Targeting the best player at a position, or even multiple such elite performers, is rarely a bad fantasy football strategy. The NFL players below are projected to lead their respective positions in fantasy points in 2023. Projections vary across different fantasy football platforms, and the ones below are from ESPN.com.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (370.8 projected fantasy points)
Mahomes is projected to lead all players in fantasy points again in 2023 after doing so with a whopping 417.4 fantasy points in 2023. The Chiefs' quarterback didn't miss a beat despite losing star WR Tyreek Hill in the 2022 offseason, and questions about Kansas City's WR room in 2023 are unlikely to hold Mahomes back considering he still has reliable top target TE Travis Kelce to work with.
Mahomes led the NFL in both passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41) last season, and that output isn't out of the norm for a player who has topped 4,700 yards and 37 touchdowns in four of his five seasons as a starter. The difference between Mahomes and top quarterbacks that get a larger percentage of their fantasy points from rushing -- such as Josh Allen (357.7 projected fantasy points), Jalen Hurts (337.9), and Lamar Jackson (328.7) -- is even larger in formats that count passing touchdowns for six fantasy points rather than the standard four. In addition to his league-best passing production, Mahomes also uses his legs much more than the likes of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady offered in their heydays, as he's topped 300 rushing yards in each of the past three seasons and scored multiple rushing touchdowns in every year that he's been a starter.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (274.5 projected fantasy points) and Austin Ekeler (274.7)
Most fantasy football platforms give McCaffrey the edge, but he and Ekleler are in a virtual tie atop ESPN's RB projections. McCaffrey and Ekeler both check every box – they contribute as both rushers and pass catchers, and play for good offenses that provide frequent scoring opportunities. Case in point, Ekeler scored 18 scrimmage touchdowns for the Chargers last year en route to a position-best 272.7 fantasy points, while McCaffrey found the end zone 10 times in 11 games after being traded to the 49ers. The 27-year-old McCaffrey has the higher ceiling considering he once topped 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in one season (2019 with Carolina) while Ekeler has never reached 1,000 yards in either individual category, but McCaffrey's also been more injury-prone in recent years than the 28-year-old Ekeler.
Injuries wreak havoc on running backs more than any other position in fantasy, so it's entirely plausible that any member of this second tier of RBs outperforms both McCaffrey and Ekeler, but there's some potential deficiency keeping each of these six players from being the projected top RB. Bijan Robinson (254.8) is unproven, and Atlanta's 2023 first-round pick could cede substantial work to holdovers Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, the latter of whom is listed at J for Joker rather than RB on the Falcons' depth chart. Saquon Barkley (254.0) has been even more injury-prone than McCaffrey. Derrick Henry's (257.4) gargantuan workload has to catch up to the 29-year-old at some point, and he doesn't catch the ball as much as the players listed before him. Tony Pollard (244.8) has never been a workhorse back before. Nick Chubb (238.6) has never reached 300 receiving yards in a season. Josh Jacobs (249.0) held out this offseason, and last year's 2,053 scrimmage yards topped his previous best by over 700.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson (322.2 projected fantasy points)
In his third NFL season last year, Jefferson led the league in both catches (128) and receiving yards (1,809) while pacing all wide receivers with 368.7 fantasy points. Set to reprise his role as the clear No. 1 receiver for QB Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, Jefferson's not only projected to remain the top fantasy WR in 2023, he's considered the consensus No. 1 overall pick in PPR formats, regardless of position. Players that could challenge Jefferson for the top spot at WR include Ja'Marr Chase (313.7 projected fantasy points), Hill (293.7), Davante Adams (287.1), Cooper Kupp (265.2) and Stefon Diggs (263.0).
Chase and Diggs both have elite QBs in Joe Burrow and Allen, respectively, but the former has to share some of the spotlight with fellow Cincinnati WR Tee Higgins, while the latter is approaching 30 years old and hasn't posted a 1,600-yard season -- a mark Jefferson has topped in each of the past two years. Like Diggs, Hill is 29, and like Chase, he has a high volume WR opposite him in Jaylen Waddle, plus the guy throwing them the ball is Tua Tagovailoa -- one of the league's most injury-prone QBs.
