In the two seasons on both sides of his 2020 ACL tear, Courtland Sutton had one great season along with a terrible one. Which version of Sutton will we see this year?
Upside
Despite playing with the trio of Joe Flacco, Drew Lock and Brandon Allen in 2019, Sutton posted more than 1,100 yards and six scores on just 125 targets. On nine occasions, he surpassed 70 yards. He also had 18 receptions of at least 20 yards. He now has Russell Wilson at QB, who has had success as a downfield passer. On a team with excellent weapons, it's unlikely defenses will sell out to stop Sutton. If the Broncos make Wilson the centerpiece of the offense, Sutton should see at least 120 targets, giving him a chance for a career year.
Downside
Even though he had a full calendar year to recover from his ACL injury, Sutton failed to reach 800 yards in 17 games in 2021. However, the Broncos ran the ball often and tried to keep games low scoring, which led to him averaging fewer than six targets per game. Although his lack of production can be tied to playing with checkdown-artist Teddy Bridgewater much of the season, Sutton surpassed 60 yards just four times. And while new coach Nathaniel Hackett's offense is expected to revolve around Wilson's passing, Aaron Rodgers attempted just 33 passes per game the last two years with Hackett as his offensive coordinator in Green Bay. If that occurs, and if Sutton isn't the same player after suffering the injury, he could struggle to reach 900 yards.
The Verdict
Wilson supported two strong fantasy WRs during his days in Seattle, and along with Jerry Jeudy, Sutton gives him an excellent duo in Denver. With Sutton excellent at winning contested catches, expect the offense to play to his strengths. Overall, Sutton should easily top 1,000 yards and five TDs with upside for significantly more. For a player who'll likely be available more than 50 picks into drafts, I'll have plenty of shares at that reasonable price.
