NFL Week 5 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

The beginning of October is always my re-assessment phase, whether it be for fantasy or picking against the spread. There's enough data out there, and at least for this season, enough film, to make accurate assessments on all the troublesome teams. Obviously there's going to be pitfall matchups/weeks, but entering this stretch of overseas games + a plethora of key teams on byes, I want to be a bit more solidified in my approach.

Below you'll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 3 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week. 

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks For Each Game

NFL Week 5 Byes

• Eagles
• Chargers
• Titans
• Lions

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Week 4 Record ATS: 10-6
Week 4 Record on Totals: 7-9

Season Record ATS: 38-24-2
Season Record on Totals: 31-33

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 5 odds and our predictions for each NFL game. Home teams are listed last.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons

I don't do the "well, this injury impacts things dramatically" too often, but I'm not really going near this spread if Mike Evans (knee/calf) doesn't play. That he practiced in limited fashion gives me enough confidence to say that the one win condition in which I think the Falcons have -- sitting on the ball and limiting explosive plays from Tampa Bay's offense -- is out the window.

There's probably some home-field advantage that I should be more mindful of, but I think the Buccaneers are a significantly better team, and more importantly, know exactly who they are and what they're trying to do week to week.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers +1.5
Total Pick: Over 43.5

Jets vs. Vikings

The Vikings are a legitimately good team. I don't think this is anything like that one year in which they had an insane record in one-score games and then promptly lost in embarrassing fashion to Daniel Jones in the playoffs.

That being said, Minnesota is due to not play above their projected baseline in all three phases at least once. They're really good, but they're not perfect. An overseas game for a franchise not super familiar with that cadence seems like a perfect place to fall flat especially after a significant win over a division rival. Meanwhile the Jets are a team that can beat anyone, and also lose to anyone. This just feels like a contest they'll get up for, and that might be all it takes if one unit of Minnesota's doesn't play the level they have through four weeks.

Spread Pick: Jets +2.5
Total Pick: Over 40.5

Panthers vs. Bears

Vegas was not real kind with so many half-point markers this week. Chicago's defense should do enough to win this, but I'd feel far more confident if a push would be in play as opposed to a four-point win.

I've wavered on the over/under total quite a bit, which I thought was worth noting. Neither offense is particularly good, but Andy Dalton makes the offense at least competent, which probably pushes back against some of the models Vegas might deploy. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this was a 24-20 kind of outcome, so maybe teasing a higher under is the smarter action with this contest. 

Spread Pick: Bears -3.5
Total Pick: Under 42

Browns vs. Commanders

There's no hotter/hyped team than the Commanders right now. That always makes me anxious, especially when no one was projecting them to play at this level because these types of instances always has a team fall back a level or two at some point in the year.

I just don't think it'll happen against the Browns, who seem to be in a complete tailspin. It's like the Jaguars in the sense that I think both teams have a plethora of talent, but the locker room/coach situation is such a negative that losing supersedes any sort of talent advantage. Yet another half-point dilemma is noteworthy, but I feel more comfortable with the Commanders than I do the Bears for example.

Spread Pick: Commanders -3.5
Total Pick: Over 44.5

Ravens vs. Bengals

If there's one thing I've been susceptible to this year is the Vegas rat line; a line that at first glance looks so wrong you assume something is inaccurate. It's obviously a bit subjective, but I bet if I went back and looked I'm maybe like 1-4 against those lines this year.

The Ravens have been playing excellent football as of late and the Bengals...haven't, but it's a divisional game and obviously more important for Cincinnati given the backfoot they're playing on from a playoff perspective. Vegas is certainly expecting the Bengals to show up with this line, and that alone makes me suspicious.

Spread Pick: Bengals +2.5
Total Pick: Under 50.5

Colts vs. Jaguars

This will be one of the only times I'm allowing a mid-week change of my record depending on a situation. If Joe Flacco starts this game, which doesn't seem likely right now, the Colts will win. I think truthfully even if he plays in it (like last week), Indy should take care of business, but that's a weird way to quantify things given how mindful I am about my week-to-week record.

If Anthony Richardson plays, however, then even Doug Pederson and the Jaguars will take care of business. The Colts have lost nine consecutive times at Jacksonville dating back to 2015. That's a pretty damning stat even if the results of 2015 shouldn't have an impact on a game in 2024. The ELITE Flacco could change that, but I think the Colts organization might be too afraid to recognize that outcome.

Spread Pick: Jaguars -2.5
Total Pick: Under 46.5

Bills vs. Texans

Given the torture of the game below us, this is a relative mid-Sunday treat. I'd feel a lot better about this game if it was in Buffalo, but the Texans just haven't quite seemed like the team you'd expect entering the year.

Meanwhile the Bills have absolutely surprised me in a good way, last Sunday's trouncing by the Ravens not withstanding. There's going to be a point in time where the Texans eventually get back to being one of the best three teams in the AFC, but given their pitiful division, there's really no rush. 

