Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills and Ravens are both Super Bowl contenders and feature two of the league's top MVP candidates at quarterback, making for an unusually high-stakes Sunday night contest as the Bills head to Baltimore. Both teams are mostly healthy, but at just 1-2 the Ravens are in a much more perilous position than the 3-0 Bills. Even with the cushy record, the Bills will doubtlessly go into this game focused and even somewhat rested after barely needing to try to smother the Jaguars and Dolphins over the last two weeks. The Ravens are favored by 2.5 points with the over/under at 46.

QUARTERBACKS

Maybe more than any player in the league, Josh Allen is extremely difficult to leave off a single-game slate lineup. Chalky or not, Allen claims such a disproportionate share of Buffalo's offensive production that there's just no real comparison to the presence he holds on single-game slates. If Allen doesn't go the Bills offense almost always didn't either, so if the Bills are competitive in this game (why wouldn't they be?) then it almost categorically means Allen was enjoying some amount of success. This is a tough defense and the Ravens tend to play better at home, but there's still no obvious evidence that Allen is in more danger than the Ravens defense here.

Lamar Jackson is always very difficult to fade on a single-game slate, but for some lineup builds it might simply prove too expensive to have both him and Allen in a lineup, and Jackson takes up a smaller share percentage of the Ravens' overall production than Allen does the Bills. Plus, the Ravens pass-catching personnel has yet to look good this year and the Bills secondary is always very well coached. Or to put it another way, if Jackson is the clearly correct answer between himself and Allen it probably meant the Ravens dominated, and that doesn't seem terribly likely.

RUNNING BACKS

Derrick Henry took over the game for Baltimore last week, but the Buffalo run defense is much better than the Dallas one. If Henry can overpower and exhaust the will of the Bills defense then he could steamroll his way to another big game here, but it will likely be a challenge for the Ravens to both feed Henry early in the game and safely avoid three-and-outs. Henry is at his best later in games, but can the Ravens keep it close that long? Answers to questions like that will hold extreme sway over which lineup builds cash in this game. Justice Hill tends to play when the Ravens fall behind, but not much otherwise. If you fade Henry and go with Hill, you should probably build the rest of your lineup as if assuming the Ravens got beat badly.

James Cook has been red hot the last two weeks, though in both the case of Jacksonville and Miami the defenses barely showed up. The Ravens presumably will show up here, and with that Cook might be less capable of producing big plays and therefore end up more dependent on touchdown and reception opportunities than usual. The good news for Cook is that he has held off rookie fourth-round pick Ray Davis, who continues to rotate with Ty Johnson as co-backups to Cook. If Davis or/and Johnson are more productive than Cook it would probably mean something odd happened, but there is some conceivable way Davis or Johnson could end up cash-viable.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Khalil Shakir has been the clear WR1 for Buffalo to this point, but it has still been a horizontally-oriented rotation where Shakir only narrowly outproduces the likes of Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins. Hollins is mostly a blocker but should play often, while Samuel is a true wildcard as he seemingly slowly works his way back from this training camp turf toe injury. Coleman will likely take snaps in this game that went to Marquez Valdes-Scantling in last week's blowout. Rather than any wide receiver it's possible the Bills' leading pass catcher in this game will be Dalton Kincaid at tight end, who the Bills have probably been slow-rolling through three games to save their best tricks for a game like this. Dawson Knox is always a candidate to pop up at tight end, too, but the Bills really need either Kincaid or Coleman to get going in the passing game in this one, because Shakir will need more assistance than he did in the first three weeks.

Zay Flowers has been highly ineffective this year and it's not as if the Ravens are using Rashod Bateman much better, but Flowers in particular almost has to get more going, even if only by default. The Bills defense is very well coached and schemed, however, so it's possible that the entire Ravens passing game struggles again this week. It would probably help if they would get Mark Andrews going as a big-play threat down the seam, but Andrews barely played in Week 3 and it's tough to tell if he's maybe playing through a slight injury. If Andrews fades from the picture then Isaiah Likely will almost certainly seize the void, and this could very well be another active game for Likely (but probably only if Andrews is invisible). Charlie Kolar is a good tight end prospect himself, but he'll probably play less in this game than he did in Week 3, when the Ravens raced to an early big lead over Dallas. If not Flowers or Bateman, the best candidate to catch the ball at receiver would be Nelson Agholor.

KICKERS

Justin Tucker needs no real introduction, but he has quietly been on a clear descent trajectory the last three years and goes into this week just 5-of-8 on field goal attempts, missing both of his attempts from 50-plus and one of his three from between 40 and 49 yards. The Ravens like to lean on Tucker no matter the game script, but if he's less effective than in the past the Ravens might not be as quick to call on him as during Tucker's peak seasons. Still, he's probably best understood as a double-digit fantasy point threat on a single-game slate until further notice.

Tyler Bass historically was a clear tier or two beneath Tucker as a kicker, but those days might be gone. If the offenses in this game move the ball but then struggle to convert yardage to touchdowns, it's possible that one or both of Bass and Tucker are important for the cashing equation on the slate. In the meantime, though, it might be worth recalling how aggressive the Bills offense is, understandably having confidence in Josh Allen's ability to consistently convert short-yardage fourth downs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Both of these defenses are quite capable, and neither quarterback in this game is truly infallible, but at the very least to pick one of these defenses on this slate is to somewhat doubt the opponent in question.

The Ravens are the slight favorites at home and have no doubt circled this game since the start of the year, but so far Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense have endured very little resistance from opposing defenses, so it would probably be hasty to assume the Ravens have real advantage over the Buffalo offense. If the Bills have an off day and Allen commits uncharacteristic turnovers, however, anyone who had the Ravens on their lineup card will probably be happy with their decision.

The Bills defense is arguably the more proven of the two in this game, as their front seven features both a strong defense and lively pass rush while their secondary is always one of the best-coached in the league under Sean McDermott. The Ravens pass-catching personnel is not convincing, so the Bills defense could be on the hunt here despite being road underdogs.