Adams turns 31 in December, and while he led the league with 14 receiving TDs last season while topping 1,500 yards for the second year in a row, he'll have to build chemistry with new Vegas QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who's almost as injury-prone as Tua. Kupp has arguably the highest ceiling of the non-Jefferson crowd considering he led the league with a whopping 1,947 receiving yards in 2021, but he's far from a sure thing due to injuries. A knee injury cost Kupp eight games last season, and he has already been ruled out of the Rams' 2023 season opener with a hamstring injury.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (279.4 projected fantasy points)
The second member of Kansas City's offense on this list has a far larger gap between himself and other players at his position, as Mark Andrews (206.3) is the only other tight end projected to top 200 fantasy points in ESPN's standard PPR format. Kelce led all tight ends with 316.3 fantasy points in 2022, and he has exceeded 1,000 yards in each of the past seven seasons, with 2022 marking the third time over that span that he's topped 1,300 yards.
After Kelce and Andrews come T.J. Hockenson (192.4), Darren Waller (186.1), and George Kittle (165.1), all of whom have lower ceilings when healthy and more significant injury concerns. During Kelce's seven-year stretch of 1,000-yard seasons, we have seen seasons of 1,100-plus receiving yards from Kittle (2018), Andrews (2021), Waller (2019 and 2020), and Zach Ertz (2018), so there's often another tight end or two sharing Kelce's rarified air, but Mahomes' favorite target has been the only one reaching such heights year in and year out. The durable Kelce has played at least 15 games in each of the past eight seasons, and after having an injury scare with his knee earlier this week, he appears to have escaped with just a bone bruise that's unlikely to jeopardize that streak.
Kicker
Justin Tucker (146.2 projected fantasy points)
Tucker remains the gold standard among kickers. He finished one point back of first with 158.0 ESPN fantasy points in 2022, while leading the NFL in both made (37) and attempted (43) field goals. In the preceding season, Baltimore's star kicker led the league in accuracy by making 35 of 37 FGA, including a season-long, 66-yard game-winning buzzer beater off the crossbar and in against Detroit.
Daniel Carlson and Brett Maher tied for the NFL point lead among kickers last season at 159.0, but the latter took until just before the season to latch on with the Rams after missing five of six PAT attempts across two postseason games with Dallas. He's on LA's practice squad but is expected to kick for the Rams in Week 1 with no kicker currently on the roster. Maher's projected to post a respectable 133.1 fantasy points for his new team. The kickers projected to top 140 ESPN fantasy points alongside Tucker are Carlson (140.6), Evan McPherson (143.7), Jake Elliott (142.4), Harrison Butker (142.2) and Graham Gano (140.2).
Team Defense
Saints D/ST (134.1 projected fantasy points), 49ers D/ST (133.6) and Steelers D/ST (133.5)
Defenses are notoriously hard to project and can fluctuate greatly on a year-to-year basis, so these projections should be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, the 49ers are a sensible choice at the top given their multi-year track record of elite point suppression, coupled with plenty of sacks and turnovers. San Francisco's 156.0 ESPN fantasy points in 2022 were third-most in the NFL, behind New England (173.0) and Philadelphia (158.0), and just ahead of Dallas (153.0).
The 49ers top ESPN's rankings list, but by pure point projections, the Saints come in at No. 1 by half a point. New Orleans tied for 12th with a respectable 105.0 fantasy points in 2023, and the NFC South favorites could be bolstered by a schedule that looks favorable on paper, including a pair of division games apiece against Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. Pittsburgh's surprisingly just 0.1 points behind San Francisco, even though the Steelers were a situational streamer at best last season, finishing tied for 18th with 97.0 fantasy points after a 21st-place finish in 2021. If 2021 DPOY T.J. Watt can stay healthy after missing seven games last year, Pittsburgh's potent pass rush could rocket this unit back into the upper echelon of fantasy defenses.