Spread Pick: Bills -1
Total Pick: Over 47.5

Dolphins vs. Patriots

There's really no analysis needed on this. These are two bad teams incapable of scoring more than three times in a game.

Spread Pick: Patriots +1
Total Pick: Under 35.5

Cardinals vs. 49ers

This is just another NFC West curveball in my mind. I think the 49ers will win, but right now they just shouldn't be favored by more than a touchdown over any team that can function relatively well. The Cardinals also seem to succeed when the expectations are incredibly low, and Kyler Murray's mobility might offset the Niners best advantage, their pass rush, long enough to exploit the secondary.

Spread Pick: Cardinals +7.5
Total Pick: Over 49.5

Raiders vs. Broncos

I'm assuming Maxx Crosby (ankle) will be back this week, but I guess I'm not certain that matters all that much. The Broncos will probably move the ball a bit better this week after playing in rainy conditions over the Jets, but it's just hard to have a lot of faith in either offense at the moment.

I think the Davante Adams saga is going to be something the team rallies around (even though they shouldn't), and the Raiders always seem to get ready for divisional games. Give me the better team in an otherwise close contest.

Spread Pick: Raiders +2.5
Total Pick: Under 36.5

Packers vs. Rams

You could call this a bit of a Vegas rat line as well because I assume the Packers probably should be favored more given all of Los Angeles' injuries. I actually think it'll be close, closer than people might assume, but another week of getting healthier should only benefit Jordan Love.

For whatever the reason, this week just about every sportsbook was sparse on prop options for both the early and later Sunday slates. I would imagine this will be an attractive one from a SGP perspective, but I don't have any information to confirm that.

Spread Pick: Packers -3
Total Pick: Over 48

Giants vs. Seahawks

I think the Giants are confidently better than the Dolphins (with Tua Tagovailo injured), Patriots and Titans of the world, but I'm uncertain if they're in the mix of the Raiders/Bears/Cardinals grouping, or a tier below that in the doldrums of semi bad teams in the NFL.

The answer is that they probably waffle between those zones week to week. Malik Nabers didn't practice Wednesday, but that's not uncommon nor does that mean he'll miss Sunday's contest. His absence would obviously be difficult, but I think it more affects the possibility of a backdoor cover.

Spread Pick: Seahawks -6
Total Pick: Over 43.5

Cowboys vs. Steelers

As a dieheard Packers fan, this is the exact kind of game a team coached by Mike McCarthy will win. Down multiple big-name defensive players? Check. Operating an offense that seems incredibly inefficient, but still produces more than you'd expect week to week? Check. Add in that the Steelers are probably a bit of a surprising favorite, and this just seems like a recipe for success for Dallas.

You read that correct -- there's literally no reason for them to be favored, but yet because of that, it's why I think they will win. Welcome to the 2018 Green Ba...I mean 2024 edition of the Cowboys.

Spread Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Total Pick: Over 43

Saints vs. Chiefs

This is going to be a daunting six weeks as I suspect the Chiefs will be favored in maybe all but one game over the next month and a half, and yet outside of a contest against the Broncos in Week 10, I'd be a bit surprised if they win, much less cover.

Andy Reid is one of the best coaches of all time and Patrick Mahomes is already in that conversation for best quarterbacks, so that duo will just help you prevail even in the most adverse situations. But man, does it need to be this adverse? The offense will have to break the Travis Kelce glass in case of emergency by default, but even that I'm not confident will completely solve the offensive woes that were occurring even before Rashee Rice's knee injury. I don't know if the Saints will win, but I do think they'll be in position to cover.

Spread Pick: Saints +5
Total Pick: Over 42

NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite best bets across NFL betting sites. We went 4-6 in best bets last week effectively due to Anthony Richardson's hip injury. Unfortunate, but we're onto Week 5. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 5

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 5. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 5 at BetMGM.

• (-140) Two-team 6.5-point teaser -- Over 42 points LAR/GB and NO (+12)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 5

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 5. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

• Jets +2.5 +(100)
• Bengals +2.5 (+100)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 5

 DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 5 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

• Saints +5.5 (-108)
• Packers moneyline (-155)
• (+150) Three-team 6.5-point teaser - over 29.5 total between LV/DEN, over 37 total between NO/KC and over 34 total between NYJ/MIN

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 5

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

• Buccaneers NFC South division winner (+195)
• Season Leaders > Most Passing Yards between Week 5-9 > Jordan Love (+500)
• Season Leaders > Most Passing Yards between Week 5-9 > Baker Mayfield (+1300)
• Season Leaders > Most Rushing Yards between Week 5-9 > Kenneth Walker (+2600)

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 5

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 5.

• Under 4.5 touchdowns between ATL/TB (+116)

Fanatics Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 5

Fanatics Sportsbook is ringing in its first full NFL season. You can get in on the action at Fanatics by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo for up to $1,000 in bonus bets over the first 10 days that your account is active. Here are our favorite picks this week using odds at Fanatics Sportsbook.

• First team to punt between WAS/CLE -- CLE (-125)

Look ahead at the NFL Week 6 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.