pools going down on the Seahawks and Steelers.
Let's take a look at Week 3
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRONCOS | Jets | 37.9% | 525 | 84.00 | 6.06 |
| Panthers | TEXANS | 14.6% | 350 | 77.78 | 3.24 |
| BILLS | Football Team | 13.2% | 360 | 78.26 | 2.87 |
| Cardinals | JAGUARS | 10.9% | 340 | 77.27 | 2.48 |
| Ravens | LIONS | 10.9% | 350 | 77.78 | 2.42 |
| BROWNS | Bears | 3.5% | 291.5 | 74.46 | 0.89 |
| RAIDERS | Dolphins | 2.6% | 184.5 | 64.85 | 0.91 |
| TITANS | Colts | 1.8% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.55 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 1.7% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.45 |
| GIANTS | Falcons | 0.9% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.37 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
What stands out is the Broncos are the biggest favorite, but also by far the most owned. That means we need to do some pot odds math.
The odds of a Broncos win and say Bills loss (the next four teams are roughly equal) is 18 percent. The odds of a Bills win/Broncos loss is 12 percent. The risk ratio is therefore 1.5.
But if the Broncos lose in your hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, they'd take 38 people with them, leaving 62. But 12 other non-Bills owners would be projected to lose too, knocking it down to 50. So if your equity were $10 initially, it would double to $20 with only half the entrants remaining.
If the Bills lost instead, only 13 people
Last week was fairly uneventful with the big three (Buccaneers, Packers and Browns) all winning relatively easily and only about five percent of pools going down on the Seahawks and Steelers.
Let's take a look at Week 3
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRONCOS | Jets | 37.9% | 525 | 84.00 | 6.06 |
| Panthers | TEXANS | 14.6% | 350 | 77.78 | 3.24 |
| BILLS | Football Team | 13.2% | 360 | 78.26 | 2.87 |
| Cardinals | JAGUARS | 10.9% | 340 | 77.27 | 2.48 |
| Ravens | LIONS | 10.9% | 350 | 77.78 | 2.42 |
| BROWNS | Bears | 3.5% | 291.5 | 74.46 | 0.89 |
| RAIDERS | Dolphins | 2.6% | 184.5 | 64.85 | 0.91 |
| TITANS | Colts | 1.8% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.55 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 1.7% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.45 |
| GIANTS | Falcons | 0.9% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.37 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
What stands out is the Broncos are the biggest favorite, but also by far the most owned. That means we need to do some pot odds math.
The odds of a Broncos win and say Bills loss (the next four teams are roughly equal) is 18 percent. The odds of a Bills win/Broncos loss is 12 percent. The risk ratio is therefore 1.5.
But if the Broncos lose in your hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, they'd take 38 people with them, leaving 62. But 12 other non-Bills owners would be projected to lose too, knocking it down to 50. So if your equity were $10 initially, it would double to $20 with only half the entrants remaining.
If the Bills lost instead, only 13 people would be out, plus the expected 12 non-Broncos owners for a total of 25, leaving 75. $1000/75 = $13.33. The reward ratio for taking the Bills instead of the Broncos is therefore 20/13.33 = 1.5!
It's an exact tie. Moreover, the Panthers, Cardinals and Ravens all have similar ownership numbers and odds, and even the Browns, 3.5 percent owned and Chiefs 1.7 percent have a small case.
Bottom line, pick whatever team in the top five you like better than the market.
My Picks
1. Denver Broncos
Pot odds being roughly equal, I'd split between the Broncos with their excellent defense at home, against a Jets team missing its top offensive lineman, and Ravens. I give the Broncos an 85 percent chance to win this game.
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens defense hasn't been great, but I'd expect them to run roughshod over a terrible Lions defense, even on the road, and Jared Goff eventually will make a big mistake. I give the Ravens an 80 percent chance to win this game. (Coin flip with the Broncos for my pick.)
3. Carolina Panthers
I don't typically like road teams off a short week, but the Texans are playing Davis Mills at quarterback against a Carolina defense that's been stout so far. I give the Panthers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
4. Buffalo Bills
The Football Team's defense hasn't been good so far, and that's the stronger of their two units. That said, the Bills lost at home to the Steelers and were gifted a win when Tua Taglovailoa got hurt early in Week 2. I give the Bills a 77 percent chance to win this game.
5. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals looked great in Week 1, but last week were lucky to win when Greg Joseph missed a field goal. Now they go on the road against arguably the league's worst team, but if the light bulb goes on for Trevor Lawrence, this game would be dangerous. I give the Cardinals a 76 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Cleveland Browns -- I don't like how thin they are at receiver or that they lost Jedrick Wills. Justin Fields is potentially dangerous too with his running ability.
Kansas City Chiefs -- Their defense isn't great, and the Chargers can shoot it out with them.
