Streaming Defenses: Week 16 Fantasy Options for Team Defenses

The format here is a little different now that there are only two weeks remaining in most fantasy leagues. The article will still run Week 18, but everything below will focus on Weeks 16-17 since most of you don't care about the final week of the season (at least for fantasy purposes).

Playoff Grid

Out of the 12 teams listed above for Week 16, eight also project as top-12 plays for Week 17. Leading the way are Denver and Buffalo, both ranked Top 5 for the next two weeks. I had the Chiefs as my top playoff defense at one point, but that changed the past couple weeks with Cincinnati's Jake Browning playing better than most expected and Justin Herbert suffering a season-ending injury. The Bills and Broncos stand to benefit from Herbert's absence, and both also happen to be fighting for wild-card spots.

With playoff races and bye-week competition tight in both conferences, we shouldn't have to worry about many teams resting starters, apart from maybe the Ravens or 49ers in Week 18 if one of them wins their next two games (they play each other Monday night). The Cowboys and/or Eagles might also end up in rest-worthy scenarios, but not before Week 18.

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 16

1. Denver Broncos (vs. NE)

• 48% Yahoo, 15% ESPN
• Team implied total: 20.25     Opponent implied total: 13.75

Patriots-Broncos has the smallest over/under of the week and the fourth-largest spread, with Denver fighting for a playoff spot while New England battles for a top-three pick. I'll happily bet on the Broncos rebounding from Saturday's embarrassment in Detroit, as they had a strong two-month stretch of defensive performances before that and now have both rest advantage and homefield advantage against a Patriots offense led by QB Bailey Zappe. 

While he might be a slight upgrade on the 2023 version of Mac Jones, nobody will mistake Zappe for a quality NFL starter. At this point, the Patriots are trying to figure out if he's worth keeping around as the No. 2 QB ahead of Jones. They desperately need to draft or sign a real starter this offseason, be it for Bill Belichick or whoever might replace him.

2. Green Bay Packers (at CAR)

• 48% Yahoo, 45% ESPN
• Team implied total: 20.75     Opponent implied total: 15.75

The Packers have too much defensive talent to get humiliated by Baker Mayfield the way they did last week, even if we cut them a break for having two starters missing from the secondary. The good news for Green Bay is that Carolina's offense is about three tiers below even Tampa Bay's, and there's even some chance CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder) and/or S Darnell Savage (shoulder) will make it back this week. The main appeal, of course, is a matchup with the Panthers, a team that's allowed the third most fantasy points to D/STs and hasn't scored 20 points since Week 5. Every defense to face the Panthers since their Week 7 bye has scored at least seven fantasy points.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (at PIT)

• 48% Yahoo, 16% ESPN
• Team implied total: 19.75     Opponent implied total: 17.75

I didn't think I'd ever support Mason Rudolph starting another NFL game, but Mitch Trubisky's magical ability to get worse with each passing year remains undefeated. Enter Rudolph, who has completed 61.5 percent of his 387 NFL passes for 6.1 YPA, with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Most of his playing time came in 2019, and he hasn't made a start since 2021. A change may have been necessary, but that doesn't mean Rudolph will be significantly better than the man he's replacing. This battle of backup QBs has the third-smallest over/under (37.5) of Week 16.

4. Seattle Seahawks (at TEN)

• 18% Yahoo, 19% ESPN
• Team implied total: 20.75     Opponent implied total: 19.25

Coming off an upset over the Eagles on Monday night, the Seahawks are in decent position for a wild-card spot heading into this road matchup with Tennessee. It's a bit of an odd situation in terms of fantasy value, as we'll probably want to drop Seattle a couple spots in the rankings if Tennessee's starting QB doesn't play. The decision to swap out Ryan Tannehill for Will Levis (ankle) appears to have been the right one, but not because the rookie is already better than his veteran counterpart (he's not). The Titans were going nowhere with Tannehill in any case, but I still think the 35-year-old would give them a slightly better chance to win this week's game. The ideal scenario for Seattle's defense is if Levis gets the start but has limited mobility due to his ankle sprain.

5. Chicago Bears (vs. ARZ)

• 15% Yahoo, 10% ESPN
• Team implied total: 24.25     Opponent implied total: 20.25

The Chicago defense has been a pleasant surprise, both in real-life and fantasy terms. The Bears have scored seven or more fantasy points in five straight games, including double-digits the past three, and they've intercepted 12 passes over their past four outings. That's more interceptions than 18 teams have for the entire season, including some with strong defenses like Baltimore and Kansas City. Sure, that's partly an advertisement for the randomness of interceptions (and D/ST scoring), but we should also note that the Bears rank third in YPC allowed (3.5) and seem to have at least partially figured out the pass-defense thing. In addition to all the picks, they have five straight games with multiple sacks, allowing 20 or fewer points in four of those.

Week 16 Rankings

1. Broncos (vs. NE)
2. Chiefs (vs. LV)
3. Bills (at LAC)
4. Eagles (vs. NYG)
5. Packers (at CAR)
6. Jets (vs. WAS)
7. Bengals (at PIT)
8. Steelers (vs. CIN)
9. Seahawks (at TEN)
10. Bears (vs. ARZ)
11. Rams (vs. NO)
12. Texans (vs. CLE)
13. Commanders (at NYJ)
14. Colts Bills(at ATL)
15. Lions (at MIN)
16. Browns (at HOU)
17. 49ers (vs. BAL)
18. Cardinals (at CHI)
19. Jaguars (at TB)
20. Falcons (vs. IND)

Looking Ahead to Week 17

1. Bills (vs. NE)
2. 49ers (at WAS)
3. Browns (vs. NYJ)
4. Jaguars (vs. CAR)
5. Broncos (vs. LAC)
6. Rams (at NYG) 
7. Seahawks (vs. PIT)
8. Chiefs (vs. CIN)
9. Jets (at CLE)
10. Bears (vs. ATL)
11. Texans (vs. TEN)
12. Falcons (at CHI)
13. Colts (vs. LV)
14. Eagles (vs. ARZ)
15. Packers (at MIN)
16. Cowboys (vs. DET)
17. Buccaneers (vs. NO)
18. Vikings (vs. GB)
19. Saints (at TB)
20. Steelers (at SEA)